• Welcome to the Speedsolving.com, home of the web's largest puzzle community!
    You are currently viewing our forum as a guest which gives you limited access to join discussions and access our other features.

    Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join our community of 35,000+ people from around the world today!

    If you are already a member, simply login to hide this message and begin participating in the community!

World Record Predictions for the year 2030

DGCubes

Member
Joined
Feb 14, 2014
Messages
1,705
Location
Over there
WCA
2013GOOD01
YouTube
DGCubes
3x3: 2.04/3.63
2x2: 0.27/0.84
4x4: 12.80/14.59
5x5: 23.31/25.14
6x6: 49.50/51.09
7x7: 1:16.87/1:20.99
Blind: 9.80/11.13
FMC: 14/17.33
OH: 4.22/5.09
Feet: 10.18/14.77
Clock: 1.98/2.74
Mega: 18.78/21.95
Pyra: 0.69/1.13
Skewb: 0.76/1.19
Sq1: 2.68/3.65
4BLD: 41.22/45.01
5BLD: 1:32.10/1:39.32
MBLD: 86/90 in 60:00

I do think the WCA will undergo some vast changes event-wise but that's honestly beyond anything I could guess, so I'm just including the current events and nothing more or less. I'm honestly so excited to see these times reached (and surpassed??); a 23 second 5x5 solve just sounds amazing to watch, hopefully I can see that someday. :)

But yeah, as of now most of these seem impossible. :p
 

Mike Hughey

Super Moderator
Staff member
Joined
Jun 7, 2007
Messages
9,931
Location
Indianapolis
WCA
2007HUGH01
YouTube
MikeHughey1
I'm not porkynator, and I suspect he would know better, but if I didn't mess up my calculations (using the numbers at http://www.cube20.org/), it looks like a 13-move solution happens about one in every 80,000 scrambles or so. (I know this is a very rough estimate; it could be fairly far off.) Considering there had been only about 2500 FMC scrambles in the WCA database as of the end of last year or so, it seems like it would take some pretty good luck to get a 13-move possible solution by 2030, but it certainly isn't impossible. Of course, then there's the question of whether or not someone could actually find it when it came along.
 

PingPongCuber

Member
Joined
Oct 20, 2018
Messages
150
Location
Colorado
WCA
2018AMSB02
Singles:

3x3: 2.25
2x2: 0.12
4x4: 12.09
5x5: 23.19
6x6: 44.95
7x7: 1:09.12
Blind: 9.72
FMC: 14
OH: 4.59
If Feet Exists: 11.01
If Clock Exists: 1.34
Mega: 19.20
Pyra: 0.41
Skewb: 0.41
Sq1: 3.44
MBLD: 80/85

New Events: Redi Cube, Kilominx, Master Pyraminx
Removed Events: Clock, Feet

I guess these seem pretty extreme, but I don't want to make the same mistake all of the 2020 guessers did (I probably will anyway!)
 

DarkSavage

Member
Joined
Oct 27, 2019
Messages
77
2x2: 0.12
According to WCA regulation 4b3c, "2x2x2 Cube: The (random) state must require at least 4 moves to solve."

Even if someone did get a 4 move solution scramble, and was able to realize the fastest solution, it would be humanly impossible to do all 4 moves in 0.12 seconds. That would be about 40 TPS, so unless robots are allowed to compete, that isn't gonna happen.

Edit: Also, Skewb and Pyraminx must be 7 and 6 moves to solve, respectively. With their weird turning, I don't think 12-15 TPS is gonna happen on those for 0.41 solves.

Edit 2: I don't mean disrespect to you, just pointing out that some times are a little unrealistic. :)
 

