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World Record Predictions for Year 2025

Joined
Sep 15, 2017
Messages
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Location
Vienna, Austria
#81
So I did something. I took WR10 since 2010 and let Libre Office interpolate it with an a*e^(bx)+c function where c is half of the current world record (in other words: a function that converges towards half of the current world record). This method is probably better at predicting what WR10 will be in 2025, but I guess it works as an upper bound.

These are the results:

* 2x2: 0.42, 1.04 - single sounds good, average WR will probably be lower

* 3x3: 3.72, 5.29 - sounds reasonable

* 4x4: 16.56, 19.67 - WRs will probably be lower

* 5x5: 36.02, 40.54 - WRs will definitely be lower, I'm counting on Max

* 6x6: 1:12.45, 1:18.26 - WRs will most probably be lower

* 7x7: 1:40.21, 1:44.59 - sounds ambitious, but doable

* 3bld: 12.51, 14.51 - single is possible, mean sounds insane

* 4bld: 1:11.16 - sounds reasonable as a WR, but not as a WR10

* 5bld: 2:44.03 - probably possible but insane

* MBLD: 37.67 - oh, Lol, this went horribly wrong (my approach was also pretty random). WR10 is currently 26 points. And apart from Maskow, the development hasn't slowed down yet. The rest of the world still has to catch up with the top4. My actual prediction is 44 points.

* OH: 6.32, 8.45 - sounds good

* feet: 17.49, 21.40 - Yeah, I think Daniel's 16.96 will probably stay. Average sounds good

* FMC: 17, 19.00 - Single (while using 9.5 as lower bound) sounds actually kinda reasonable. If I use WR/2 (12.00) as lower bound for average, I get a prediction of 16.67 - lol. So I used 17 as the lower bound and got 19 as a prediction. Still completely insane. My actual prediction is 21.67

* Pyra: 0.93, 1.76 - sounds good

* Mega: 28.17, 32.23 - Lol, average already got beaten. Single will be lower as well. The rest of the world needs to catch up with the top2.

* Skewb: 0.67, 1.30 - sounds a bit low, there isn't that much data because it's only been 4 years

* Squan: 5.26, 7.01 - Sounds a bit high. Maybe it overestimates because CSP is still rather new?

* Clock: 3.73, 4.81 - Lol, that was precise. But I think the single will fall. Average will probably also be lower.
 
Last edited:
Joined
Aug 11, 2016
Messages
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#82
2x2 - 0.40, 0.90
3x3 - 3.51, 4.66
4x4 - 14.90, 18.80
5x5 - 34.34, 38.19
6x6 - 1:03.93, 1:15.00
7x7 - 1:45.20, 1:54.09
OH - 5.70, 8.43
FMC - 17, 21.33
Feet - 16.40, 21.54
Pyra - 1.06, 1.75
Mega - 24.98, 28.49
Skewb - 0.88, 1.74
Squan - 4.04, 5.50
3BLD - 11.90, 16.07
4BLD - 1:14.41
5BLD - 3:00.01
MBLD - 52/54 1:00:00

Some of these might be beaten way before 2025 for all I know, but meh.
 
Joined
Aug 7, 2018
Messages
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#84
You know, why not

3x3 - 3.16/4.46
2x2 - .36/1.03
4x4 - 16.94/19.11
5x5 - 30.96/35.67 (yau5)
6x6 - 1:08.64/1:12.90
7x7 - 1:47.89/1:55.43
3BLD - 14.56/16.89
FMC - 18/20.33
OH - 5.66/8.97
Feet - 15.89/18.98
Clock - 2.98/3.99
Mega - 26.78/29.28
Pyra - 1.00/1.89
Skewb - .89/1.78
Sq-1 - 4.01/6.89
4BLD - 1:09.39
5BLD - 2:35.45
MBLD - 59/60 59:58

It will be exciting to see how wrong I am, although I'm not quite sure which direction yet. Tried to make them look crazy to us now.

