World Record predictions in the year 2020?

[gateway cuber]

What's the chance that Megaminx catches up with 4x4? There are more faces, but there are 50 pieces to place for megaminx and 56 for 4x4. If you figure that centers have one possible orientation, edges have two, and corners have 3 you end up with the following piece-orientations:

2x2: 24
3x3: 60
4x4: 108
5x5: 156
6x6: 228
7x7: 300
Megaminx: 120

I used 4.9 seconds as the basis, and squared the ratio of the number of orientations, and came up with this quite reasonable-looking estimate (2x2 single is already beaten, so I'll say this is the limit for averages):

2x2: 0.78
3x3: 4.90 (will probably be beaten, but it's my basis)
4x4: 15.87
5x5: 33.12
6x6: 1:10.75
7x7: 2:02.50
Megaminx: 19.6

ooooooh, idea, I could be terribly mistaken but unless I'm wrong 2x2 only has so many orientations (not taking into account permutations) so If you memorized all the orientation cases you could just finish of with LBL and boom done! resulting in yet another 2x2 alg set. how many algs would this be? and if it's not to many would this method be viable?

 

[One Wheel]

ooooooh, idea, I could be terribly mistaken but unless I'm wrong 2x2 only has so many orientations (not taking into account permutations) so If you memorized all the orientation cases you could just finish of with LBL and boom done! resulting in yet another 2x2 alg set. how many algs would this be? and if it's not to many would this method be viable?

I'm not sure I follow. But you made me realize: you can always start with at least one corner solved on a 2x2. That changes my prediction down:

2x2: 0.60

 

[YTCuber]

You can start with one piece solved on 2x2, 4x4, 6x6 and Skewb.

 

[One Wheel]

You can start with one piece solved on 2x2, 4x4, 6x6 and Skewb.

Fair enough. I don't do skewb, clock, or pyraminx so I don't know enough to make an intelligent estimate there.

Assuming that you start with one solved corner on 2x2, and 1 solved center piece on 4x4 and 6x6:

2x2: 0.60
3x3: 4.90
4x4: 15.58
5x5: 33.12
6x6: 1:10.14
7x7: 2:02.50
Megaminx: 19.60

I'm going to mess around a little with increasing different pieces by different ratios, instead of a straight ^2.

Edit: nevermind. I like my predictions. I am curious to see if I'm ridiculously optimistic on Megaminx, though.

 

[shadowslice e]

Fair enough. I don't do skewb, clock, or pyraminx so I don't know enough to make an intelligent estimate there.

Assuming that you start with one solved corner on 2x2, and 1 solved center piece on 4x4 and 6x6:

2x2: 0.60
3x3: 4.90
4x4: 15.58
5x5: 33.12
6x6: 1:10.14
7x7: 2:02.50
Megaminx: 19.60

I'm going to mess around a little with increasing different pieces by different ratios, instead of a straight ^2.

Edit: nevermind. I like my predictions. I am curious to see if I'm ridiculously optimistic on Megaminx, though.

Honestly, I think that you are being ridiculously optimistic by assuming that there is a more or less linear relation between the puzzles (so i would say that these sorts of times are very very unlikely if not impossible to achieve with current methods (though if a new one is created and is fantastically good i think that they could be possible)) as the moves don't real scale in the same way.

I would say that it is more likely to be some sort of exponential relation between number of pieces and time

 

[One Wheel]

Honestly, I think that you are being ridiculously optimistic by assuming that there is a more or less linear relation between the puzzles (so i would say that these sorts of times are very very unlikely if not impossible to achieve with current methods (though if a new one is created and is fantastically good i think that they could be possible)) as the moves don't real scale in the same way.

I would say that it is more likely to be some sort of exponential relation between number of pieces and time

Hence squaring the possible piece - orientation ratios. The only one there that seems impossible to me given current methods and records is megaminx, but in 2009 the first prediction in this thread was of a sub-50s single sub-1:00 mean, and those have already been beaten by about 15 and 20 seconds respectively, and in my observation megaminx hardware is just in the last few months starting to catch up with 3x3 or other cubes.

 

[Mr Cubism]

3BLD: 18.70/22.80

Hmmm...........

 

[gateway cuber]

by 2020...
2x2: 0.4/1.2x
3x3: 4.3x/6.0x maybe sub 6?
4x4: sub 20/22.xx
5x5: 41.xx/45.xx
6x6: sub 1:30/sub 1:40
7x7: 2:15.xx/2:20.xx
mega: 32.xx/36.xx
bld: 18.xx/20.xx
multi: 45/45?
4bld: sub2
5bld: sub 4:50
OH: sub 6/sub10
squan: sub 6/sub 8.5
feet: 18.xx/23.xx
Pyra: sub 1/sub 2
skewb: sub 1/stays same or close to same
clock: same/low 5 sub 4?
Kilo: sub 18/20.xx?

but that's just me... I think these estimations push most of these events limits except big cubes

well these were achieved a lot faster than I had thought...

5x5 single
6x6 avg
almost mega single (stupid +2)
BLD single
5x5 single
skewb avg
and clock avg all broken

 

[turtwig]

I'll jump on this bandwagon and see how long these take to break...

