The blindfold race!

[cmhardw]

Half done! 212/250.

Mike, you're a machine! :tu

Wow, by that calculation, I should feel pretty secure in competition! (Of course, it's not really the same in competition, so I know it's not really that good.)

For me, I have this:
\( 1-\left(1-0.848\right)^3 \approx 99.65\% \)

And if I want to calculate my odds of a sub-2 in a competition round of 3 solves, it comes to this:
\( 1-\left(1-0.732\right)^3 \approx 98\% \)

Nice accuracy! I see what you mean about the competition aspect of it. You can also use this process in reverse to work out an estimate for your "in competition" accuracy. For example, I've DNF'd all 3 solves in a round of 3 once in 14 competitions.

So my "get at least one solve in a round of 3" accuracy rate in competition is 13/14 or about 93%

\( 1-\left(1-x\right)^3 = 0.93 \)

Solving for x I get approximately 59% accuracy rate for a single solve (x stands for my accuracy rate on one solve, in a 3 attempt round, in competition). Looking at all 14 rounds of my 3 attempt rounds my actual accuracy was: 27/42 or approximately 64%

So this way of estimating my accuracy in competition underestimates my accuracy, but it's still fairly close which is why I use this method to estimate my chances to get a solve in a round of 3 (or round of 2).

For you Mike, you've gotten at least one solve 24 out of 26 competition rounds where you had 3 attempts. Working backward from this your estimated single solve accuracy, when in a 3 attempt round, in competition, would be:
\( 1-\left(1-x\right)^3 = 0.923 \)

Solving for x, your individual solve accuracy rate during a 3 attempt round, you get about 57%

Your actual "single solve when competing in a round of 3 attempts" accuracy rate is: 46/84 or about 55%

So your estimated accuracy rate overestimates your actual competition accuracy rate (in a 3 attempt round), but it's still very close.

Obviously, I am too accuracy-focused.

Is that a bad thing though? Getting a successful solve in competition is better than getting a DNF.

May I just say this exercise is absolutely crazy? It's exhausting.

Yes I agree that it's exhausting, but a lot of fun!

 

[cmhardw]

Double post since my last post was directed mainly to Mike.

How long do we have for the 500 cube round for week 28? When exactly are our entries due? Please list a date and a time (and what time zone that time is for), as I know I'll probably be taking my attempts in this round right up to the last minute.

 

[Mike Hughey]

Thanks for saving me the effort with your calculations. I was thinking about doing exactly the same thing, but you've done it for me!

Your accuracy in competition is better than mine. But I would like to point out that my competition accuracy in the state of Indiana is 2/9, which just shows I can't solve in my home state in competition. And perhaps more significantly, my accuracy when I'm hosting the competition is 2/6. I found it very hard to concentrate when my own competition was going on around me. Also, with all the improvement that happens over time, there just aren't enough data points in competition to know how you're truly doing. I was using some very new tricks for parity at the Ohio Open, which probably accounts for my bad accuracy there. I have this horrible habit of incorporating new techniques right before a competition - stupid, but I can't seem to help myself.

 

[Mike Hughey]

Double post since my last post was directed mainly to Mike.

How long do we have for the 500 cube round for week 28? When exactly are our entries due? Please list a date and a time (and what time zone that time is for), as I know I'll probably be taking my attempts in this round right up to the last minute.

Double post since now I'm responding to Chris's double post.
I would assume we have until midnight Saturday night / Sunday morning. It was midnight a week before that when the original scrambles were posted, so that would make exactly a week. (I double-checked with my moderator powers to make sure that's the correct time.) And that was apparently Eastern Daylight Time. So that would translate to 4 AM GMT on July 17, if I am not miscalculating. (But please double-check - I may have that wrong.)

I must admit that I think I have no chance at all of getting all 500 done. It will be very hard for me to get to 400.

 

[EricReese]

I remember Ryan mentioning he was going to give a week, I told him no one would do that, and he would be better off with 200.

