Probability Thread

[Daniel Lin]

probability of having a face of opposite colors solved already on a 2x2?

or if someone has a frequency table for the number of states for each movecount that would be nice

 

[FastCubeMaster]

Can someone find the highest ratios of cubers (competed officially) in a country to the country's population.

 

[Dr_Detonation]

There are 15,403 Americans who have competed officially. The U.S. population was estimated at 323 million in 2016. So, it's a little less than 1:20,970 for the USA

 

[Oliver1010]

I just got a cross skip this is the scramble
D' L2 F' U2 L2 B2 F2 U2 R2 B R2 L F D F L B U

I also have gotten two OLL skips in a row before

 

[Rubix Cubix]

Can someone find the highest ratios of cubers (competed officially) in a country to the country's population.

Haven't got anything to back it up with evidence, but somebody told me the other day it was Poland.

 

[Oliver1010]

Does anyone know the chances of getting a first layer skip?
I got two first layer skips on a 2x2
U F' U R F' R F U2 R' U'
R F2 R2 U2 F' U R F' U F'

 

[AlphaSheep]

Does anyone know the chances of getting a first layer skip?
I got a first layer skip on a 2x2
U F' U R F' R F U2 R' U'

You can always solve at least one corner by rotating. Then there are 7 places for the 2nd corner, 6 for the 3rd, and 5 for the 4th. Each of those 3 corners has a 1/3 chance of being oriented correctly, so the chance of a layer skip is 1 in 7*6*5*3*3*3, which is 1 in 5670.

Edit: this is the chance of a first layer skip of a specific colour, eg white.

 

[Oliver1010]

You can always solve at least one corner by rotating. Then there are 7 places for the 2nd corner, 6 for the 3rd, and 5 for the 4th. Each of those 3 corners has a 1/3 chance of being oriented correctly, so the chance of a layer skip is 1 in 7*6*5*3*3*3, which is 1 in 5670.

Edit: this is the chance of a first layer skip of a specific colour, eg white.

What are the chances of a first layer skip on other size cubes?

 

[teboecubes]

One I got a 2x2 first layer skip, did OLL, then PLL skip

 

[Oliver1010]

What is the probability of a T Perm during blindfolded?

 

[obelisk477]

That has a 1 in 6 chance, not unlikely at all

? 1/6 is just for PLL skip, not first layer skip as well. Not sure what the odds for that are though. Guess it depends on color neutrality

 

[Underwatercuber]

What's the probability of having a clock cross correctly solved and oriented? Solved but unoriented? 1 move from being unsolved?

 

[Cale S]

? 1/6 is just for PLL skip, not first layer skip as well. Not sure what the odds for that are though. Guess it depends on color neutrality

oops read the post wrong lol

 

[guysensei1]

Asked before but lost the post so i'll ask again, whats the probability that a 3x3 LL case can be AUFed into a 3C3E?

 

[TipsterTrickster]

I'm guessing the probibility of getting a 3x3 stage skip on big cube is 1/43 quintillion (correct me if I'm wrong) but what about a f2l skip?

 

[obelisk477]

I'm guessing the probibility of getting a 3x3 stage skip on big cube is 1/43 quintillion (correct me if I'm wrong) but what about a f2l skip?

It's actually 4 times that because of parities

 

[xyzzy]

It's actually 4 times that because of parities

A quarter, not four times, but only on even-order cubes.

 

[obelisk477]

A quarter, not four times, but only on even-order cubes.

Right. I mean 4 times worse. And I guess it would be half on odd numbered cubes

 

[Cale S]

Right. I mean 4 times worse. And I guess it would be half on odd numbered cubes

Why half on odd numbered cubes?

 

[obelisk477]

Why half on odd numbered cubes?

No PLL parity?

EDIT: Oh, I see. I was equating edge pairing parity on odd cubes with OLL parity on even cubes. Which is valid if you say your 3x3 stage is 'done' before the edge pairing parity stage.