DarkSavage

Member
Joined
Oct 27, 2019
Messages
77
I'm not porkynator, and I suspect he would know better, but if I didn't mess up my calculations (using the numbers at http://www.cube20.org/), it looks like a 13-move solution happens about one in every 80,000 scrambles or so. (I know this is a very rough estimate; it could be fairly far off.) Considering there had been only about 2500 FMC scrambles in the WCA database as of the end of last year or so, it seems like it would take some pretty good luck to get a 13-move possible solution by 2030, but it certainly isn't impossible. Of course, then there's the question of whether or not someone could actually find it when it came along.
Based on those numbers, I'd say your probably right. Also, I don't mean disrespect to @Koen van Aller , I'm just pointing out that the number may be a little low
 

cubesrawesome

Member
Joined
Nov 25, 2018
Messages
36
Predictions for January 1st, 2030:
3x3: 3.44
2x2: .45
4x4: 15.77
5x5: 29.72
6x6: 1:09.32
7x7: 1:35.43
Blind: 11.34
FMC: 15
OH: 5.89
Feet: Not an event
Clock: 2.32
Mega: 26.11
Pyra: .73
Skewb: .89
Sq1: 3.76
4BLD: 46.33
5BLD: 1:59.44
MBLD: 72

New Events: None
Removed Events: feet
Event Format Changes: none
Competitors in the WCA: 300,000
Year in WCA ID of WC2029 winner: 2021
3x3 prize at WC2029 (2019 value): 20,000
 

porkynator

Member
Joined
Oct 27, 2010
Messages
1,265
Location
Belluno, Italy
WCA
2011TRON02
YouTube
PorkyDays
I'm not porkynator, and I suspect he would know better, but if I didn't mess up my calculations (using the numbers at http://www.cube20.org/), it looks like a 13-move solution happens about one in every 80,000 scrambles or so. (I know this is a very rough estimate; it could be fairly far off.) Considering there had been only about 2500 FMC scrambles in the WCA database as of the end of last year or so, it seems like it would take some pretty good luck to get a 13-move possible solution by 2030, but it certainly isn't impossible. Of course, then there's the question of whether or not someone could actually find it when it came along.
Your estimate seems correct, it's very hard that we'll get a 13HTM scramble in the next 10 years. We'll definitely get some 15 scrambles and maybe (probably?) a 14.

Then the question is: how hard is it to find the optimal solution?
Short answer: very hard.
Slightly longer answer: very hard, but we are improving.
Long answer:
I don't remember how many of the 14 official sub-20 solves are optimal; I am sure Mark's 17, my 18 and Robert's 19 are not. It is safe to assume that none of the 20 is optimal, which leaves us with at most 11 optimal solutions found so far; but let me use 10 as an upper bound to make the numbers nicer. With around 2500 scrambles so far, this gives us around 0.4% "optimality rate". This is not the chance of finding the optimal solution per person, but overall: it means that, so far, on any given scramble there has been 0.4% chance that someone finds an optimal solution (past tense + probability language is hard, let me be sloppy with grammar).
But we are getting better. The WR mean of a little more than 6 months ago (24.00) is not even in top10 now. I think more people are getting into FMC, and more and more are trying to reach very high levels. I don't know if this means that our miserable 0.4% will go up, but I really hope so :) However, even if we become something like 25 times better at finding optimal solutions, this only gives us as little as 10% chance :(
BUT maybe not all hope is lost. It seems that scrambles that are easy for a computer (i.e. short optimal solution) are also easy for humans. This could mean that our chances of finding an optimal 14 or 13 are much higher than those of finding the optimal solution for the average scramble. If a 13HTM scramble does appear I wouldn't be surprised to see someone actually finding a 13HTM solution for it.

I will stand by my prediction, but a 15 single in the next 10 years is not unreasonable at all. I would be surprised by a 14, but it's still possible. I think a 13 is almost impossible, just because the probability of actually getting such a good scramble are too low.
 

PingPongCuber

Member
Joined
Oct 20, 2018
Messages
150
Location
Colorado
WCA
2018AMSB02
According to WCA regulation 4b3c, "2x2x2 Cube: The (random) state must require at least 4 moves to solve."

Even if someone did get a 4 move solution scramble, and was able to realize the fastest solution, it would be humanly impossible to do all 4 moves in 0.12 seconds. That would be about 40 TPS, so unless robots are allowed to compete, that isn't gonna happen.

Edit: Also, Skewb and Pyraminx must be 7 and 6 moves to solve, respectively. With their weird turning, I don't think 12-15 TPS is gonna happen on those for 0.41 solves.

Edit 2: I don't mean disrespect to you, just pointing out that some times are a little unrealistic. :)
Yeah, I guess that including the timer start and stop that is pretty unrealistic, thanks for pointing that out though!
 