I had a discussion with Stanley about how far bigBLD could go (with major TPS) and this is getting pretty close to it.
I just realized you predicted the current 7x7 WR single perfectly. Pretty crazy.
 
Joined
Oct 19, 2013
Messages
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590
Location
Agra, India
WCA
2011BANS02
YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC74mG0n
#85
3x3 4.06
2x2: 0.46
4x4: 15.XX
5x5: 35.XX
6x6: 1:07.XX
7X7: 1:45.XX
oh: 6.88 (ties with feliks)
Wf: 13.XX
pyra: sub 1
Skweb: sub 1
FMC: 17
Squan: 4.73( cuz why not )
Mega: 26.XX
clock: 3.35
3bld: 15.XX
4bld: 1:30.XX
5BLD: 3:10.XX
MBLD: 49/50 60:00
MBLD already done ;)
 
Joined
Oct 19, 2017
Messages
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WCA
2015KUCA01
YouTube
channel/UCKY9uCII2wIfPmLidA_KXMA
#92
You know, why not

3x3 - 3.16/4.46
2x2 - .36/1.03
4x4 - 16.94/19.11
5x5 - 30.96/35.67 (yau5)
6x6 - 1:08.64/1:12.90
7x7 - 1:47.89/1:55.43
3BLD - 14.56/16.89
FMC - 18/20.33
OH - 5.66/8.97
Feet - 15.89/18.98
Clock - 2.98/3.99
Mega - 26.78/29.28
Pyra - 1.00/1.89
Skewb - .89/1.78
Sq-1 - 4.01/6.89
4BLD - 1:09.39
5BLD - 2:35.45
MBLD - 59/60 59:58

It will be exciting to see how wrong I am, although I'm not quite sure which direction yet. Tried to make them look crazy to us now.

I had a discussion with Stanley about how far bigBLD could go (with major TPS) and this is getting pretty close to it.
Ok holy, Some of these are getting dangerously close, I might make a new list soon
 
Joined
Nov 3, 2013
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WCA
2013MAZU02
#93
2x2 - .45, 1.08
3x3 - 3.25, 4.93
4x4 - 15.97, 17.63
5x5 - 31.76, 37.78
6x6 - 54.20, 57.96
7x7 - 1:33.73, 1:37.55
OH - 6.14, 8.36
FMC - 19 still, but now tied by like 6 people
Feet - 15.53, 19.26
Pyra - .82, 1.77
Mega - 22.74, 27.41
Skewb - .95, 1.81
Squan - 4.52, 6.12
3BLD - 12.63, 15.48
idk, I feel like people are inderestimating how low 6x6 and 7x7 can go. Hardware will most certainly improve, and so will big cube specialists like Max.
 
Joined
Sep 4, 2017
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#94
2025 isn't that far away. Official records for 2030 instead:
2x2: 0.31, 0.97
3x3: 3.59, 4.24
4x4: 16.68, 17.59
5x5: 29.45, 36.22
6x6: 59.74, 1:02.63
7x7: 1:45.88, 1:59.31
3BLD: 12.91, 16.52
3x3 FMC: 16, 19.33
3x3 OH: 5.12, 7.04
3x3 w/feet: 12.40, 14.67
Clock: no longer an official event
Megaminx: 23.24, 27.11
Pyraminx: no longer an official event
Skewb: no longer an official event
Square-1: 3.73, 5.04
4BLD: 1:02.75
5BLD: 2:59.86
Gigaminx: 3:59.86, 4:04.22
MBLD: 62/63 59:58
6BLD: 6:56.82
Megaminx BLD: 5:13.02
lol 7x7 average is already below this, and single is very close.
 
