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Who do you think will get the first official sub 5 3x3 average?

Who do you think will get the 1st Sub 5?

  • Tymon

    Votes: 82 59.4%
  • Max

    Votes: 35 25.4%
  • Ruihang

    Votes: 2 1.4%
  • Felix

    Votes: 8 5.8%
  • Fahmi?

    Votes: 6 4.3%
  • Others

    Votes: 3 2.2%
  • matty

    Votes: 2 1.4%

  • Total voters
    138

Imsoosm

Member
Joined
Mar 30, 2022
Messages
1,262
Location
a minefield
Not because of his ability but because China has been strict on lockdowns still
It's been a bit better here, but the government still closes down a place as soon as they discover an omicron case there. I dunno which city Ruihang lives in, but regardless, China ain't opening comps.
 
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kubesolver

Premium Member
Joined
Nov 15, 2019
Messages
425
It's really just around the corner.

Tymon had a sub-5 ao5 fail this weekend (he needed 4.87 or lower on the 5th solve).

Attempts​

4.69, 5.44, 5.08, 5.04, 5.93

Average​

5.19
 

Imsoosm

Member
Joined
Mar 30, 2022
Messages
1,262
Location
a minefield
It's really just around the corner.

Tymon had a sub-5 ao5 fail this weekend (he needed 4.87 or lower on the 5th solve).

Attempts​

4.69, 5.44, 5.08, 5.04, 5.93

Average​

5.19
Dangit did he fail that solve or was the scramble just bad?
 

Blau

Member
Joined
Jun 3, 2022
Messages
15
Location
Earth
Max will have 19 rounds of 3x3 in july and Tymon will have 11, so I guess we will see the long-awaited sub 5 average very soon

(max also has 15 rounds of 4x4, 13 rounds of 5x5, 9 rounds of 6x6 and 7x7, and 12 rounds of OH)
 

leolrg

Member
Joined
Jul 12, 2021
Messages
13
Location
China
Let's give a most comprehensive analysis.

I took all of Max and Tymon's solves from 2021 and 2022. For Max there were 90 (14 rounds) and for Tymon there were 175 (35 rounds). Max's mean and standard deviation were 5.88 and 0.68, approximately, and for Tymon we have 6.06 and 0.93. Indeed, Tymon average slightly slower but has much higher variance. I then generated random times assuming a normal distribution. In a sample of 10,000,000 averages, Tymon "got" 84,778 sub-5 averages while Max got 33,343. In other words, we could say Tymon has a 0.8% chance of getting a sub-5 average in any given round and Max has a 0.3% chance. This seems to support my theory that Tymon has better odds due to his highly varied performance. I find it surprising that Tymon managed to get an average so close to sub-5 in 35 rounds, given the simulation gives it <1% chance. Although, I'd say the "real" probably is probably at most 1-2% for either person given neither actually has a sub-5 average after 49 rounds.
It is flawed because although Max do have a better global average during 2021 to 2022, Max competed much later than Tymon. What I mean is that max started competing in late 2021, while Tymon started in mid 2021. Thus, improvements need to be taken into account. If we only look at the global average of Tymon and Max at the same time(i.e after max has starting to compete), Tymon is by no means worse than Max. Plus, Tymon have more sub 5.5 average than Max, with his 4.73 +2 failed ao5.

Tymon do have better chance of getting sub 5 average, partly due to his variance as @turwig mentioned.

Matty and Leo have much worse performance during comp comparing to Tymon and Max.

Fahmi may not even have chance to compete, and his global average at home is low 6 according to himself in Reddit.

Ruihang definitely have chance if there is competition in China. His recent performance in unofficial online competition in China is insane, and according to himself, he now has global average of mid 5. However, there seems to be no chance of having comp anywhere recent in china due to covid.
 

leolrg

Member
Joined
Jul 12, 2021
Messages
13
Location
China
is he able to travel internationally? he may have to quarantine when he gets back tho, idk the current regulations in china
He is "able" to travel internationally, but that will be too time-consuming and inconvenient. He has to do strict quarantine and also there are many other regulations. So he probably will not choose to travel internationally.
 

Imsoosm

Member
Joined
Mar 30, 2022
Messages
1,262
Location
a minefield
He is "able" to travel internationally, but that will be too time-consuming and inconvenient. He has to do strict quarantine and also there are many other regulations. So he probably will not choose to travel internationally.
Do any of you know which city Ruihang lives in?? I'm in Shanghai but I don't think he's near the area around here cuz most of his comps are in like mid-south and mid-west places.
 

qwr

Member
Joined
Jul 24, 2019
Messages
3,371
YouTube
Visit Channel
Do any of you know which city Ruihang lives in?? I'm in Shanghai but I don't think he's near the area around here cuz most of his comps are in like mid-south and mid-west places.

This video introduces Ruihang and Yezhen. I posted a rough translation by ear in the comments. I think it says at 0:20 he's from Zhejiang? Confirmed here:

You should post a full translation if possible because I missed some stuff.
 

gsingh

Member
Joined
Dec 28, 2021
Messages
2,105
Location
that one place
WCA
2019SING33
SS Competition Results
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Max will have 19 rounds of 3x3 in july and Tymon will have 11, so I guess we will see the long-awaited sub 5 average very soon

(max also has 15 rounds of 4x4, 13 rounds of 5x5, 9 rounds of 6x6 and 7x7, and 12 rounds of OH)
wow! i bet a lot of records will be broken! also it will be nice to see tymon and max finally go head to head
 

Imsoosm

Member
Joined
Mar 30, 2022
Messages
1,262
Location
a minefield
Tymon's performance in Szczecin Open is really good. First round he got a 6.08 ao5 (best 4.96), not that great, but in second round he got 5.30 ao5 with TWO low 4s (counting 4.45 and a 4.22). Finals he got even better, a 5.19 ao5 with 4.69 single.
 
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