I am. Still a lowball estimate IMO but I am admittedly bad at FB especially the way it's built in Mehta.but it is realistic assuming you're CN
EDIT: Case in point: Your last 3 solves in the Mehta example solve thread were 9, 7, and 8 moves respectively... (8 moves was FB+1 belt edge)...
Btw, you could also argue: 222 in 4 moves and extension in 5-6... For a 9-10 move 223 in Petrus. (Source: FMC Thread.) No one is consistently being that efficient in a speed solve though.