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Who do you think will get the first official sub 5 3x3 average?

Who do you think will get the 1st Sub 5?

  • Tymon

    Votes: 62 55.4%
  • Max

    Votes: 30 26.8%
  • Ruihang

    Votes: 2 1.8%
  • Felix

    Votes: 8 7.1%
  • Fahmi?

    Votes: 6 5.4%
  • Others

    Votes: 2 1.8%
  • matty

    Votes: 2 1.8%

  • Total voters
    112

Tabe

Member
Joined
Feb 6, 2017
Messages
1,645
Location
Spokane, WA (USA)
WCA
2017TABA02
YouTube
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Damn every time someone thinks a famous dude is going to get WR they fail and +2 somthing. Or like Jayden and Zayn, they dropped the cube.
Like Max Siauw with SQ-1 average. He +2'ed out of it a couple times and lost the WR because of misscrambles another time. Pretty sure there were other issues, too. Then he goes ahead and breaks it twice in the same comp, very nearly getting the first sub-5 average when the previous WR was 6.19.
 

gsingh

Member
Joined
Dec 28, 2021
Messages
399
Location
my house cubing
WCA
2019SING33
Ok, so the 4 biggest competitors are Max, Matty, Ruihang, and Tymon.
According to SpeedcubeDB,

Average TPS:
Max-10.8
Ruihang-10.8
Matty-10.3
Tymon-9.5

Average Movecount:
Tymon-53.5
Matty-55.4
Max-58.7
Ruihang-59.1

Global Average:
Tymon's Average-5.65
Max's Average-5.44
Matty's Average-5.38 😲
Ruihang's Average-5.48


So, Matty should be most likely, because he has a lower global than Max, Tymon, and Ruihang.
But we haven't factored in Comp Nerves yet.
Comp averages are obviously a lot different than averages at home.

Comp Average from the last 3 Months :
Tymon-5.84
Max-5.70
Matty-6.00
Ruihang-N/A


So, according to Comp Averages, Max should be the first to get a sub-5 average. But that's not fair either, because Ruihang hasn't competed for a year.


There isn't really an easy way to calculate this. Matty has one Sub-5 fail. His 5.25 Official average would have been 4.93 without the +2.
Tymon also has a Sub-5 fail. His 5.15 average would have been 4.74 without the +2.
Max and Ruihang both have no Sub-5 fails.

If you have watches Matty's 5.25 video, you will see how many lock-ups he has. Without them, the average might have been WR and Sub-5 even with the +2. If Matty can fix his turning, I think he will have Sub-5 average in the bag. So overall, I say Matty.
 

kubesolver

Premium Member
Joined
Nov 15, 2019
Messages
378
It's really just around the corner.

Tymon had a sub-5 ao5 fail this weekend (he needed 4.87 or lower on the 5th solve).

Attempts​

4.69, 5.44, 5.08, 5.04, 5.93

Average​

5.19
 

Blau

Member
Joined
Jun 3, 2022
Messages
3
Location
Earth
Max will have 19 rounds of 3x3 in july and Tymon will have 11, so I guess we will see the long-awaited sub 5 average very soon

(max also has 15 rounds of 4x4, 13 rounds of 5x5, 9 rounds of 6x6 and 7x7, and 12 rounds of OH)
 

leolrg

Member
Joined
Jul 12, 2021
Messages
8
Location
China
Let's give a most comprehensive analysis.

I took all of Max and Tymon's solves from 2021 and 2022. For Max there were 90 (14 rounds) and for Tymon there were 175 (35 rounds). Max's mean and standard deviation were 5.88 and 0.68, approximately, and for Tymon we have 6.06 and 0.93. Indeed, Tymon average slightly slower but has much higher variance. I then generated random times assuming a normal distribution. In a sample of 10,000,000 averages, Tymon "got" 84,778 sub-5 averages while Max got 33,343. In other words, we could say Tymon has a 0.8% chance of getting a sub-5 average in any given round and Max has a 0.3% chance. This seems to support my theory that Tymon has better odds due to his highly varied performance. I find it surprising that Tymon managed to get an average so close to sub-5 in 35 rounds, given the simulation gives it <1% chance. Although, I'd say the "real" probably is probably at most 1-2% for either person given neither actually has a sub-5 average after 49 rounds.
It is flawed because although Max do have a better global average during 2021 to 2022, Max competed much later than Tymon. What I mean is that max started competing in late 2021, while Tymon started in mid 2021. Thus, improvements need to be taken into account. If we only look at the global average of Tymon and Max at the same time(i.e after max has starting to compete), Tymon is by no means worse than Max. Plus, Tymon have more sub 5.5 average than Max, with his 4.73 +2 failed ao5.

Tymon do have better chance of getting sub 5 average, partly due to his variance as @turwig mentioned.

Matty and Leo have much worse performance during comp comparing to Tymon and Max.

Fahmi may not even have chance to compete, and his global average at home is low 6 according to himself in Reddit.

Ruihang definitely have chance if there is competition in China. His recent performance in unofficial online competition in China is insane, and according to himself, he now has global average of mid 5. However, there seems to be no chance of having comp anywhere recent in china due to covid.
 
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