 

[Zane_C]

3BLD: 32/50

Spoiler

1.  43.99  
2.  1:22.80  
3.  1:00.36  
4.  47.55  
5.  1:06.18  
6.  58.41  
7.  DNF
8.  54.84  
9.  1:33.64  
10. 1:19.30  
11. 35.88  
12. 1:13.19  
13. DNF
14. 41.51  
15. 45.01  
16. 46.95  
17. 33.84
18. 53.96  
19. DNF 
20. DNF
21. 43.44  
22. 1:06.49  
23. DNF 
24. 59.07  
25. DNF
26. DNF
27. DNF
28. DNF
29. DNF
30. DNF
31. 53.67
32. DNF
33. 58.65
34. 56.41
35. DNF
36. DNF
37. 51.44
38. 1:31.24
39. 1:21.23
40. DNF
41. 1:15.33
42. 1:21.53
43. 44.45
44. 56.70+
45. 43.62
46. DNF
47. DNF
48. 1:54.32
49. DNF
50. 56.93

4BLD:
4:27.30, DNF, 5:43.04, DNS, DNS, DNS, DNS, DNS = 5:05.17
Comment: Don't have time to do the other 5 attempts. The 5:43 could've easily been close to the first solve if I hadn't repeatedly made memo errors with the centers.

5BLD:
DNF, DNF, DNF, 14:44.18 = 14:44.18
Comment: Terrible.

 

[Mike Hughey]

I'm quitting now, since it's officially been a week. My total was 297/353. I only regret that I couldn't have had a few more minutes before midnight to get 3 more successes so I could have had 300 successes. If only my Saturday hadn't been so busy...

 

[MatsBergsten]

I'm quitting now, since it's officially been a week. My total was 297/353. I only regret that I couldn't have had a few more minutes before midnight to get 3 more successes so I could have had 300 successes. If only my Saturday hadn't been so busy...

As always, very impressive . I think you have more solves and definitely more successes
than all of us others combined (Chris hasn't updated lately so I don't know fore sure).

And Ryan himself sits there laughing about what he made us old men do .
(His own post says 20 but it is not updated recently either).

 

[aronpm]

I only did like 60 solves, cbf writing them up.

 

[cmhardw]

I'm done too. Here is my final entry for this week.

Attempts made: 150
Accuracy: 110/150
Fastest solve: 56.75
Slowest solve: 2:51.96
Mean of 110: 1:29.63
Median of 110: 1:26.18
Standard Deviation: 19.56

#sub-2:00 solves: 104
#sub-1:30 solves: 65
#sub-1:20 solves: 39
#sub-1:10 solves: 15
#sub-1:00 solves: 1

Spoiler

All times in the format x:xx.xx (x:xx.xx, x:xx.xx) are where I timed my splits. This format is:
Total overall time (memorization time, solving time)

1:18.28 (35.10, 43.18)
DNF
DNF
1:45.48 (55.06, 50.42)
1:40.68 (46.92, 53.76)
1:24.76
1:09.57 (31.77, 37.80)
1:57.12 (42.97, 1:14.15)
DNF
1:32.43
DNF
1:46.97 (54.84, 52.13)
1:26.18 (35.49, 50.69)
DNF
2:01.71 (38.04, 1:23.67)
1:27.27 (35.84, 51.43)
1:14.41 (26.22, 48.19)
DNF
1:24.43 (46.21, 38.22)
1:16.16 (31.26, 44.90)
DNF
DNF
DNF
1:29.50 (40.52, 48.98)
DNF
1:46.38 (42.30, 1:04.08)
DNF
DNF
DNF
1:28.74
1:05.89
1:22.25
1:21.54
1:24.52
DNF
1:28.83
1:08.95
1:21.28
1:58.13
2:16.05
1:52.04
1:08.61
1:19.46
1:27.87
DNF
1:13.94
1:32.15
DNF
DNF
1:44.48
1:42.03
DNF
DNF
DNF
DNF
1:08.71
1:12.87
1:04.30
1:27.81
1:33.39
1:24.37
DNF
1:15.85
1:23.99
1:10.41
1:24.99
2:12.76
2:51.96
1:42.58
1:20.14
DNF
DNF
1:29.31
1:37.23
DNF
1:05.30
1:47.78
DNF
1:39.05
DNF
1:33.54
1:45.29
1:26.26
DNF
DNF
1:43.39
1:17.08
1:19.86
DNF
1:14.28
1:11.17
1:21.26
1:51.98
1:17.12
1:18.20
1:05.06
1:38.12
1:48.59
1:52.58
2:23.88
DNF
1:40.68
1:41.10
DNF
1:22.42
1:14.07
1:52.94
1:26.17
1:16.31
1:32.75
1:12.01
1:42.49
1:22.79
1:37.33
DNF
1:10.54
1:43.56
1:21.25
1:49.88
1:18.51
1:06.19
DNF
1:48.43
1:04.92
1:56.01
DNF
1:37.79
1:00.73
DNF
DNF
2:27.16
1:32.83
1:13.74
1:19.89
1:01.56
1:00.55
1:14.24
1:32.10
1:06.98
1:15.97
DNF
1:36.29
1:29.16
DNF
1:32.84
1:41.13
DNF
56.75
1:19.82
1:21.15

Very impressive, Mike! As usual, my hat is off sir!

