Who will win worlds?

Who will win worlds?

  • Max Park

    Votes: 30 22.6%

  • Feliks Zemdegs

    Votes: 83 62.4%

  • Seung Hyuk Nahm

    Votes: 4 3.0%

  • Sebastian Weyer

    Votes: 1 0.8%

  • Lucas Etter

    Votes: 3 2.3%

  • Mats Valk

    Votes: 5 3.8%

  • Kian Mansour

    Votes: 7 5.3%

  • Drew Brads

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    133
I don't think looking at their average PB is the best way to know who the faster cubers are. For example Sebastian Weyer's WR is a lucky average for him, his averages are normally quite higher. Simply looking at the average of their last 10 Avg5 would be a much better indicator of how fast they actually are:

1. Max Park 6.89
2. Feliks Zemdegs 6.896
3. Lucas Etter 7.427
4. Seung Hyuk Nahm 7.503
5. Patrick Ponce 7.665
6. Mats Valk 7.699
7. Philip Weyer 7.712
8. Bill Wang 7.722
9. Drew Brads 7.735
10. Cornelius Dieckmann 7.835
11. Sebastian Weyer 8.068
12. Kevin Gerhardt 8.266

I think this is roughly the ranking of the most likely to win. Note that Seung Hyuk Nahm improved a lot his results in his last competition, so this ranking might be underestimating his possibilities.
 
Last edited:
Gomorrite said:
I don't think looking at their average PB is the best way to know who the faster cubers are. For example Sebastian Weyer's WR is a lucky average for him, his averages are normally quite higher. Simply looking at the average of their last 10 Avg5 would be a much better indicator of how fast they actually are:

1. Max Park 6.89
2. Feliks Zemdegs 6.943
3. Lucas Etter 7.427
4. Seung Hyuk Nahm 7.503
5. Patrick Ponce 7.665
6. Mats Valk 7.699
7. Philip Weyer 7.712
8. Bill Wang 7.722
9. Drew Brads 7.735
10. Cornelius Dieckmann 7.835
11. Sebastian Weyer 8.068
12. Kevin Gerhardt 8.266

I think this is roughly the ranking of the most likely to win. Note that Seung Hyuk Nahm improved a lot his results in his last competition, so this ranking might be underestimating his possibilities.
Click to expand...
Actually the average of feliks's last 10 official averages is 6.89. Pretty cool that he and max are tied.
 
Another interesting fact: Zemdegs' average of 6.896 for his last 10 Avg5 is actually his fastest rolling average of 10 Avg5 in his whole cubing career, so he is right now at his absolute peak.

Max Park highest rolling average of 10 Avg5 is 6.872, and was reached just before making his very last Avg5.

Competition Cuber said:
I added in Kian because he is a very fast cuber who uses a method other then CFOP. I wanted a non-CFOP user in there too.
Click to expand...
I predict he doesn't even make it to the final. :p

(I would actually like to be wrong, though)
 
Last edited:
Gomorrite said:
Another interesting fact: Zemdegs' average of 6.896 for his last 10 Avg5 is actually his fastest rolling average of 10 Avg5 in his whole cubing career, so he is right now at his absolute peak.

Max Park highest rolling average of 10 Avg5 is 6.872, and was reached just before making his very last Avg5.


I predict he doesn't even make it to the final. :p

(I would actually like to be wrong, though)
Click to expand...
Kian has pretty bad nerves and even if he made it to finals he would screw (haha roux and screw) up
 
As much as I like many of the other top cubers like Lucas, Bill Wang, Drew Brads, Sebastian, etc. I think Feliks, Mats, and Max have the best chance of not simply winning worlds, but going head-to-head in the finals.
Based on their past podiums in and outside of worlds (with the exception of maybe Jayden McNeil and Lucas), those three seem to very confidently podium and win the competitions they attend, and don't often mess up (or even tense up) as much as you might expect with such high stakes on the line.
I know people say that recent results have been really catching up with Feliks, for example... but no one is really as consistently fast as those three (and recently Seung Hyuk Nahm), so I'd be impressed if someone else won!
 
I am guessing Feliks or Max. I think that Seung, Mats, Sebastian, Lucas and Bill also have potential but really the only two who have been getting super fast consistently is Feliks or Max.
 
