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World Record Predictions for Year 2025

One Wheel

Member
Joined
Feb 24, 2016
Messages
2,754
Location
Wisconsin
WCA
2016BAIR04
I guess I was wrong about why Magic was cut, so that reasoning can't be copied for the other events. Mostly my prediction is intended to be a fun guess at what might happen in the future, whether that's better times or an evolution of what events are official WCA events. I have my reasons as to why I don't particularly enjoy those events, and other people have equally valid reasons that they enjoy them. I'm not particularly advocating that they be removed (although there are others, like gigaminx, or other blind events) that I think it would be cool if they were added, and they would presumably need to replace one or more existing events. I'm sorry if anybody took offense at my suggestion, it was offered in jest.
 

turtwig

Member
Joined
Apr 2, 2015
Messages
538
I'm not particularly advocating that they be removed (although there are others, like gigaminx, or other blind events) that I think it would be cool if they were added, and they would presumably need to replace one or more existing events.
I can't speak for others, but I definitely didn't take offense. I just don't really think there's a good reason for events to be removed (tbh it'd probably help my sum of ranks if they were :p).

Anyway, I don't completely understand why events have to be removed in order for new events to be added? Most comps don't have all events anyway, and the ones that do can probably afford to have a few more, as long as we don't start making everything events. I guess Skewb was added when Magic was removed, but apparently there was a lot of interest in Skewb so it might've been added anyway. Maybe I'm missing something so I'm just wondering why people are saying this.
 

One Wheel

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Joined
Feb 24, 2016
Messages
2,754
Location
Wisconsin
WCA
2016BAIR04
Anyway, I don't completely understand why events have to be removed in order for new events to be added? Most comps don't have all events anyway, and the ones that do can probably afford to have a few more, as long as we don't start making everything events. I guess Skewb was added when Magic was removed, but apparently there was a lot of interest in Skewb so it might've been added anyway. Maybe I'm missing something so I'm just wondering why people are saying this.
I think the problem is with bigger competitions being able to hold all events. Small competitions it doesn't matter so much.
 

Sion

Member
Joined
Dec 13, 2015
Messages
971
Location
New York
it's funny with magic. you could scramble it, but yet it was always the same thing over and over in comp, which made it quite redundant.

However, I do think we should get a new WCA event. I'm thinking maybe a cube that shape shifts and deforms. Maybe Clover Cube?
 

Hazel

Premium Member
Joined
Apr 1, 2017
Messages
1,585
Location
Galar Region
WCA
2015MANN01
it's funny with magic. you could scramble it, but yet it was always the same thing over and over in comp, which made it quite redundant.

However, I do think we should get a new WCA event. I'm thinking maybe a cube that shape shifts and deforms. Maybe Clover Cube?
I vote for 3x3x5, but I think a cubic one would be better for speed and design of the cube.
 
Joined
Mar 16, 2016
Messages
158
Location
Earth
I might come back sometime down the line with predictions with mathematical basis, but here's my guesses for now:

2x2: 0.39 / 0.88 -- The single is already down to the point where the WR goes to whoever can execute a 4-mover the fastest. I don't think it's humanly possible to go much faster than the current UWR.
3x3: 2.68 / 3.97
4x4: 11.49 / 14.73
5x5: 24.77 / 28.01
6x6: 53.23 / 55.91
7x7: 1:19.37 / 1:23.30
3BLD: 11.11 / 14.24
4BLD: 58.82 / 59.89
5BLD: 2:05.19 / 2:09.42 -- Means will become an official event. We will also have developed a better method for big cubes.
3x3 WF: 8.58 / 11.40 -- This event certainly has a long way to go.
3x3 OH: 3.78 / 5.02
Megaminx: 16.23 / 19.72 -- This one's been pushed a lot recently, and has gone down ten seconds in the past three years. Same with big cubes, I guess.
Pyraminx: 0.56 / 0.88
Squan: 3.48 / 4.62
Skewb: 0.62 / 0.89
Clock: 1.78 / 2.43
FMC: 14 / 17.33 -- This doesn't really have much room to improve, because math. WRs will come down to luck.
MBLD: 71 points (73/75 in 57:52)
 
Last edited:
Joined
Mar 16, 2016
Messages
158
Location
Earth
That pyra average seems way too low
God's number is 11, then after that there is tips to deal with
also you said mbld in 57:62 xd
Ugh. I guess that's what happens when you type a million random decimals and then have to type a random amount of time :p