Mats, you beat me I'm too tired to do any more solves, so you have bested me as well! My hat is off to you too sir! :tu

 

[RyanReese09]

And Ryan himself sits there laughing about what he made us old men do .

I lol'd IRL.

 

[MatsBergsten]

OK, back to a normal week. Format as before:

• 3x3BLD 20 solves: mean of five best.
• 4x4BLD 8 solves: mean of two best.
• 5x5BLD 4 solves: best solve.

Do as much or as little as you like. Time Monday-Sunday UTC.

Scrambles for week 29:

3BLD
1. B' R' B R U2 R' U2 R2 F' L2 U R' D2 L' D' L2 R' B' R2 U' F U B2 D2 R'
2. D2 U B' F' D' B' R B2 L' U' B' F R2 B' D2 U2 L' R B R F' L' D U F'
3. F2 D R2 B L2 R2 B' F' R2 D' U2 B D F D2 R' U' B' D B2 D U2 B' F D
4. F' D2 R' F L2 F D U L B U2 R2 D L' F U2 R B U B2 D' U2 B' R D2
5. L R' U2 R2 B' R' D L2 B' D' L' U' B2 L' D U' L2 R2 F R2 B D B2 R' D'
6. D' F2 U' F2 R D' F U' F' L R' F' R F2 L' R' F' U B R2 D' U' F L' U
7. B2 L R2 U2 L' D2 B R' F2 D' U2 L' R' B' D' F2 D' L2 R2 D2 L' D' L U2 L'
8. L' R2 D' L U2 B2 F U R D' U R D2 L2 F' U' L' R' F U' B2 R' U' L R'
9. R2 B' F R2 D2 U2 R D' U' R' B2 F L2 R U R' D' L2 B2 U2 B2 F2 U' B R'
10. L' R' F2 R' F' R B2 R2 D' R2 B' L2 R B' F' D2 L2 B' L' B' F R2 U' B R'
11. L2 B' F2 D' F' R' D2 L U' F' U' L' B F2 D2 L R2 B' L' B2 D2 R F U B2
12. D2 B' F' R F2 L2 B L D F2 U2 B F' L2 F D R B' F' U2 R' D' U' L R2
13. F D2 R2 B R D2 R2 B2 R B2 D2 L R2 U' F D2 L R2 D' B2 R2 U2 R' D U2
14. U2 B' F2 L D U2 B' F2 L' R D2 B2 U2 B2 D2 R D2 F2 L2 B D' F' L U F
15. L B' F L' R' D U' F2 R D B' F U' L R B2 U' R B' F U2 L B2 D F
16. U F L2 B' R F D L R' B' F' D R B2 F2 L' D' L' D' L' R D2 R' B F'
17. L2 R D F' R' D2 U' L B2 D2 L' F2 D2 L U2 B L R U2 B2 F' R' B' F R'
18. B2 F2 D' U L2 D U2 L B D' B' R2 B2 L D U' R2 B2 D L F' U' L2 R2 F2
19. R2 B L' R2 D2 U2 R' D' L U2 B' F' D' B2 D U B F2 D U L2 B' D U2 B2
20. D2 U2 L B F U2 B F2 L R U' L' R' F D U' B2 D2 L' R2 F L R U B2