3x3: 3.61/5.23 (Single broken by Yusheng Du on 11/24/18)
2x2: 0.39/1.12
4x4: 18.63/22.84 (Both broken by Max Park on 5/27/18)
5x5: 35.49/39.49 (Single broken by Max Park on 1/25/20)
6x6: 1:09.91/1:20.12 (Single broken by Max Park on 1/25/20; Average broken by Max Park on 7/15/18)
7x7: 1:48.92/1:58.10 (Both broken by Max Park on 7/14/18)
3BLD: 15.50/18.67 (lol hope the WR single stays what it is)
OH: 5.75/8.52 (UWR is 5.06/7.30)
FMC: 16/21.67 (Single tied by Sebastiano Tronto on 6/15/19; Average broken by Cale Schoon on 1/19/20)
Feet: 15.26/22.43 (Average broken by Daniel Rose-Levine on 7/19/18 (RIP feet))
Clock: 2.98/3.99 (UWR is 2.15/3.55)
Mega: 26.12/30.91 (Average broken by Juan Pablo Huanqui on 8/11/19)
Pyra: 0.81/1.61 (UWR average is 1.13)
Skwb: 0.87/1.70 (UWR average is 1.27)
Sq-1: 4.67/6.99 (Average broken by Vicenzo Guerino Cecchini on 10/20/18)
4BLD: 1:13.23 (Broken by Stanley Chapel on 4/28/19)
5BLD: 3:29.41 (Broken by Stanley Chapel on 12/1/18)
MBLD: 59/60 59:52 (Broken by Graham Siggins on 11/9/19)

(For the end of 2020).

 

[One Wheel]

I'll jump on this bandwagon and see how long these take to break...

3x3: 3.97/5.45
4x4: 17.63/20.84
5x5: 32.49/34.49
2x2: 0.39/1.12
3BLD: 15.50/20.00
OH: 5.88/8.78
FMC: 16/21.67
Feet: 15.26/21.43
Mega: 23.12/27.91
Pyra: 0.81/1.72
Sq-1: 4.97/7.82
Clock: 2.98/3.99
Skwb: 0.87/1.91
6x6: 1:09.91/1:20.12
7x7: 1:48.92/1:58.10
4BLD: 1:34.23
5BLD: 3:46.41
MBLD: 59/60 59:52

Are those just guesses based on current records, or did you calculate stuff? Those seem like mindbendingly reasonable figures.

 

[FastCubeMaster]

0.39 2x2 single is insane! Minimum 10.25 TPS with pickups and put downs

 

[sqAree]

I'll jump on this bandwagon and see how long these take to break...

3x3: 3.61/5.23
4x4: 18.63/22.84
5x5: 35.49/39.49
2x2: 0.39/1.12
3BLD: 15.50/18.67
OH: 5.75/8.52
FMC: 16/21.67
Feet: 15.26/22.43
Mega: 26.12/30.91
Pyra: 0.81/1.61
Sq-1: 4.67/6.99
Clock: 2.98/3.99
Skwb: 0.87/1.70
6x6: 1:09.91/1:20.12
7x7: 1:48.92/1:58.10
4BLD: 1:13.23
5BLD: 3:29.41
MBLD: 59/60 59:52

5x5 and Mega definitely don't look realistic (to an extent that those times might actually never be seen). Rest looks doable though.

 

[Daniel Lin]

Are those just guesses based on current records, or did you calculate stuff? Those seem like mindbendingly reasonable figures.

is that sarcasm or not? most of them I think are reasonable other than 5x5 and feet and 4x4

 

[turtwig]

Are those just guesses based on current records, or did you calculate stuff? Those seem like mindbendingly reasonable figures.

Haha, thanks. I just looked at current records, 2012 records (becuase it's a 4 year difference) and the UWRs and kind of guessed.

 

[One Wheel]

is that sarcasm or not? most of them I think are reasonable other than 5x5 and feet and 4x4

Not sarcasm. They are all mind bendingly amazing times, but I really think they're all possible.

 

[One Wheel]

0.39 2x2 single is insane! Minimum 10.25 TPS with pickups and put downs

I bet with the right 4-move solution magnets would be a big help. you could very possibly figure out how to drop the cube after only making 3 moves so the table makes the 4th move while you stop the timer.

 

[Ronxu]

I bet with the right 4-move solution magnets would be a big help. you could very possibly figure out how to drop the cube after only making 3 moves so the table makes the 4th move while you stop the timer.

That's not how magnets work though. You still have to make the last move.

 

[One Wheel]

That's not how magnets work though. You still have to make the last move.

If you drop a cube on its corner it will turn. magnets could make it do that in a more reliable manner.

 

[gateway cuber]

Are those just guesses based on current records, or did you calculate stuff? Those seem like mindbendingly reasonable figures.

i know right.

 

[gateway cuber]

I'm revising some of my predictions... (primarily those that have been surpassed) I am also going to predict who will be regarded (generally) as dominant in those events.

2x2: 0.4/1.29 Will Callan
3x3: 4.32/6.08 maybe sub 6? Feliks
4x4: 19.06/22.11 Feliks
5x5: 39.98/43.24 Feliks
6x6: 1:20.68/1:30.93 Feliks
7x7: 2:11.32/2:17.83 Feliks
mega: 29.88/31.56 Juan Pablo
bld: 16.65/19.38 Daniel Lin/Kaijun
multi: 49/50 in 58:53.48 Shivam Bansal
4bld: 1:39.93 Kaijun
5bld: 4:30.78 Kaijun
OH: 5.95/9.86 Feliks
squan: 5.03/8.02 Tommy dontfeellikespellinghislastname
feet: 17.96/20.38 Henri Gerber
Pyra: 0.84/1.79 Daniel Goodman/Drew Brads
skewb: 0.96/2.02 That polish dude
clock: 3.01/4.44 Evan Liu
Kilo: 15.63/18.94 Will Callan

but that's just me... I think these estimations push most of these events limits except big cubes and bigBLD