As for the pyra average, I'm sure it's possible. Faster singles have been done, and it's not inconceivable that someone gets really lucky scrambles when it comes to tips.
 

oliviervlcube

Member
Joined
Aug 21, 2016
Messages
266
WCA
2016LUIJ01
I might come back sometime down the line with predictions with mathematical basis, but here's my guesses for now:

2x2: 0.39 / 0.88 -- The single is already down to the point where the WR goes to whoever can execute a 4-mover the fastest. I don't think it's humanly possible to go much faster than the current UWR.
3x3: 2.68 / 3.97
4x4: 11.49 / 14.73
5x5: 24.77 / 28.01
6x6: 53.23 / 55.91
7x7: 1:19.37 / 1:23.30
3BLD: 11.11 / 14.24
4BLD: 58.82 / 59.89
5BLD: 2:05.19 / 2:09.42 -- Means will become an official event. We will also have developed a better method for big cubes.
3x3 WF: 8.58 / 11.40 -- This event certainly has a long way to go.
3x3 OH: 3.78 / 5.02
Megaminx: 16.23 / 19.72 -- This one's been pushed a lot recently, and has gone down ten seconds in the past three years. Same with big cubes, I guess.
Pyraminx: 0.56 / 0.88
Squan: 3.48 / 4.62
Skewb: 0.62 / 0.89
Clock: 1.78 / 2.43
FMC: 14 / 17.33 -- This doesn't really have much room to improve, because math. WRs will come down to luck.
MBLD: 71 points (73/75 in 57:52)
These are the most ridiculouspredictions I´ve ever seen.
 
Joined
Mar 13, 2018
Messages
18
In my opinion, there are two things that are going to reduce times in the next 7 years. 1. New hardware 2. New methods.
I think that there is probably going to be a mixture of both. Here are my guesses,
2x2: 0.39, 0.91
3x3: 2.89, 3.72
4x4: 13, 15.6
5x5: 29.5, 31.24
6x6: 49, 55
7x7: 1:14, 1:34
Pyra: 0.42, 1.2
Skewb: 0.52, 1.4
Sqaure-1: 2.84, 4.56
Megaminx 21.4, 23.56
Clock: No clue
OH: 4.56, 6.89
Blind: 9.85
MultiBlind: 65 points
4x4 Blind: no clue
5x5 blind: no clue
3x3 WF: 9.87
3x3 FMC: 12
7 years is a long time
 
Joined
Mar 13, 2018
Messages
18
I am giving a prediction on only 3x3
Single: 3.306
Avg: 3.724


But why this specific. Well, that is because with some unreliable calculations, taking the average time drop of the single and average wr since 2012, we get-
Single -.214
avg -.346

I took this information into excel and subtracted that from the current wr. Then I took that time and subtracted again. Assuming a wr is broken at least yearly. By 2025 we will have 3.306single and 3.724avg.

So according to this unreliable data that probably is wrong, here is the timeline
(year - single wr - average wr)
19 4.59 5.8
20 4.376 5.454
21 4.162 5.108
22 3.948 4.762
23 3.734 4.416
24 3.52 4.07
25 3.306 3.724
26 3.092 3.378
27 2.878 3.032
28 2.664 2.686
29 2.45 2.34
30 2.236 1.994
31 2.022 1.648
32 1.808 1.302
33 1.594 0.956
34 1.38 0.61
35 1.166 0.264
36 0.952 -0.082
37 0.738 -0.428
38 0.524 -0.774
39 0.31 -1.12
40 0.096 -1.466
41 -0.118 -1.812
42 -0.332 -2.158
43 -0.546 -2.504
44 -0.76 -2.85
45 -0.974 -3.196
46 -1.188 -3.542
47 -1.402 -3.888
48 -1.616 -4.234
49 -1.83 -4.58
50 -2.044 -4.926
Well, this is a linear regression, if it were exponential I feel like it would be more accurate. Still really nice work though that must of took a while. I'm just to lazy to try and figure out the exponential version.
 

oliviervlcube

Member
Joined
Aug 21, 2016
Messages
266
WCA
2016LUIJ01
lol pyra requires a minimum amount of moves which is 6, this results in 14.3 TPS which isn't even possible to achieve with pick up the cube. By skewb will it be exactly the same
 
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