World Record predictions in the year 2020?

[rowehessler]

2x2 - Single the same, sub 2.3 avg.
3x3 - 6.xx single, sub 9 avg.
4x4 - Sub 30 single, sub-38 avg.
5x5 - sub 1 single, sub 1:10 avg.
6x6 - Sub 2 single, sub 2:20 avg.
7x7 - Sub 3:30 single, sub 3:40 avg.
3x3 BLD - 28.xx
4x4 BLD - 3:xx
5x5 BLD - 9:xx
3x3 OH - Sub 12 single, sub 15 avg(Hear that Lofty?)
3x3 fewest moves - 20
3x3 w/ feet - 30.xx
Megaminx - sub 50 single, sub 1 mean
Pyraminx - 1.xx single, sub 3 avg
Square 1 - sub 9 single, sub 12 avg
Clock - same single, sub-9 avg.
Magic - .65 single, .79 avg
Master Magic - No change
3x3 multi BLD - 20(Mike?)

the 2x2 single will DEFINITELY be beaten dude

 

[DavidWoner]

When Ville was practicing it regularly, he was actually averaging around 9:00!

His V-Cube is in the mail.

Oh wow.

Although I doubt it will really make that big of a difference with 5x5x5 BLD. But it might shave 30 seconds off.

I think you're underestimating how bad his ES was. He feels confident that sub6 is possible with a bit of practice.

 

[joey]

Ville's cubes are/were ALL awful

I gave him a 2x2 + 3x3, and he used my 4x4 and 5x5 for competition!

 

[Mike Hughey]

I think you're underestimating how bad his ES was. He feels confident that sub6 is possible with a bit of practice.

Really? My ES wasn't bad at all. I would think for an ES to be that much worse, it would be on the verge of falling apart. But okay.

And somehow, I am not surprised that sub-6 is possible for Ville with a good cube, so I'll take your word for it.

 

[DavidWoner]

I would think for an ES to be that much worse, it would be on the verge of falling apart.

Err yeah, I think that's actually a pretty accurate description -- it completely shattered a week or two after his sub-8.

In any case, we are bound to see something incredible now that THEmazing Ville Seppanen is cubing again.

 

[cmhardw]

I think you're underestimating how bad his ES was. He feels confident that sub6 is possible with a bit of practice.

Not that I'm disbelieving, I'm just trying to understand what this would take as a feat of crazy awesomeness.

I wanted to make an estimation of how fast each step would be in order to achieve sub-6 5x5x5 BLD. I am estimating that cube memorization follows a power function distribution y=a*x^b where x is the size of the cube, and y is the memorization time in seconds. I have seen some other estimates about big cube solving where people suggest it follows a power distribution, so for the purposes of this rough estimation I will follow the same trend. Of course this introduces a huge potential for error in my estimation if this is incorrect. Again, treat this as a first stab at finding an estimate for Ville's break downs.

I know that at his best Ville can memorize the 3x3x3 in around 9 seconds. Again this is an estimation, and in actuality is probably actually even faster than this. Also I have heard that Ville can memorize the 4x4x4 in 45 seconds, so I used these data points to fit the power model.

Using these two points, and fitting a power model to it, I got:
y = 0.0193 * x^5.5945
Where x is the size of the cube (x=3 for 3x3x3, x=4 for 4x4x4) and y is the time taken to memorize the cube in seconds.

So I estimate that Ville could memorize the 5x5x5 cube in:
y = 0.0193 * 5^5.5945 = 157.14 = 2 minutes 37 seconds, or about 2:30 on a good run.

Assuming a sub-6 solve, this would mean a solving time of about 3:20 ish. Using BH it takes on average 369 turns to solve a 5x5x5 cube, and I would argue that this is pretty near move optimal for a big cube to do so for most BLD methods. So for Daniel and I to match this solving speed we would need to not only memo at Ville speed, but solve turning at a sustained 2.35 turns per second. I currently average about 1 turn per second sustained factoring in recall delays.

Ville, if sub-6 is truly possible you are not only my hero and my idol, but you are truly a BLD deity.

--edit--
This power function model is not a good fit for the simple reason that it predicts 0.93 second to memorize a 2x2x2. I'm sure a speed BLD memo might take about 1-2 seconds on some lucky solves, but this is meant to calculate an average memorization time. I'll try to look into this a bit more to see if any data or results already exist from the memory sports community.

--edit#2--
After talking with Mike I think a power function model might not be the best idea, and I also think that my power model is flawed for a couple of reasons. I'm interested to look into this still, and hopefully something neat will turn up.

Chris

 

[Faz]

Faz will be getting the 3x3x3 times in his next comp.

1. Who asked this?

2. How is that on topic?

3. How about saying: "I think...", "in my opinion..", "I hope..." or anything like that instead of saying that it is 100% sure.

4. It's not helping him getting the WR, actually it makes his job harder, he said so.

5. What if he won't? Will you admit that you were wrong? Will you and all the others stop posting this?


Sorry if it sounds rude, I'm kind of new to this forum but every other topic I ran into is about fazrulz1. I'm not saying he is bad, he has a potential but please wait until he is getting better OFFICIALLY! He is not the best cuber in the world, not even in 3x3. Wait until he is becoming the best.

