Derren Brown to Predict Lottery

[Kolraz]

Yeh I agree, that would be dumb

Here is a link to an article about it released from the lottery official site. Some intesting thoughts but nothing which really leads us closer to a definate answer until tommorrow.
http://www.lottery.co.uk/news/derren-brown-lottery-results.asp

 

[Toad]

Dunno how he does it but just thinking of things I did notice.

Biggest thing is while the balls are announced he doesn't like react but looks like he's talking to someone through a wire in his hand... rather strange reaction tbh.

Anyone else notice this?

 

[Kolraz]

Yeh I though his reaction was strange. But what you have to remember is he knows he isn't really doing it. A reaction would simply be acting.

 

[Toad]

Me and a mate are pretty sure we've worked it out... Here goes:

1. It is obvious that he doesn't know what the numbers are before hand.

2. It is strange that he doesn't write down the numbers as they come up but instead waits for them all to finish and wastes quite a bit of time doing this.

3. The camera shakes around an awful lot and if you watch other channel 4 shows with their sophisticated mobile tripods it's easy to keep it more steady than this. These motions of the camera while he's doing it all are very slight the whole time and could very easily be done digitally.

Therefore... We reckon that it's like a split screen so the left half of the screen is solid (or looping a few seconds) while what actually happens is there is somebody there putting the balls onto the stand while he is voicing what balls to get to somebody else back stage. Then when he goes over the split screen thing is switched off and the camera is then controlled once more by a person zooming it in.

Bit weird why he introduces the fact there is two cameras at the start but only shows the shot from one of them during the trick...?

But yeh... any thoughts?

 

[CharlieCooper]

Me and a mate are pretty sure we've worked it out... Here goes:

1. It is obvious that he doesn't know what the numbers are before hand.

2. It is strange that he doesn't write down the numbers as they come up but instead waits for them all to finish and wastes quite a bit of time doing this.

3. The camera shakes around an awful lot and if you watch other channel 4 shows with their sophisticated mobile tripods it's easy to keep it more steady than this. These motions of the camera while he's doing it all are very slight the whole time and could very easily be done digitally.

Therefore... We reckon that it's like a split screen so the left half of the screen is solid (or looping a few seconds) while what actually happens is there is somebody there putting the balls onto the stand while he is voicing what balls to get to somebody else back stage. Then when he goes over the split screen thing is switched off and the camera is then controlled once more by a person zooming it in.

Bit weird why he introduces the fact there is two cameras at the start but only shows the shot from one of them during the trick...?

But yeh... any thoughts?

Okay...

Well, I like that theory except there are two problems.

1. That is not Derren at all, and almost anybody could do that.

2. If he had been writing the numbers out as they came out, he would need to know the order. Having said this, as the balls were whirring around, he could have written on a long strip of card his prediction very quickly, then just flipped it over.

 

[PatrickJameson]

Okay...

Well, I like that theory except there are two problems.

1. That is not Derren at all, and almost anybody could do that.

Well at the end he does say he will be explaining how he does it and how we can do it too.

 

[MTGjumper]

Yeah, but he's done that before where he's explained bits and then left other bits unanswered, raising more questions (a good example is "The System"). I reckon he'll explain some stuff but basically tease us.

 

[Kolraz]

All of the theories I can possibly think of and have read just simply don't do it for me. He DIDN'T know the numbers beforehand, and thats the fact. Its also a fact that he only announced his prediction AFTER the numbers. However, none of the theories require Derren to do anything at all. Digital Balls/Projection Balls/Lasered Numbers, Split Screens. Anyone can do these things and I simply don't think this can be it. It takes minutes to plan these things, not a year.

Has anyone ever thought that maybe he is going to lie on friday? Perhaps he will feed us a false story about some so called predictions from statistics and such, but in reality he DID use some sort of gimmick? I'm starting to think that maybe what he says on friday will either not be the full picture like MTG said, or completely untruthful. =/

 

[brunson]

I think he can really see the future.
Either that or it was a trick

 

[Kolraz]

I think he can really see the future.
Either that or it was a trick

I'd sooner accept the "digital balls" theory

 

[Edam]

the most plausible explanation i've heard is that the footage is split screened. and an assistant puts the right balls in behind the 'fake' image. then the images are digitally knitted together again just before derren walks to that side of the room. I think that's how I'd do it.

