Probability Thread

[FenTheGoat]

Sinse there’s already 2,000 responses to this thread, I don’t know if this was mentioned. But, the odds of an LL skip is 1/15,552, and the kids odds of an LL skip with no AUF is 1/62,208, or a 0.000016% chance.

 

[CatSharked]

What are the chances of getting the same time twice in a row

 

[Discomantis]

What are the chances of getting the same time twice in a rowView attachment 23512

It just depends on how fast you solved. There's no answer to this problem.

 

[Deleted member 36445]

what's the probability of getting an LL skip on 4x4?

I just got one and I don't know if I'm lucky or not because I was not timing it

 

[Discomantis]

what's the probability of getting an LL skip on 4x4?

I just got one and I don't know if I'm lucky or not because I was not timing it

If you use redux or yau it is a 1 in 62208. If you use OLL parity avoidance it is 1 in 31104.

 

[Deleted member 36445]

If you use redux or yau it is a 1 in 62208. If you use OLL parity avoidance it is 1 in 31104.

I barely know redux

wow that is pretty rare

thanks for the statistics. now I can spend the night thinking about my actions

 

[THE_V01DL0RD]

What are the odds of getting an efficient xxxx-cross with LL skip? I saw a video of that just wanted to know how lucky he was.

 

[xyzzy]

What are the odds of getting xxxx-cross with LL skip? I saw a video of that just wanted to know how lucky he was.

If you use Roux, it's pretty close to 100%.

 

[Discomantis]

What are the odds of getting xxxx-cross with LL skip? I saw a video of that just wanted to know how lucky he was.

You can always make an XXXX cross. It's just that it isn't always the best idea. LL skip is 1/15552, so using CFOP with the most optimal XXXX cross solution, the odds are 1 in 15552.

 

[SpeakCuba]

I’m pretty sure it’s been answered already, and I don’t have much time right now to calculate the math for it. What’s the probability of getting 2 PLL skips in a row?

 

[Jorian Meeuse]

I’m pretty sure it’s been answered already, and I don’t have much time right now to calculate the math for it. What’s the probability of getting 2 PLL skips in a row?

Whatever the probability for a PLL skip is, but squared, iirc 1 in 72^2 so 1 in 5184

 

[SpeakCuba]

Whatever the probability for a PLL skip is, but squared, iirc 1 in 72^2 so 1 in 5184

Yep, just wasn‘t 100% sure. Thanks.

 

[Jason Tzeng]

Got this scramble 46 mins ago

L2 D' B2 D F2 U2 F L B' U2 R2 D2 L2 B' D2 F' D2 F2 R2 U'

Yellow cross done, and I solved it with a PLL skip solution(OLLCP actually) but I lockup and got 10.55, didn't break sub 10 barrier, even not PB.

How rare to get a 3×3 scramble with a cross skip? (Use "Search" but can't find what I want lol)

 

[Deleted member 36445]

What are the odds of getting xxxx-cross with LL skip? I saw a video of that just wanted to know how lucky he was.

if you don't scramble the cube, 100%

 

[Jorian Meeuse]

Got this scramble 46 mins ago

L2 D' B2 D F2 U2 F L B' U2 R2 D2 L2 B' D2 F' D2 F2 R2 U'

Yellow cross done, and I solved it with a PLL skip solution(OLLCP actually) but I lockup and got 10.55, didn't break sub 10 barrier, even not PB.

How rare to get a 3×3 scramble with a cross skip? (Use "Search" but can't find what I want lol)

If you are specifically referring to a white cross skip:
There are 4 cross edges that have to be solved. The first edge has 24 possible positions, then the next 22, then 20, then 18. That is 24 x 22 x 20 x 18 = 190080 possible positions for these 4 pieces, 1 of which is a solved cross. The probability is therefore 1 in 190080.

If you allow any cross colour, it should be 6 times as likely, so 1 in 31680. Edit: now that I think about it the probability may be a bit different because of mulitple crosses being possibly solved in one scramble. Still, it should be around 1 in 31680

This seems like a very low probability to me considering I have had an X-cross skip before. If my math is wrong anywhere for some reason feel free to correct!

 

[qwr]

If you are specifically referring to a white cross skip:
There are 4 cross edges that have to be solved. The first edge has 24 possible positions, then the next 22, then 20, then 18. That is 24 x 22 x 20 x 18 = 190080 possible positions for these 4 pieces, 1 of which is a solved cross. The probability is therefore 1 in 190080.

If you allow any cross colour, it should be 6 times as likely, so 1 in 31680. Edit: now that I think about it the probability may be a bit different because of mulitple crosses being possibly solved in one scramble. Still, it should be around 1 in 31680

This seems like a very low probability to me considering I have had an X-cross skip before. If my math is wrong anywhere for some reason feel free to correct!

CubeZone - Cross study

 

[Jorian Meeuse]

CubeZone - Cross study

Thanks! So the probability is approximately 1 in 31704 and exactly 30942374 in 980995276800 or 15471187 in 4904976384.

 

[Jason Tzeng]

Thanks you guys, I'm really bad at calculating the probability and combination haha.

 

[Isaiah Scott]

Got this scramble 46 mins ago

L2 D' B2 D F2 U2 F L B' U2 R2 D2 L2 B' D2 F' D2 F2 R2 U'

Yellow cross done, and I solved it with a PLL skip solution(OLLCP actually) but I lockup and got 10.55, didn't break sub 10 barrier, even not PB.

How rare to get a 3×3 scramble with a cross skip? (Use "Search" but can't find what I want lol)

I got a Yperm for PLL

 

[SpeakCuba]

I just got 3 PLL skips in a row