qqwref
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I've done a bit of math (which I'm bad at, so please, let me know if I'm wrong).
After COLL, the odds of getting an EPLL skip are 1/12. This means the chance of getting at least one EPLL skip in an average of 12 is 1-((11/12)^12), or roughly 65% (or 35% in an average of 5). The probability of getting EXACTLY one skip is ((1/12)*(9/12)^11)*12, or 4.2% (13% in an average of 5).
If I am correct, the probability of getting a skip that affects my average (2 or more skips in an average) is over 60% for an average of 12 or 22% in an average of 5.
The probability of exactly one skip should be ((1/12)*(11/12)^11)*12 = 38.4%, so the probability of a counting skip (assuming a solve with a skip is always faster than a solve without) is 26.4% for an avg12.