World Record predictions in the year 2020?

[T1_M0]

hey, these were some actually nice guesses

2020 Predictions:

Clock will be replaced by Skewb.. And 8x8 and 6x6 BLD will also join....

2x2 Single - 0.41
2x2 Average - 0.96
3x3 Single - 3.76
3x3 Average - 5.20
4x4 Single - 17.24
4x4 Average - 22.38
5x5 Single - 35.67
5x5 Average - 39.82
6x6 Single - 59.71
6x6 Average - 1:09.24
7x7 Single - 1:56.64
7x7 Average - 2:08.72
8x8 Single - 3:10.27
8x8 Average - 3:19.70
3x3 BLD - 14.84
4x4 BLD - 1:18.77
5x5 BLD - 4:10.69
6x6 BLD - 7:33.59
OH Single - 7.02
OH Average - 8.86
FMC - 17
Feet Single - 16.68
Feet Average - 23.69
Megaminx Single - 25.48
Megaminx Average - 28.92
Pyraminx Single - 0.86
Pyraminx Average - 1.84
Square-1 Single - 6.02
Square-1 Average - 7.14
Skewb Single - 0.85
Skewb Average - 1.46
3x3 MBLD - 56/56, 59:46

And all records will be held by people who we don't know of today.

 

[WoowyBaby]

What about predict what the records will be in 2025? That’s 6 years from now.
I think they might be:

Event- Single / Average
2x2- 0.41 / 1.01
3x3- 3.13 / 5.02
4x4- 14 / 18
5x5- 31 / 36
6x6- 1:03 / 1:07
7x7- 1:34 / 1:39
3BLD- 13 / 16
FMC- 16 / 22
OH - 5.72 / 8.01
Feet and Clock are removed
Megaminx- 23 / 27
Pyraminx- 0.79 / 1.69
Skewb- 0.94 / 1.82
Square1- 4.14 / 5.79
4BLD- 1:09
5BLD- 2:47
Kilominx is added- 11.22 / 13.88
3x3 MultiBlind- 60/60 59:57

What are your predictions?

 

[chunky]

That's an interesting Idea @WoowyBaby
I think some of those are a bit optimistic *cough cough.. multibld.. cough cough*
But It'll definitely be interesting to see the differences

 

[WoowyBaby]

That's an interesting Idea @WoowyBaby
I think some of those are a bit optimistic *cough cough.. multibld.. cough cough*
But It'll definitely be interesting to see the differences

(yeah 1min avg per cube for multiblind is probably not realistic)
Well if you go back 6 years then the 4x4 single, for example, was 25.34.
18.42/25.34= 0.727
14.x (I’ll put .5) / 18.42 = 0.787
At least for 4x4, I predict the inmprovent will be slightly slower (proportionally) in the next 6 years than past 6 years.
That’s at least for 4x4, for all the other events I don’t know what the math is but if in your opinion you don’t see the records getting much faster then they are today, then that’s fine, I basically just made up random numbers honestly xd

 

[Gomorrite]

2x2 - 0.3/1.1
3x3 - 3.1(Kian Mansour) / 4.90 (Kian Mansour)
4x4 - 16.00 sec(Max Park) / 19.80 sec (Max Park)
5x5 - 32 (Feliks Zemdegs) / 35 (Feliks Zemdegs)
6x6 - 1:10 (Feliks Zemdegs) / 1:15 (Feliks Zemdegs)
7x7 - 1:50 (Feliks Zemdegs) / 1:55 (Feliks Zemdegs)
3x3 BLD - 13.50 (Gianfranco Huanqui) / 18.90(Shivam Bansal)
4x4 BLD - 1:20 (Gianfranco Huanqui/Me/ Kaijun Lin/Roman )
5x5 BLD - 2:50 (Me/Kaijun lin/Roman)
3x3 OH - 5.5 (Kian Mansour) / 8.5 (Kavin Gu_Roux)

3x3 multi BLD - 75/85 (Shivam Bansal)

These were the most interesting predictions made in 2017. They were made 46 months before the end of 2020, and we are now 23 months before the end of 2020. Some people commented at the time that they were impossible and yet 2 of them have already been broken.