You can be happy for others but the meantime respect the other cubers (the actual record holders), please.

Thanks!

Feel free to comment, that is my opinion...

What Oliver (sorry no acute) said... Please guys shut up. It is getting very, very annoying.

 

[michaellahti]

Tony Fisher finaly decides to start speedcubing when he's 90-he gets a 3.66 his first comp.

 

[ElderKingpin]

in 11 years people might not be speedcubing anymore. because its a possibility.
and in 11 years there will probably a super cube out

 

[nlCuber22]

What Oliver (sorry no acute) said... Please guys shut up. It is getting very, very annoying.

Copy and paste.
Olivér.

 

[KwS Pall]

everyone will be solving supercubes.

 

[moogra]

What Oliver (sorry no acute) said... Please guys shut up. It is getting very, very annoying.

Copy and paste.
Olivér.

Or use alt-130.
Ok for 2010, not 2020

2x2 - 0.8
3x3 - 6.xy
4x4 - 30.xy
5x5 - 1:00.xy
6x6 - no idea
7x7 - no idea
3x3 BLD - sub-30
4x4 BLD - same
5x5 BLD - same
3x3 OH - 12 sec
3x3 fewest moves - same
3x3 w/ feet - no idea
Magic - 0.69
Master Magic - same

 

[DavidWoner]

4x4 BLD - same
5x5 BLD - same

LMAO! Hopefully those won't even last through January.

 

[Dene]

I predict Woneykins will have sub4 clock avg. I am not trolling.

 

[Zane_C]

Hmmm, 2020:
3x3x3= 5.xy
3x3x3 BLD= 27.xy
3x3x3 OH= 9.xy
3x3x3 feet= 29.xy

don't know much bout other puzzles oh wait
2x2x2=0.72

 

[Ranzha]

2010:

2x2: Hard to tell, but if Rowe gets ANOTHER ridiculous solve like his RIDICULOUS 1.03, then he could get as low as 0.85.

3x3: Heh, the record may stand. If not, 6.91 +/- 0.05.

4x4: Can't honestly tell.

5x5: Sub-1. Someone HAS to do it. Let it be Cohen.

3BLD: Haiyan will get a sub-30, and if not, 2011.

3OH: Sub-13. Someone has to do it sooner or later.

FMC: Let it stand. Who in the name of "Houston, we have a cheesecake" is going to pull off a 21?

3 feet: ...Lolwut. I honestly can't see this going much further.

Megaminx: 54.xy by Erik.

Pyraminx: Let it stand.

Sq-1: Let it stand.

Clock: LET IT BE WONER!

6x6 and 7x7: Michal will break his own records.

Magic and Master Magic: Ryan Jew. LET HIM PREVAIL! Loljk. Doubt it will happen. Let them stand.

4BLD: Sub-4 by Hardwick.

5BLD: Sub-14:30 by Hardwick.

3MBLD: Can't tell.

 

[Clarkeeyyy]

OMG, looking at some of these predictions is amazing.

 

[DuffyEdge]

2020 Predictions:

Clock will be replaced by Skewb.. And 8x8 and 6x6 BLD will also join....

2x2 Single - 0.41
2x2 Average - 0.96
3x3 Single - 3.76
3x3 Average - 5.20
4x4 Single - 17.24
4x4 Average - 22.38
5x5 Single - 35.67
5x5 Average - 39.82
6x6 Single - 59.71
6x6 Average - 1:09.24
7x7 Single - 1:56.64
7x7 Average - 2:08.72
8x8 Single - 3:10.27
8x8 Average - 3:19.70
3x3 BLD - 14.84
4x4 BLD - 1:18.77
5x5 BLD - 4:10.69
6x6 BLD - 7:33.59
OH Single - 7.02
OH Average - 8.86
FMC - 17
Feet Single - 16.68
Feet Average - 23.69
Megaminx Single - 25.48
Megaminx Average - 28.92
Pyraminx Single - 0.86
Pyraminx Average - 1.84
Square-1 Single - 6.02
Square-1 Average - 7.14
Skewb Single - 0.85
Skewb Average - 1.46
3x3 MBLD - 56/56, 59:46

And all records will be held by people who we don't know of today.

 

[ben1996123]

oyay more list of random number threads

whatever.

event: single/avg
2x2: not recorded anymore/1.2
3x3: 3.5/5.2
4x4: 16/20
5x5: 35/42
6x6: 1:20/1:30
7x7: 2:00/2:15
OH: 5.3/7.3
BLD: 15
4BLD: 1:30
5BLD: 3:45
FMC: 16
Feet: 16/21
Megaminx: 25/32
Pyraminx: not recorded anymore/1.5
Square 1: 2 if there's no scramble filtering/6
Clock: 3/4
MBLD: 55/55

 

[mark49152]

2020: plastic cubes will have been replaced by holograms with haptic feedback. Instantaneous scrambles, no friction, no pops or lock-ups, no need for Brest's reconstructions...