By my calculations, L8E skip is 1 in 40,320.

So it's not THAT much less likely than a LL skip, especially if he was intentionally preserving edges while finishing the centers/cross.
 
I think L8E skip is be 1/(15*13*11*9*7*5*3) = 1/2027025. So about half as likely as a pyraminx scramble that only affects the tips. Obviously preserving some edges would increase this a lot.

Shouldn't it be more likely than that due to the fact that it doesn't matter where each of the 8 edges is? (Maybe multiply by 8! ?)

EDIT: Something is telling me it isn't that simple, but I can't think right now
 
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Shouldn't it be more likely than that due to the fact that it doesn't matter where each of the 8 edges is? (Maybe multiply by 8! ?)

EDIT: Something is telling me it isn't that simple, but I can't think right now
No he should be right, there are 16 wings, the first doesn't matter, the second has a 1/15 chance of being the matching wing, etc.
But assuming he didn't have parity it should also be divided by 4, right?
 
Assuming you are correct, that's nearly thrice as unlikely as an LL skip.

So considering Jacob preserved some edges...

I think L8E skip is be 1/(15*13*11*9*7*5*3) = 1/2027025. So about half as likely as a pyraminx scramble that only affects the tips. Obviously preserving some edges would increase this a lot.

There were already 1 or two solved that I saw in centers, plus I did last cross edge differently to get 2 more...

Still, wow.

Edit: Wow, I just got 2 solves in with sub-10 cross+centers.
 
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PB ao50, no time for 44 more solves, might do it later, considering a bad average of 50+this one would be pb ao100

number of times: 58/58
best time: 1.94
worst time: 6.53


best avg5: 2.99 (σ = 0.27)
best avg12: 3.43 (σ = 0.54)
best avg50: 3.65 (σ = 0.61)
session avg: 3.73 (σ = 0.66)
 
There were already 1 or two solved that I saw in centers, plus I did last cross edge differently to get 2 more...

Still, wow.

Edit: Wow, I just got 2 solves in with sub-10 cross+centers.

So you solved 4 noncross edges during centres/last cross edge yet consider it an l8e skip? I think an l8e skip is perfectably legitimate, I've had 5 of the last 3 edges skip once, and you do significantly more 4x4 than me, so I had little doubt you had an l8e skip.

But if you forced 4 edges, presumably 3-4+moves per edge, I'm surprised you got a 21 o_O. Doing normal 323 pairing, each edge averages out to be 3-4 moves, so it sounds like only a slightly lucky solve. Slightly lucky 21... gj I guess?
 
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