Of course, it is much easier now to get a feeling of how right was he:

3x3 - Both single and average will be very very difficult, although not completely impossible.
4x4 - These could happen, but the chances are not very high.
5x5 - Nah, these won't happen
6x6 - Very likely that Max Park will break these
7x7 - Already broken by Max Park
3BLD - Average will likely be broken, but single will be very hard
4BLD - Very likely to be broken
5BLD - There is no reason to believe Stanley Chapel can't beat this
3x3 OH - Very difficult, but there are some chances
MultiBLD - No, I don't think anyone will go above 60 points, and even that will require someone to give up all the time in their life during the next 23 months.

Overall I think around 50% can be done before the end of 2020.

 

[Competition Cuber]

What about predict what the records will be in 2025? That’s 6 years from now.
I think they might be:

Event- Single / Average
2x2- 0.41 / 1.01
3x3- 3.13 / 5.02
4x4- 14 / 18
5x5- 31 / 36
6x6- 1:03 / 1:07
7x7- 1:34 / 1:39
3BLD- 13 / 16
FMC- 16 / 22
OH - 5.72 / 8.01
Feet and Clock are removed
Megaminx- 23 / 27
Pyraminx- 0.79 / 1.69
Skewb- 0.94 / 1.82
Square1- 4.14 / 5.79
4BLD- 1:09
5BLD- 2:47
Kilominx is added- 11.22 / 13.88
3x3 MultiBlind- 60/60 59:57 Edit- 48/48

What are your predictions?

I made a thread

https://www.speedsolving.com/forum/threads/world-record-predictions-for-year-2025.68346/

 

[DesertWolf]

I want to express my firm opinion that the ZB method will transform cubing.
In 2020 many people will have switched to ZB, and start to have consistent sub 9 averages.

But then again, some people thought this back in 2003, as evidenced in the yahoo speedsolving group, but enthusiasm quickly died down.

So, there's a good chance I'm completely wrong.

Having some fun reading through 2009 replies. (not judging them considering our predictions of speed cubing in the future are gonna be as far of as these ones)

3x3: 5.55

And, the new WR holder who get's this record will
use ZZ. I CAN SEE INTO THE FUTURE!!! OOO!!!
:rolleyes:

ZZ didn't really go as planned did it. haha

~coughnochancecough~ It is fast, but I think the people average 12 or so with roux, may have reached the limit to how fast it goes.

Kian would like to have a word with you xD

2x2 - Single the same, sub 2.3 avg.
3x3 - 6.xx single, sub 9 avg.
4x4 - Sub 30 single, sub-38 avg.
5x5 - sub 1 single, sub 1:10 avg.
6x6 - Sub 2 single, sub 2:20 avg.
7x7 - Sub 3:30 single, sub 3:40 avg.
3x3 BLD - 28.xx
4x4 BLD - 3:xx
5x5 BLD - 9:xx
3x3 OH - Sub 12 single, sub 15 avg(Hear that Lofty?)
3x3 fewest moves - 20
3x3 w/ feet - 30.xx
Megaminx - sub 50 single, sub 1 mean
Pyraminx - 1.xx single, sub 3 avg
Square 1 - sub 9 single, sub 12 avg
Clock - same single, sub-9 avg.
Magic - .65 single, .79 avg
Master Magic - No change
3x3 multi BLD - 20(Mike?)

Faz will be getting the 3x3x3 times in his next comp.

^^ This one basically sums up the previous quoted message.

As i said i'm not judging any of this. It was 2009, cubing was completely different. And probably we will be laughing at ourselves in 2025, but hey still had some fun reading through some of these.

 

[DGCubes]

That's an interesting Idea @WoowyBaby
I think some of those are a bit optimistic *cough cough.. multibld.. cough cough*
But It'll definitely be interesting to see the differences

I'd be very surprised if MBLD doesn't reach 60 points in 6 years, especially seeing how much work people have been putting into it nowadays. Just look at the earlier posts in this thread; people thought sub-8 3x3 averages might happen by next year.

 

[chunky]

I'd be very surprised if MBLD doesn't reach 60 points in 6 years, especially seeing how much work people have been putting into it nowadays. Just look at the earlier posts in this thread; people thought sub-8 3x3 averages might happen by next year.

UwU DGCubes lol
Doing the math, let's say that inspection takes 20 minutes (which is fast, 20 seconds per cube), that leaves 40 seconds per cube to be solved. So as @WoowyBaby said, 1 min per cube. That kind of precision is insane. Right now the world record is 48/48, so that doesn't account for solving and inspecting an extra 12 cubes.
Tbh I wouldn't be surprised if we started seeing 5x5 MBLD because people like Tom Nelson are really quick. Even that's an understatement

 

[Mike Hughey]

chunky lol
First notice that DGCubes was talking about a 2025 prediction, not a 2020 prediction. It would be outrageous to think someone is likely to get 60/60 by 2020, but I don't see it as outrageous by 2025.

