World Record Predictions for the year 2030

Imma just see myself out
Screenshot 2019-10-29 at 6.10.40 PM.png
 
3x3: 2.04/3.63
2x2: 0.27/0.84
4x4: 12.80/14.59
5x5: 23.31/25.14
6x6: 49.50/51.09
7x7: 1:16.87/1:20.99
Blind: 9.80/11.13
FMC: 14/17.33
OH: 4.22/5.09
Feet: 10.18/14.77
Clock: 1.98/2.74
Mega: 18.78/21.95
Pyra: 0.69/1.13
Skewb: 0.76/1.19
Sq1: 2.68/3.65
4BLD: 41.22/45.01
5BLD: 1:32.10/1:39.32
MBLD: 86/90 in 60:00

I do think the WCA will undergo some vast changes event-wise but that's honestly beyond anything I could guess, so I'm just including the current events and nothing more or less. I'm honestly so excited to see these times reached (and surpassed??); a 23 second 5x5 solve just sounds amazing to watch, hopefully I can see that someday. :)

But yeah, as of now most of these seem impossible. :p
 
I'm not porkynator, and I suspect he would know better, but if I didn't mess up my calculations (using the numbers at http://www.cube20.org/), it looks like a 13-move solution happens about one in every 80,000 scrambles or so. (I know this is a very rough estimate; it could be fairly far off.) Considering there had been only about 2500 FMC scrambles in the WCA database as of the end of last year or so, it seems like it would take some pretty good luck to get a 13-move possible solution by 2030, but it certainly isn't impossible. Of course, then there's the question of whether or not someone could actually find it when it came along.
 
Singles:

3x3: 2.25
2x2: 0.12
4x4: 12.09
5x5: 23.19
6x6: 44.95
7x7: 1:09.12
Blind: 9.72
FMC: 14
OH: 4.59
If Feet Exists: 11.01
If Clock Exists: 1.34
Mega: 19.20
Pyra: 0.41
Skewb: 0.41
Sq1: 3.44
MBLD: 80/85

New Events: Redi Cube, Kilominx, Master Pyraminx
Removed Events: Clock, Feet

I guess these seem pretty extreme, but I don't want to make the same mistake all of the 2020 guessers did (I probably will anyway!)
 
PingPongCuber said:
2x2: 0.12
Click to expand...

According to WCA regulation 4b3c, "2x2x2 Cube: The (random) state must require at least 4 moves to solve."

Even if someone did get a 4 move solution scramble, and was able to realize the fastest solution, it would be humanly impossible to do all 4 moves in 0.12 seconds. That would be about 40 TPS, so unless robots are allowed to compete, that isn't gonna happen.

Edit: Also, Skewb and Pyraminx must be 7 and 6 moves to solve, respectively. With their weird turning, I don't think 12-15 TPS is gonna happen on those for 0.41 solves.

Edit 2: I don't mean disrespect to you, just pointing out that some times are a little unrealistic. :)
 
Mike Hughey said:
I'm not porkynator, and I suspect he would know better, but if I didn't mess up my calculations (using the numbers at http://www.cube20.org/), it looks like a 13-move solution happens about one in every 80,000 scrambles or so. (I know this is a very rough estimate; it could be fairly far off.) Considering there had been only about 2500 FMC scrambles in the WCA database as of the end of last year or so, it seems like it would take some pretty good luck to get a 13-move possible solution by 2030, but it certainly isn't impossible. Of course, then there's the question of whether or not someone could actually find it when it came along.
Click to expand...

Based on those numbers, I'd say your probably right. Also, I don't mean disrespect to @Koen van Aller , I'm just pointing out that the number may be a little low
 
Predictions for January 1st, 2030:
3x3: 3.44
2x2: .45
4x4: 15.77
5x5: 29.72
6x6: 1:09.32
7x7: 1:35.43
Blind: 11.34
FMC: 15
OH: 5.89
Feet: Not an event
Clock: 2.32
Mega: 26.11
Pyra: .73
Skewb: .89
Sq1: 3.76
4BLD: 46.33
5BLD: 1:59.44
MBLD: 72

New Events: None
Removed Events: feet
Event Format Changes: none
Competitors in the WCA: 300,000
Year in WCA ID of WC2029 winner: 2021
3x3 prize at WC2029 (2019 value): 20,000
 
Mike Hughey said:
I'm not porkynator, and I suspect he would know better, but if I didn't mess up my calculations (using the numbers at http://www.cube20.org/), it looks like a 13-move solution happens about one in every 80,000 scrambles or so. (I know this is a very rough estimate; it could be fairly far off.) Considering there had been only about 2500 FMC scrambles in the WCA database as of the end of last year or so, it seems like it would take some pretty good luck to get a 13-move possible solution by 2030, but it certainly isn't impossible. Of course, then there's the question of whether or not someone could actually find it when it came along.
Click to expand...

Your estimate seems correct, it's very hard that we'll get a 13HTM scramble in the next 10 years. We'll definitely get some 15 scrambles and maybe (probably?) a 14.

Then the question is: how hard is it to find the optimal solution?
Short answer: very hard.
Slightly longer answer: very hard, but we are improving.
Long answer:
I don't remember how many of the 14 official sub-20 solves are optimal; I am sure Mark's 17, my 18 and Robert's 19 are not. It is safe to assume that none of the 20 is optimal, which leaves us with at most 11 optimal solutions found so far; but let me use 10 as an upper bound to make the numbers nicer. With around 2500 scrambles so far, this gives us around 0.4% "optimality rate". This is not the chance of finding the optimal solution per person, but overall: it means that, so far, on any given scramble there has been 0.4% chance that someone finds an optimal solution (past tense + probability language is hard, let me be sloppy with grammar).
But we are getting better. The WR mean of a little more than 6 months ago (24.00) is not even in top10 now. I think more people are getting into FMC, and more and more are trying to reach very high levels. I don't know if this means that our miserable 0.4% will go up, but I really hope so :) However, even if we become something like 25 times better at finding optimal solutions, this only gives us as little as 10% chance :(
BUT maybe not all hope is lost. It seems that scrambles that are easy for a computer (i.e. short optimal solution) are also easy for humans. This could mean that our chances of finding an optimal 14 or 13 are much higher than those of finding the optimal solution for the average scramble. If a 13HTM scramble does appear I wouldn't be surprised to see someone actually finding a 13HTM solution for it.