But still, it doesn't quite seem his style. I'm hoping he gives a different story tonight (even if it's just a lot of smoke and he actually did it with digital camera trickery lol)

 

[teller]

What if he filmed every possible outcome, and then put a greenscreen over the TV so that the live news broadcast appeared inside the previously recorded video, overlaid onto the TV?

There are a ridiculous number of lottery number combinations, but he sorted them, so order is disregarded, shrinking the number combinations down considerably, although my intuition says it's still in the millions...perhaps didn't shoot them all and would have been happy to get 5 of 6 correct...

And as the numbers are being announced, he stands very still...perhaps the video is switched at that moment. You would think it would be very difficult to stand in the exact spot, though, without it being noticeable.

I don't know! GAAAAHHH!!!

 

[brunson]

There are a ridiculous number of lottery number combinations, but he sorted them, so order is disregarded, shrinking the number combinations down considerably, although my intuition says it's still in the millions...
I don't know! GAAAAHHH!!!

C(49,6)=13,666,002

 

[LarsN]

Two danish magicians did the same thing to day. They went on a show today and placed 7 numbered balls in a safe. The numbers were not revealed to the audience, but simply placed in the safe. The lottery is to be drawn tomorrow, and on the next show this monday the safe will be opened and the numbers revealed. The safe can be seen on a live webcam until it is opened. supposedly only the lottery people have the key for the safe.

 

[cookingfat]

Me and a mate are pretty sure we've worked it out... Here goes:

1. It is obvious that he doesn't know what the numbers are before hand.

2. It is strange that he doesn't write down the numbers as they come up but instead waits for them all to finish and wastes quite a bit of time doing this.

3. The camera shakes around an awful lot and if you watch other channel 4 shows with their sophisticated mobile tripods it's easy to keep it more steady than this. These motions of the camera while he's doing it all are very slight the whole time and could very easily be done digitally.

Therefore... We reckon that it's like a split screen so the left half of the screen is solid (or looping a few seconds) while what actually happens is there is somebody there putting the balls onto the stand while he is voicing what balls to get to somebody else back stage. Then when he goes over the split screen thing is switched off and the camera is then controlled once more by a person zooming it in.

Bit weird why he introduces the fact there is two cameras at the start but only shows the shot from one of them during the trick...?

But yeh... any thoughts?

Okay...

Well, I like that theory except there are two problems.

1. That is not Derren at all, and almost anybody could do that.

2. If he had been writing the numbers out as they came out, he would need to know the order. Having said this, as the balls were whirring around, he could have written on a long strip of card his prediction very quickly, then just flipped it over.

the most plausible explanation i've heard is that the footage is split screened. and an assistant puts the right balls in behind the 'fake' image. then the images are digitally knitted together again just before derren walks to that side of the room. I think that's how I'd do it.

But still, it doesn't quite seem his style. I'm hoping he gives a different story tonight (even if it's just a lot of smoke and he actually did it with digital camera trickery lol)

I fully agree, Derren definately does not do camera tricks or anything of the sort. We'll just have to wait a few minutes and we'll all find out

 

[MTGjumper]

Told you it would just raise more questions

 

[Asheboy]

I missed the show. How did he do it?

 

[CharlieCooper]

Load of rubbish.

Implies he either fixed it, or that he got some people to subconsciously guess numbers then he averaged them to gain his prediction. Ridiculous, I have lost faith in Derren

 

[MTGjumper]

He says he averaged the predictions from 24 other people as they wrote without thinking (he gave it a specific name) but I'm guessing he ignored this and did it his own way, which he neglected to tell us. Either that or he fixed the lottery.

 

[Kolraz]

We still don't have a definate answer. Anyone feel severely dissapointed/annoyed?

Don't have time to fully explain, but he offered two explanations.

1. The "Wisdown of Crowds" theory. Where he got 24 volunteers to predict them based on the last year. He then averaged them out and got an average prediction for each ball.

Definately not possible...

2. He fixed the machine with weighted balls using an insider.

He sort of suggested at the second theory, asking us to make our own minds up.

None of the theorys makes sense, as the second would have him arrested.

We didn't even get an answer and I feel so annoyed right now. I think it's just a cover up for one of the other dumb theories.