There are probably 5 people who have made credible attempts at 50 cubes; 50/50 could still happen any day. So people only need to improve by 10 cubes, not 12.

It is true that we seem to be in an interest lull at the moment. Shivam hit the record and then it seemed like the fire went out of the top 5. I haven't seen much from Graham, Kamil, Shivam, Mark, etc. lately. But there will certainly be a couple more waves of assaults on that record by 2025. The previous record jump was from 42 to 48, with multiple people capable of doing 50. Some silly people actually thought Maskow's record would never be broken.Now that's a quaint idea. It is certainly possible someone could do 60 by 2025.

Edit: I take it back - Graham still seems to be working on it; he's been trying 53 in our Weekly Competition for quite a while lately, and making very credible attempts at it. His most recent attempt he had 3 minutes left over. So Graham could hit 53 or 54 or maybe even 55 on a really good day right now. And he's motivated - he hasn't gotten a WR yet.

 

[abunickabhi]

These were the most interesting predictions made in 2017. They were made 46 months before the end of 2020, and we are now 23 months before the end of 2020. Some people commented at the time that they were impossible and yet 2 of them have already been broken.

Of course, it is much easier now to get a feeling of how right was he:

3x3 - Both single and average will be very very difficult, although not completely impossible.
4x4 - These could happen, but the chances are not very high.
5x5 - Nah, these won't happen (Edit: Advances in 5x5 hardware+ Max Park makes this possible yo)
6x6 - Very likely that Max Park will break these
7x7 - Already broken by Max Park
3BLD - Average will likely be broken, but single will be very hard (Edit: For single we have Jake Klassken and Max and Jeff at it, give them an 8 algs or less and they will do it.)
4BLD - Very likely to be broken (Edit: Worlds 19 podium is going to be epic)
5BLD - There is no reason to believe Stanley Chapel can't beat this (Edit: Yay)
3x3 OH - Very difficult, but there are some chances (Edit: Rouxolution)
MultiBLD - No, I don't think anyone will go above 60 points, and even that will require someone to give up all the time in their life during the next 23 months. (Edit: Graham and Shivam are getting there atm)

Overall I think around 50% can be done before the end of 2020.

Graham is already close to getting 60 points at home, so we are getting there, as advances in BLD algs are being made.

Thank you for appreciating my predictions yo!

 

[Gomorrite]

Graham and Shivam are making progress, but WB is still 49 points by Kamil. I think their improvement per practiced time will start showing a lot of diminishing returns now. As Mike Hughey said, I think it could happen by 2025 but 2020 seems too soon to me.

 

[chunky]

chunky lol
First notice that DGCubes was talking about a 2025 prediction, not a 2020 prediction. It would be outrageous to think someone is likely to get 60/60 by 2020, but I don't see it as outrageous by 2025.

There are probably 5 people who have made credible attempts at 50 cubes; 50/50 could still happen any day. So people only need to improve by 10 cubes, not 12.

It is true that we seem to be in an interest lull at the moment. Shivam hit the record and then it seemed like the fire went out of the top 5. I haven't seen much from Graham, Kamil, Shivam, Mark, etc. lately. But there will certainly be a couple more waves of assaults on that record by 2025. The previous record jump was from 42 to 48, with multiple people capable of doing 50. Some silly people actually thought Maskow's record would never be broken.Now that's a quaint idea. It is certainly possible someone could do 60 by 2025.

Edit: I take it back - Graham still seems to be working on it; he's been trying 53 in our Weekly Competition for quite a while lately, and making very credible attempts at it. His most recent attempt he had 3 minutes left over. So Graham could hit 53 or 54 or maybe even 55 on a really good day right now. And he's motivated - he hasn't gotten a WR yet.

Even if he starts getting it around half the time at home, there is still going to be pressure surrounding the competition. I would be very surprised if the MBLD WR isn't broken this year. Of course, 60/60 is definitely possible in 5 years, I'm just skeptical of the likeliness of the top people managing to pull it off in comp. Graham is 100% going to be 59/60 with 2 edges off. (sorry graham)

 

[Mike Hughey]

That's what people figured with Shivam, and with Maskow before him. And yet...