I will stand by my prediction, but a 15 single in the next 10 years is not unreasonable at all. I would be surprised by a 14, but it's still possible. I think a 13 is almost impossible, just because the probability of actually getting such a good scramble are too low.
 
DarkSavage said:
According to WCA regulation 4b3c, "2x2x2 Cube: The (random) state must require at least 4 moves to solve."

Even if someone did get a 4 move solution scramble, and was able to realize the fastest solution, it would be humanly impossible to do all 4 moves in 0.12 seconds. That would be about 40 TPS, so unless robots are allowed to compete, that isn't gonna happen.

Edit: Also, Skewb and Pyraminx must be 7 and 6 moves to solve, respectively. With their weird turning, I don't think 12-15 TPS is gonna happen on those for 0.41 solves.

Edit 2: I don't mean disrespect to you, just pointing out that some times are a little unrealistic. :)
Click to expand...

Yeah, I guess that including the timer start and stop that is pretty unrealistic, thanks for pointing that out though!
 
Alright lets try this

3x3: 2.54/4.67
2x2: 0.31/0.79
4x4: 14.43/17.34
5x5: 28.89/32.45
6x6: 58.98/1:05.46
7x7: 1:25.25/1:30.53
Blind: 9.99/12.34
FMC: 15/18.00
OH: 4.99/7.00
Feet: 16.96/20.58 but if it remains an event 12.78/15.66
Clock: 2.00/3.15 hopefully by me (;
Mega: 23.55/27.66
Pyra: 0.69/1.15 .69 pllzzzzzz
Skewb: 0.74/1.26
Sq1: 2.88/4.33
4BLD: 45.33/50.22
5BLD: 2:05.42/2:15.23
MBLD: 70/70 in 60:00


some other event is probably going to get added, and maybe even tiers lol.
 
3x3: 2.09/4.25
2x2: 0.19/0.77
FMC: 15/18.00
OH: 4.50/6.8
MBLD: >=75 points

At least one new WCA event, hopefully more.
 
Competition Cuber said:
2030 is a little far away.... how about we focus on 2025 first?
www.speedsolving.com

World Record Predictions for Year 2025

What do you think that the WCA world records will be in the year 2025? This is basically the same thing as the 2020 thread, just 5 years ahead.
www.speedsolving.com www.speedsolving.com
Click to expand...
I was trying to replicate the 2020 thread as much as possible, I'd been tracking the date to post it on for like 1.5 years. Missed it by a day :(.
 
3x3: 2.60/4.20
2x2: 0.33/0.95
4x4: 13.6/17.00
5x5: 27.00/33.00
6x6:1:00.00/1:05.00
7x7: 1:15.00/1:25:00
Blind: 9.5/13.7
FMC: 16/19.67
OH: 5.12/7.44
Feet: removed 2020
Clock: removed in 2022, there will be a 2.8 single and 3.5 average when removed
Mega: 20.00/25.00
Pyra: 0.6/1.3
Skewb: 0.6/1.4
Sq1: 2.5/4.5
4BLD: 40/48
5BLD: 1:30/1:36
MBLD: 75 points, 80-85 cubes being attempted


misc predictions
New Events: none
Removed Events: feet, clock
Event Format Changes: 3-5bld will all have the new formats, ao5 or median of 3.
wca/reg changes: organizers will be able to profit from comps, cubing will explode in numbers when it is allowed. Times will drop massively the years after prize money becomes more and more common. All solves will be recorded and checked by a team. Teams within the wca will be able to make money. regs will be extremely detailed and Delegates/wrc will rarely have to make calls about specific situations.

also no one will have a mass produced clock. cubicle have made an ok one, speedcubeshop will follow suit in a few months but they stop producing them once Clock is removed.
 
Underwatercuber said:
3x3: 2.60/4.20
2x2: 0.33/0.95
4x4: 13.6/17.00
5x5: 27.00/33.00
6x6:1:00.00/1:05.00
7x7: 1:15.00/1:25:00
Blind: 9.5/13.7
FMC: 16/19.67
OH: 5.12/7.44
Feet: removed 2020
Clock: removed in 2022, there will be a 2.8 single and 3.5 average when removed
Mega: 20.00/25.00
Pyra: 0.6/1.3
Skewb: 0.6/1.4
Sq1: 2.5/4.5
4BLD: 40/48
5BLD: 1:30/1:36
MBLD: 75 points, 80-85 cubes being attempted


misc predictions
New Events: none
Removed Events: feet, clock
Event Format Changes: 3-5bld will all have the new formats, ao5 or median of 3.
wca/reg changes: organizers will be able to profit from comps, cubing will explode in numbers when it is allowed. Times will drop massively the years after prize money becomes more and more common. All solves will be recorded and checked by a team. Teams within the wca will be able to make money. regs will be extremely detailed and Delegates/wrc will rarely have to make calls about specific situations.

also no one will have a mass produced clock. cubicle have made an ok one, speedcubeshop will follow suit in a few months but they stop producing them once Clock is removed.
Click to expand...
Almost everything in the latter part of your predictions represent things I do not want to happen.
 
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