Who do you think will get the first official sub 5 3x3 average?

[qwr]

I feel bad I'm STILL the only Ruihang vote lol

Not because of his ability but because China has been strict on lockdowns still

 

[Imsoosm]

Not because of his ability but because China has been strict on lockdowns still

It's been a bit better here, but the government still closes down a place as soon as they discover an omicron case there. I dunno which city Ruihang lives in, but regardless, China ain't opening comps.

 

[Klaudiusz Szyprocinski]

I think Tymon has the highest chance because he competes quite often.

 

[kubesolver]

It's really just around the corner.

Tymon had a sub-5 ao5 fail this weekend (he needed 4.87 or lower on the 5th solve).

WCA Live

Platform for running WCA competitions and sharing live results with the world.

live.worldcubeassociation.org

Attempts​

4.69, 5.44, 5.08, 5.04, 5.93

Average​

5.19

 

[Imsoosm]

It's really just around the corner.

Tymon had a sub-5 ao5 fail this weekend (he needed 4.87 or lower on the 5th solve).

WCA Live

Platform for running WCA competitions and sharing live results with the world.

live.worldcubeassociation.org

Attempts​

4.69, 5.44, 5.08, 5.04, 5.93

Average​

5.19

Dangit did he fail that solve or was the scramble just bad?

 

[LukasCubes]

Max.

i think the asian guy is fahmi

 

[LukasCubes]

Felix Zemdugs is the goat and will get it just like he got the first sub-6 and other stuff

um no i think hes coming to an end in terms of getting WRs

 

[LukasCubes]

You're all here talking about TH, but Fahmi's gonna get it OH before that happens. Half the hands, half the time.

YES! Fahmi is the most underrated cuber in the entire world rn

 

[LukasCubes]

what does fahmi average on 2h

6 he told me, he averages 8 on oh tho

 

[Blau]

Max will have 19 rounds of 3x3 in july and Tymon will have 11, so I guess we will see the long-awaited sub 5 average very soon

(max also has 15 rounds of 4x4, 13 rounds of 5x5, 9 rounds of 6x6 and 7x7, and 12 rounds of OH)

 

[leolrg]

Let's give a most comprehensive analysis.

I took all of Max and Tymon's solves from 2021 and 2022. For Max there were 90 (14 rounds) and for Tymon there were 175 (35 rounds). Max's mean and standard deviation were 5.88 and 0.68, approximately, and for Tymon we have 6.06 and 0.93. Indeed, Tymon average slightly slower but has much higher variance. I then generated random times assuming a normal distribution. In a sample of 10,000,000 averages, Tymon "got" 84,778 sub-5 averages while Max got 33,343. In other words, we could say Tymon has a 0.8% chance of getting a sub-5 average in any given round and Max has a 0.3% chance. This seems to support my theory that Tymon has better odds due to his highly varied performance. I find it surprising that Tymon managed to get an average so close to sub-5 in 35 rounds, given the simulation gives it <1% chance. Although, I'd say the "real" probably is probably at most 1-2% for either person given neither actually has a sub-5 average after 49 rounds.

It is flawed because although Max do have a better global average during 2021 to 2022, Max competed much later than Tymon. What I mean is that max started competing in late 2021, while Tymon started in mid 2021. Thus, improvements need to be taken into account. If we only look at the global average of Tymon and Max at the same time(i.e after max has starting to compete), Tymon is by no means worse than Max. Plus, Tymon have more sub 5.5 average than Max, with his 4.73 +2 failed ao5.

Tymon do have better chance of getting sub 5 average, partly due to his variance as @turwig mentioned.

Matty and Leo have much worse performance during comp comparing to Tymon and Max.

Fahmi may not even have chance to compete, and his global average at home is low 6 according to himself in Reddit.

Ruihang definitely have chance if there is competition in China. His recent performance in unofficial online competition in China is insane, and according to himself, he now has global average of mid 5. However, there seems to be no chance of having comp anywhere recent in china due to covid.

 

[DynaXT]

Fahmi may not even have chance to compete

Fahmi is going to CC Mini Sunday on July 3rd.

 

[leolrg]

Oh my god than patric ponce's world record is going to broken

Fahmi is going to CC Mini Sunday on July 3rd.

 

[Eli Apperson]

YES! Fahmi is the most underrated cuber in the entire world rn

As far as OH goes, yes, I wouldn't say overall though.

 

[qwr]

However, there seems to be no chance of having comp anywhere recent in china due to covid.

is he able to travel internationally? he may have to quarantine when he gets back tho, idk the current regulations in china

 

[leolrg]

is he able to travel internationally? he may have to quarantine when he gets back tho, idk the current regulations in china

He is "able" to travel internationally, but that will be too time-consuming and inconvenient. He has to do strict quarantine and also there are many other regulations. So he probably will not choose to travel internationally.

 

[Imsoosm]

He is "able" to travel internationally, but that will be too time-consuming and inconvenient. He has to do strict quarantine and also there are many other regulations. So he probably will not choose to travel internationally.

Do any of you know which city Ruihang lives in?? I'm in Shanghai but I don't think he's near the area around here cuz most of his comps are in like mid-south and mid-west places.

 

[qwr]

Do any of you know which city Ruihang lives in?? I'm in Shanghai but I don't think he's near the area around here cuz most of his comps are in like mid-south and mid-west places.

This video introduces Ruihang and Yezhen. I posted a rough translation by ear in the comments. I think it says at 0:20 he's from Zhejiang? Confirmed here:

Lishui boy smashes Rubik's cube Asian records

Xu Ruihang, a 13-year-old boy from Lishui city in East China's Zhejiang province, broke two Asian records in a World Cube Association, or the WCA Rubik Cube Competition staged in China's capital Beijing on April 4.

zhejiang.chinadaily.com.cn

You should post a full translation if possible because I missed some stuff.

 

[gsingh]

Max will have 19 rounds of 3x3 in july and Tymon will have 11, so I guess we will see the long-awaited sub 5 average very soon

(max also has 15 rounds of 4x4, 13 rounds of 5x5, 9 rounds of 6x6 and 7x7, and 12 rounds of OH)

wow! i bet a lot of records will be broken! also it will be nice to see tymon and max finally go head to head

 

[Imsoosm]

Tymon's performance in Szczecin Open is really good. First round he got a 6.08 ao5 (best 4.96), not that great, but in second round he got 5.30 ao5 with TWO low 4s (counting 4.45 and a 4.22). Finals he got even better, a 5.19 ao5 with 4.69 single.