Joined
Feb 17, 2018
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Location
The Great White North
#95
3x3 - 3.03/4.41
2x2 - 0.42/1.06
4x4 - 14.98/17.00
5x5 - 27.88/31.11
6x6 - 59.80/1:03.45
7x7 - 1:37.16/1:43.22
3BLD - 11.02/14.38
FMC - 17/20.67
OH - 4.99/7.31
Feet - 13.28/15.17
Clock - 2.93/3.81
Mega - 20.18/22.95
Pyra - 0.75/1.51
Skewb - 0.80/1.58
Sq-1 - 3.72/5.03
4BLD - 1:03.10
5BLD - 2:57.87
MBLD - 59/60 in 59:50

Honestly can't wait to see how wrong I am. I tried to make these sound ridiculous now, because the future records will seem ridiculous/impossible to us. With the insanely fast growth rate of cubing, I wouldn't be surprised if we see large, specialized communities develop around more events, kind of like what we've seen with 3BLD and MBLD recently. I feel like most events won't have a single dominating person, but rather an entire group of people who are all equally skilled and capable of getting WRs.

(Also, I'd like to predict that some events would be added and some would be removed, but that's a shot in the dark at this point. Really hard to say what will be trending enough to become an event between now and then.)
I think that would be fairly accurate, but it might be way off for events like 5, 6, and 7. Mainly because of the fact that Max is getting faster and faster. I could be wrong though.
 
Joined
Sep 4, 2017
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Location
Massachusetts, USA
WCA
2016QUIN01
#96
Idk if I've already posted predictions here, but here's some either way
2x2: 0.31/0.78
3x3 2.43/3.65
4x4: 13.33/16.78
5x5: 28.78/30.04
6x6: 48.67/52.23
7x7: 1:19.34/1:26.45
BLD: 9.97/12.36
FMC: 17 by 1 person/22.33 by 3 ppl
OH: 5.43/7.78
Feet: 8.68/14.56
Clock: 3.11/3.87
Mega: 20.56/23.34
Pyra: 0.56/1.65
Skewb: 0.78/1.45
Squan: 3.89/5.02
4BLD: 45.23
5BLD: 1:45.45
MBLD: 65/68 1:00:02
 
Joined
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2017DUMM01
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DesertWolf 1205
#99
2x2 - 0.39/ 0.99
3x3 - 2.73/ 4.41
4x4 - 15.89/18.75
5x5 - 28.75/ 32.65
6x6 - 58.97/ 1:00.91
7x7 - 1:27.54/ 1:35.78
3x3 BLD - 12.56/ 16.43
4x4 BLD - 59.99/ 1:05.45
5x5 BLD - 2:30.57/ 2:40.32
3x3 OH - 6.12/ 8.69
3x3 fewest moves - 16/ 21.33
3x3 w/ feet - 12.34/ 15.43 (if this stays as an event)
Megaminx - 19.75/ 25.94
Pyraminx - 0.67/ 1.23
Square 1 - 3.47/ 5.22
Clock - 1.99/ 3.47
3x3 multi BLD - 65/65 in 59.38
 
Joined
Apr 1, 2017
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2015MANN01
2x2 - 0.39/ 0.99
3x3 - 2.73/ 4.41
4x4 - 15.89/18.75
5x5 - 28.75/ 32.65
6x6 - 58.97/ 1:00.91
7x7 - 1:27.54/ 1:35.78
3x3 BLD - 12.56/ 16.43
4x4 BLD - 59.99/ 1:05.45
5x5 BLD - 2:30.57/ 2:40.32
3x3 OH - 6.12/ 8.69
3x3 fewest moves - 16/ 21.33
3x3 w/ feet - 12.34/ 15.43 (if this stays as an event)
Megaminx - 19.75/ 25.94
Pyraminx - 0.67/ 1.23
Square 1 - 3.47/ 5.22
Clock - 1.99/ 3.47
3x3 multi BLD - 65/65 in 59.38
I'm with DesertWolf! These sound likely. However, I think 3x3 OH will be faster than this. I'd say sub-5 for single and sub-8 average.
 
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