Joined
Sep 15, 2017
Messages
423
WCA
2017BRYA06
YouTube
channel/UCj_pE_D
Alright lets try this

3x3: 2.54/4.67
2x2: 0.31/0.79
4x4: 14.43/17.34
5x5: 28.89/32.45
6x6: 58.98/1:05.46
7x7: 1:25.25/1:30.53
Blind: 9.99/12.34
FMC: 15/18.00
OH: 4.99/7.00
Feet: 16.96/20.58 but if it remains an event 12.78/15.66
Clock: 2.00/3.15 hopefully by me (;
Mega: 23.55/27.66
Pyra: 0.69/1.15 .69 pllzzzzzz
Skewb: 0.74/1.26
Sq1: 2.88/4.33
4BLD: 45.33/50.22
5BLD: 2:05.42/2:15.23
MBLD: 70/70 in 60:00


some other event is probably going to get added, and maybe even tiers lol.
 

DarkSavage

Member
Joined
Oct 27, 2019
Messages
77

Loser

Member
Joined
Sep 4, 2017
Messages
299
Location
Massachusetts, USA
WCA
2016QUIN01
2030 is a little far away.... how about we focus on 2025 first?
I was trying to replicate the 2020 thread as much as possible, I'd been tracking the date to post it on for like 1.5 years. Missed it by a day :(.
 
Joined
Feb 8, 2017
Messages
1,050
Location
Utah
WCA
2016BAIR01
3x3: 2.60/4.20
2x2: 0.33/0.95
4x4: 13.6/17.00
5x5: 27.00/33.00
6x6:1:00.00/1:05.00
7x7: 1:15.00/1:25:00
Blind: 9.5/13.7
FMC: 16/19.67
OH: 5.12/7.44
Feet: removed 2020
Clock: removed in 2022, there will be a 2.8 single and 3.5 average when removed
Mega: 20.00/25.00
Pyra: 0.6/1.3
Skewb: 0.6/1.4
Sq1: 2.5/4.5
4BLD: 40/48
5BLD: 1:30/1:36
MBLD: 75 points, 80-85 cubes being attempted


misc predictions
New Events: none
Removed Events: feet, clock
Event Format Changes: 3-5bld will all have the new formats, ao5 or median of 3.
wca/reg changes: organizers will be able to profit from comps, cubing will explode in numbers when it is allowed. Times will drop massively the years after prize money becomes more and more common. All solves will be recorded and checked by a team. Teams within the wca will be able to make money. regs will be extremely detailed and Delegates/wrc will rarely have to make calls about specific situations.

also no one will have a mass produced clock. cubicle have made an ok one, speedcubeshop will follow suit in a few months but they stop producing them once Clock is removed.
 
Joined
Feb 23, 2019
Messages
391
Location
The FitnessGram Pacer Test is a multi stage...
3x3: 2.60/4.20
2x2: 0.33/0.95
4x4: 13.6/17.00
5x5: 27.00/33.00
6x6:1:00.00/1:05.00
7x7: 1:15.00/1:25:00
Blind: 9.5/13.7
FMC: 16/19.67
OH: 5.12/7.44
Feet: removed 2020
Clock: removed in 2022, there will be a 2.8 single and 3.5 average when removed
Mega: 20.00/25.00
Pyra: 0.6/1.3
Skewb: 0.6/1.4
Sq1: 2.5/4.5
4BLD: 40/48
5BLD: 1:30/1:36
MBLD: 75 points, 80-85 cubes being attempted


misc predictions
New Events: none
Removed Events: feet, clock
Event Format Changes: 3-5bld will all have the new formats, ao5 or median of 3.
wca/reg changes: organizers will be able to profit from comps, cubing will explode in numbers when it is allowed. Times will drop massively the years after prize money becomes more and more common. All solves will be recorded and checked by a team. Teams within the wca will be able to make money. regs will be extremely detailed and Delegates/wrc will rarely have to make calls about specific situations.

also no one will have a mass produced clock. cubicle have made an ok one, speedcubeshop will follow suit in a few months but they stop producing them once Clock is removed.
Almost everything in the latter part of your predictions represent things I do not want to happen.
 
Top