By the way, the previous weekend to World Championship, CubingUSA Nationals will have 6 out of 10 top 3x3 competitors and London Open will have another 3. So basically all top 10 except Seung Hyuk Nahm will be put to a final test just one week before!


Hello, it's me again. I run a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the likelyhood for each competitor to win the World Championship. The outcome is entirely based on their last 10 results in competition. It assumes normal distribution and same deviation for all competitors, which are some rough assumptions but should give a decent result anyway. Oh, and it also assumes that only this 12 people can win.

These are the results:

1. Max Park 41.67%
2. Feliks Zemdegs 40.93%
3. Lucas Etter 5.63%
4. Seung Hyuk Nahm 3.95%
5. Patrick Ponce 1.73%
6. Mats Valk 1.44%
7. Philip Weyer 1.35%
8. Bill Wang 1.28%
9. Drew Brads 1.17%
10. Cornelius Dieckmann 0.66%
11. Sebastian Weyer 0.14%
12. Kevin Gerhardt 0.03%

Good luck for those who are betting on Sebastian Weyer! :p
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Gomorrite said:
Hello, it's me again. I run a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the likelyhood for each competitor to win the World Championship. The outcome is entirely based on their last 10 results in competition. It assumes normal distribution and same deviation for all competitors, which are some rough assumptions but should give a decent result anyway. Oh, and it also assumes that only this 12 people can win.

These are the results:

1. Max Park 41.67%
2. Feliks Zemdegs 40.93%
3. Lucas Etter 5.63%
4. Seung Hyuk Nahm 3.95%
5. Patrick Ponce 1.73%
6. Mats Valk 1.44%
7. Philip Weyer 1.35%
8. Bill Wang 1.28%
9. Drew Brads 1.17%
10. Cornelius Dieckmann 0.66%
11. Sebastian Weyer 0.14%
12. Kevin Gerhardt 0.03%

Good luck for those who are betting on Sebastian Weyer! :p
Click to expand...

You should wait with those statistics till the day before worlds. You know, people improve.
 
Sajwo said:
You should wait with those statistics till the day before worlds. You know, people improve.
Click to expand...
I will update a few days before! In any case these top cubers don't improve so much anymore, so I wouldn't expect huge changes. Seung Hyuk Nahm is possibly the exception, but he just happens to be the only one who (I believe) is not registered to any other competition before World Championship.
Perfectionist said:
Are there any bookmakers who take bets on speedcubing competitions? :)
Click to expand...
Well, if there happens to be any, then Seung Hyuk Nahm is actually the biggest uncertainty so it should be an interesting bet. :D
 
bithovvinu said:
He is going to worlds.It's on the reg list
Click to expand...
The general attendance to this Worlds is exceptional. I don't any previous competition came even close. The events with weaker attendance will be 6x6 and 7x7, which lack many top cubers. And in general attendance of people from Asian countries is not the greatest. But then in 3x3 we have the top 13 ranked going to Worlds, and in 4x4 the top 16 are going!
 
Gomorrite said:
By the way, the previous weekend to World Championship, CubingUSA Nationals will have 6 out of 10 top 3x3 competitors and London Open will have another 3. So basically all top 10 except Seung Hyuk Nahm will be put to a final test just one week before!


Hello, it's me again. I run a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the likelyhood for each competitor to win the World Championship. The outcome is entirely based on their last 10 results in competition. It assumes normal distribution and same deviation for all competitors, which are some rough assumptions but should give a decent result anyway. Oh, and it also assumes that only this 12 people can win.

These are the results:

1. Max Park 41.67%
2. Feliks Zemdegs 40.93%
3. Lucas Etter 5.63%
4. Seung Hyuk Nahm 3.95%
5. Patrick Ponce 1.73%
6. Mats Valk 1.44%
7. Philip Weyer 1.35%
8. Bill Wang 1.28%
9. Drew Brads 1.17%
10. Cornelius Dieckmann 0.66%
11. Sebastian Weyer 0.14%
12. Kevin Gerhardt 0.03%

Good luck for those who are betting on Sebastian Weyer! :p
Click to expand...
I'd give Bill a better change then 1.28%
 
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