Probability Thread

[Cuberstache]

Here's a pi chart I made of the probability of each PLL.

How did you get these numbers? Most of them seem wrong.

 

[Brayden_Speedcuber]

How did you get these numbers? Most of them seem wrong.

I forget where I found them, but awhile back when I was learning PLL one PDF had the chances to get each PLL. For example I think H had 1/72 solves.

 

[Cuberstache]

I forget where I found them, but awhile back when I was learning PLL one PDF had the chances to get each PLL. For example I think H had 1/72 solves.

Well, you remembered some wrong. Most of them should be 4/72, not 5/72 or 5.5/72 (???)

 

[xyzzy]

Well, you remembered some wrong. Most of them should be 4/72, not 5/72 or 5.5/72 (???)

Gonna guess they're rounded to whole percents. 4/72 = 5.55555…% (Which is a weird thing to do, but hey.)

 

[Cuberstache]

Gonna guess they're rounded to whole percents. 4/72 = 5.55555…% (Which is a weird thing to do, but hey.)

Oh, that makes sense. They all added up to 93, so I wasn't really sure what's going on.

 

[PetraPine]

Chance of Oll skip with 2 Gen Last side(ZZ right block or petrus last block)
((R U))
Also chance of Oll skip with 2 Gen Last side for megaminx?

 

[Deleted member 51471]

Chance of Oll skip with 2 Gen Last side(ZZ right block or petrus last block)
((R U))
Also chance of Oll skip with 2 Gen Last side for megaminx?

The chance of an OLL skip with 2-gen on 3x3 is 1/27

 

[PetraPine]

The chance of an OLL skip with 2-gen on 3x3 is 1/27

also if you get sune/antisune and recog it you could cancel oll while inserting last pair which is nice

 

[YaleZ1023]

I just have to say this:

WOLFRAM ALPHA IS AMAZING

That is all.



That's actually quite funny. But how exactly were the odds of dying calculated?

After solving centers then edges, you most likely can't keep track of the scramble. Scramble was legit.

Hello, just thought somebody saying X said X said etc. looked cool.

 

[Spacey10]

Hello, just thought somebody saying X said X said etc. looked cool.

Woaj, near world record bump, 10 years!

 

[Jeff Dunham]

I asked in the probability thread the probability of having a WV case at last slot , and the answer turned out to be about 1/150.
But in practice, since a lot of f2l algs involve an (R U' R') insert at the end, I'd imagine that WV would actually appear more than 1/150 of the time.

So when actually solving, does WV appear a decent amount in cases where it is justified to use it? Like at least 1/50 chance?

 

[I'm A Cuber]

I asked in the probability thread the probability of having a WV case at last slot , and the answer turned out to be about 1/150.
But in practice, since a lot of f2l algs involve an (R U' R') insert at the end, I'd imagine that WV would actually appear more than 1/150 of the time.

So when actually solving, does WV appear a decent amount in cases where it is justified to use it? Like at least 1/50 chance?

You will have a wv case 1/8 times
Edit: but you can influence eo to make it slightly more common

 

[RadicalMacaroni]

Anybody know the probability of a 2x2 scramble with no bars already made?

 

[SpeedyCube]

What are the chances of skipping PLL on a 2x2? I just got a 9.65 seconds for the first time, and part of it was no PLL except for turning the top layer one turn, which I don’t personally count as PLL. And, regardless of wether I mix the cube or the computer scrambles, I end up skipping the PLL quite often, I would think about 1/10 or more of the time. Is there a mathematical way to determine this?

 

[Q--]

What are the chances of skipping PLL on a 2x2? I just got a 9.65 seconds for the first time, and part of it was no PLL except for turning the top layer one turn, which I don’t personally count as PLL. And, regardless of wether I mix the cube or the computer scrambles, I end up skipping the PLL quite often, I would think about 1/10 or more of the time. Is there a mathematical way to determine this?

Yep! It occurs 1/6 of the time. Here’s the math:

The corners when oriented can be arranged in 24 ways (4 places for the first corner times 3 places for the second times 2 places for the third and 1 for the last.) Considering all 4 possible AUFs brings it down to 6 (24/4).
Out of six possible arrangements, 4 are Adjacent, 1 is diagonal, and 1 is solved. Therefore the odds of a PLL skip are 1/6.

 

[SpeedyCube]

Ooohhhh, that makes sense, thanks! Yeah, that’s about what I’m seeing. Most of the time I have to do the adjacent perm, and the other two cases (diagonal and already solved) seem to be about equal. Now I know why!

 

[RiceMan_]

What are the chances of someone getting a world record average on 3x3 with the ZZ method? I think there is a 1/3 chances if people start using the method.

 

[Nir1213]

What are the chances of someone getting a world record average on 3x3 with the ZZ method? I think there is a 1/3 chances if people start using the method.

yup but its gonna be hard

 

[RiceMan_]

yup but its gonna be hard

why?

 

[Nir1213]

why?

cant just be 1/3 that would be too easy
maybe something like 1/200