I don't know if it's the same for them at their level as it is for me at my pitiful level, but some days, my memory is just solid, for no reason I know, and everything just sticks, and execution is comfortable and solid. On those days, it seems almost trivial to get 100%. And several times those days for me have been in competition. I suspect it's the same for them. (Otherwise, how do you explain 41/41 and 48/48?)

 

[chunky]

That's what people figured with Shivam, and with Maskow before him. And yet...

I don't know if it's the same for them at their level as it is for me at my pitiful level, but some days, my memory is just solid, for no reason I know, and everything just sticks, and execution is comfortable and solid. On those days, it seems almost trivial to get 100%. And several times those days for me have been in competition. I suspect it's the same for them. (Otherwise, how do you explain 41/41 and 48/48?)

Well, some people have a photographic memory. That would be insane for blind solves.
I think currently it is possible for some cubers to get 60/60, just not on a regular basis.
sidenote- sq1 blind is super impressive

 

[sigalig]

These were the most interesting predictions made in 2017. They were made 46 months before the end of 2020, and we are now 23 months before the end of 2020. Some people commented at the time that they were impossible and yet 2 of them have already been broken.

Of course, it is much easier now to get a feeling of how right was he:

3x3 - Both single and average will be very very difficult, although not completely impossible.
4x4 - These could happen, but the chances are not very high.
5x5 - Nah, these won't happen
6x6 - Very likely that Max Park will break these
7x7 - Already broken by Max Park
3BLD - Average will likely be broken, but single will be very hard
4BLD - Very likely to be broken
5BLD - There is no reason to believe Stanley Chapel can't beat this
3x3 OH - Very difficult, but there are some chances
MultiBLD - No, I don't think anyone will go above 60 points, and even that will require someone to give up all the time in their life during the next 23 months.

Overall I think around 50% can be done before the end of 2020.

I think 60 points could happen in 2019, and definitely over 60 points in 2020

 

[Gomorrite]

I think 60 points could happen in 2019, and definitely over 60 points in 2020

Congratulations on the WB, I just saw your video.

 

[ecuber57]

uh.................................................... im here in 2019 and here are a few records:

3x3: 3.47
2x2: 0.49
4x4: 19.??
you were wayyyyyyyyyyyyy off.

 

[Mike Hughey]

2x2 - Single the same, sub 2.3 avg.
3x3 - 6.xx single, sub 9 avg.
4x4 - Sub 30 single, sub-38 avg.
5x5 - sub 1 single, sub 1:10 avg.
6x6 - Sub 2 single, sub 2:20 avg.
7x7 - Sub 3:30 single, sub 3:40 avg.
3x3 BLD - 28.xx
4x4 BLD - 3:xx
5x5 BLD - 9:xx
3x3 OH - Sub 12 single, sub 15 avg(Hear that Lofty?)
3x3 fewest moves - 20
3x3 w/ feet - 30.xx
Megaminx - sub 50 single, sub 1 mean
Pyraminx - 1.xx single, sub 3 avg
Square 1 - sub 9 single, sub 12 avg
Clock - same single, sub-9 avg.
Magic - .65 single, .79 avg
Master Magic - No change
3x3 multi BLD - 20(Mike?)

To show how far off Hadley was on these, Harry Savage by himself currently has all these beat except 6x6x6 single, 3BLD, 5BLD, multiBLD, and megaminx single (well, and magic and master magic). Does anyone else get even closer to having them all personally?

Ron will finally retire from being in charge of the WCA, and István Kocza will take over. So then we'll have the following records:

6x6x6 BLD: 24:35
7x7x7 BLD: 38:26
Megaminx BLD: 15:10

Wow, I was wrong on this. Of course my silly joke that István would take over and make these actual events was obviously never going to happen, but I never would have imagined that I would personally beat the 6BLD and 7BLD times by several minutes. And of course the UWR is now 8:10.10 for 6BLD, 14:59.74 for 7BLD, and 7:22.31 for megaminx. So yeah, I was way off - times got that much faster than I thought even without the incentive of official results!

 

[willtri4]

To show how far off Hadley was on these, Harry Savage by himself currently has all these beat except 6x6x6 single, 3BLD, 5BLD, multiBLD, and megaminx single (well, and magic and master magic). Does anyone else get even closer to having them all personally?

Martin Vaedele Egdal has all but feet, 5BLD, and MBLD