Probability Thread

[DemonicCuberad]

Whats The Chance of getting an OLL+PLL skip normally after completing F2L.(do you need VCS?)

 

[Nmile7300]

Whats The Chance of getting an OLL+PLL skip normally after completing F2L.(do you need VCS?)

You mean a last layer skip?

 

[DemonicCuberad]

I mean yeah. OLL+PLL Skip

 

[ProStar]

I mean yeah. OLL+PLL Skip

That's called an LL skip, and the probability is 1 / 15552. Also this is a really widely-posted probability, make sure you do your research before asking a question

 

[vidcapper]

I dare say this has been asked many times here before, but I can't seem to ask the right search questions...

What are the probabilities of the dot, 'L', bar & and cross after finishing F2L? The 'L' seems most common...

 

[Cubingcubecuber]

I might be wrong but

Cross=5/30
L=12/30
Bar=8/30
Dot=5/30

 

[xyzzy]

I dare say this has been asked many times here before, but I can't seem to ask the right search questions...

What are the probabilities of the dot, 'L', bar & and cross after finishing F2L? The 'L' seems most common...

There are 2^4 = 16 possible ways of assembling the last layer edges, if we look at only the edge orientation. Only 8 of these 16 ways will be solvable (since you can't have an odd number of bad edges), and if you don't do any LL influencing when solving F2L (but you should), the 8 solvable ways will show up equally frequently. These 8 solvable ways are (imagine "x" is the last layer colour):

. x .
x x x
. x .
(cross)

. x .
x x .
. . .
(L)

. x .
. x x
. . .
(L)

. x .
. x .
. x .
(bar)

. . .
x x x
. . .
(bar)

. . .
x x .
. x .
(L)

. . .
. x x
. x .
(L)

. . .
. x .
. . .
(dot)

Thus the probabilities are:
Cross: 1/8
Dot: 1/8
Bar: 2/8 = 1/4
L: 4/8 = 1/2

I might be wrong but

Cross=5/30
L=12/30
Bar=8/30
Dot=5/30

Legit curious about how in the world you got those numbers.

 

[vidcapper]

There are 2^4 = 16 possible ways of assembling the last layer edges, if we look at only the edge orientation. Only 8 of these 16 ways will be solvable (since you can't have an odd number of bad edges), and if you don't do any LL influencing when solving F2L (but you should), the 8 solvable ways will show up equally frequently. These 8 solvable ways are (imagine "x" is the last layer colour):

. x .
x x x
. x .
(cross)

. x .
x x .
. . .
(L)

. x .
. x x
. . .
(L)

. x .
. x .
. x .
(bar)

. . .
x x x
. . .
(bar)

. . .
x x .
. x .
(L)

. . .
. x x
. x .
(L)

. . .
. x .
. . .
(dot)

Thus the probabilities are:
Cross: 1/8
Dot: 1/8
Bar: 2/8 = 1/4
L: 4/8 = 1/2

Thanks for that - now I feel foolish that the calculation was so simple.

 

[ProStar]

Thanks for that - now I feel foolish that the calculation was so simple.

He makes everyone feel stupid, don't worry

 

[ToastyTwurtle]

What is the chance of getting a last layer skip? Also, has anybody gotten one? Just wondering.

 

[Jam88]

I got LL skip once and also

That's called an LL skip, and the probability is 1 / 15552. Also this is a really widely-posted probability, make sure you do your research before asking a question

 

[Cubingcubecuber]

Legit curious about how in the world you got those numbers.

30 ELL cases, 5 cross, 5 dot, 12 L and 8 Bar

 

[ProStar]

What is the chance of getting a last layer skip? Also, has anybody gotten one? Just wondering.

Search before asking a question. In this case, it was literally 3 posts ago

 

[ToastyTwurtle]

Search before asking a question. In this case, it was literally 3 posts ago

okayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy that might be a little hard to depend on during solves.
I have done 1300 recorded solves and i haven't ever gotten one. I thought i was unlucky but i guess im "normally lucky"

 

[Nmile7300]

okayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy that might be a little hard to depend on during solves.
I have done 1300 recorded solves and i haven't ever gotten one. I thought i was unlucky but i guess im "normally lucky"

That is completely unrelated to what @ProStar said and makes no sense.

 

[CodingCuber]

There are 2^4 = 16 possible ways of assembling the last layer edges, if we look at only the edge orientation. Only 8 of these 16 ways will be solvable (since you can't have an odd number of bad edges), and if you don't do any LL influencing when solving F2L (but you should), the 8 solvable ways will show up equally frequently. These 8 solvable ways are (imagine "x" is the last layer colour):

. x .
x x x
. x .
(cross)

. x .
x x .
. . .
(L)

. x .
. x x
. . .
(L)

. x .
. x .
. x .
(bar)

. . .
x x x
. . .
(bar)

. . .
x x .
. x .
(L)

. . .
. x x
. x .
(L)

. . .
. x .
. . .
(dot)

Thus the probabilities are:
Cross: 1/8
Dot: 1/8
Bar: 2/8 = 1/4
L: 4/8 = 1/2


Legit curious about how in the world you got those numbers.

But dot case can be avoided pretty much all the time as explained in one of @Owen Morrison 's videos.

 

[Spacey10]

okayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy that might be a little hard to depend on during solves.
I have done 1300 recorded solves and i haven't ever gotten one. I thought i was unlucky but i guess im "normally lucky"

That chances of you already getting one is about 1/15

 

[Jam88]

What is the chance of getting an EPLL skip with petrus?

 

[ProStar]

What is the chance of getting an EPLL skip with petrus?

The same chance as with any other method. Petrus doesn't influence EP at all, so it's still 1/12. Also this is another well-asked and answered question, please do your research

 

[Owen Morrison]

This has probably already been asked before, but what are the chances of a PLL skip on megaminx?