4BLD
1. U B' U2 B Fw2 Rw2 B2 L2 Uw2 Fw' D' B F2 U' Rw2 R2 Fw2 U B2 Fw F R Uw Fw2 Uw B2 Rw Uw' L D' B' Rw B D2 B Fw2 F2 D Uw' Fw2
2. D' L' B' Rw U2 Rw Uw' Fw D' Rw' R' Fw' Uw' L' F L2 B' Fw2 L2 Rw F L' Rw2 R' Fw Uw L2 Rw Fw F' D' B2 Uw' R2 U Fw2 Rw' D2 Fw' D
3. L F R' D' Uw2 L B2 L2 U Rw2 F2 L2 R' D R2 B Rw2 Uw' Rw' Uw' U2 B2 Fw L2 D F2 L2 Uw' L R2 D2 F L' Rw' R' Fw L2 R' B' F'
4. R2 U2 L2 R' Uw L' U2 F Uw' Rw' U2 B' L2 R2 U B' D B Fw F Rw2 F2 Uw' F' D2 F' L Rw B' Fw2 F2 Rw2 Uw U2 Rw2 Uw2 Fw2 Rw Uw Fw2
5. Uw2 B2 Rw Fw2 Rw D B Uw2 U R F2 L2 Uw' Fw R' Uw2 B2 D U2 B R2 Uw R B2 D Uw R' F' L Fw' F2 L2 Uw Fw' Rw B' F2 D2 Fw2 Rw2
6. Uw2 U Rw R B F2 L2 R2 B' R' F Rw Fw' F U2 Rw' Fw' L U' Fw2 L R' B' L' Fw D2 Uw2 R2 D' Uw2 L' Rw2 Fw2 L' Rw' R' D L Rw' D2
7. L2 Fw2 Rw' R' Fw U' R' D2 L D' U2 B' R' Uw' Rw' D F D' Fw2 F2 Rw2 F Uw' Rw' Fw2 F L2 Uw R2 F2 Uw' U' B Fw Uw2 F' L Fw2 L Uw'
8. Rw2 Uw2 U2 L Rw2 R D Rw' D2 Rw D' B F2 R Uw2 F' Rw R' D2 U' Fw Uw2 B R Fw2 U' L Rw' R B2 D2 Uw' U' Fw2 D' F L B' Fw' Uw2

5BLD
1. Fw Lw' R2 Fw2 Lw Bw Lw2 Bw Uw U L Lw2 Fw F2 L' Fw2 U B Uw2 U' R' Dw L U Fw2 Rw' Fw' Lw2 Bw' Uw L' Lw' R' F' D' Dw2 Uw' U2 R F L2 R' B2 Fw Dw2 Fw F Lw2 Rw' Dw B2 Bw' Fw2 L' Lw2 U Lw' Rw D' Dw
2. Fw2 F2 L2 Bw2 L2 Uw2 Fw' L2 U' B Bw F' L2 R' Dw2 Uw2 B2 D' R' Fw' D' Rw Uw Bw' R B2 Rw' Dw' L2 Rw D Lw2 Bw R' U' R' B2 Fw F Rw' B' Rw2 R Dw2 L2 Uw R Fw' R B2 Uw' L' R2 D L' Rw D2 B L U'
3. L2 B' Bw' D U2 B2 Uw2 Fw' D U B Dw Fw' Rw2 Fw Lw' Rw Bw L Fw2 L B' Dw' L' D Lw2 Bw Fw2 Uw L' Lw R' Dw U' Rw2 Dw' U Lw' B' Fw' D Dw U R' D L Lw' Dw Fw Dw2 B' Bw' Fw F2 Uw B' L' Rw D' Uw2
4. L' D Dw Fw2 F' Dw' L U Lw' Dw2 Uw Fw Dw' L' Bw L Uw U2 L2 Rw' D' Lw' Fw2 L F' R F Lw' Dw Rw' U Rw2 R2 B2 L' D2 Rw' D' Dw2 Rw' Fw2 F' U' Lw Bw2 Dw Rw' R' Uw' F' D2 Uw' U' R' Fw' L2 Lw' Uw' B' L2

 

[Tim Major]

If I do 4BLD, is the rough time ok? (looking at stackmat timer's time and start and finish)
I don't have a watch, and no clock in my house have the second hand.
So can I enter with eg: 44 minutes, where I'm unsure if it was 44:00, or 44:59? I doubt I'll beat anyone, just to keep track.

 

[MatsBergsten]

If I do 4BLD, is the rough time ok? (looking at stackmat timer's time and start and finish)
I don't have a watch, and no clock in my house have the second hand.
So can I enter with eg: 44 minutes, where I'm unsure if it was 44:00, or 44:59? I doubt I'll beat anyone, just to keep track.

Yeah, for times in that region it's ok. And it is not the world championship either . It's mainly for your own fun (and practice).

Edit: on the other hand why?? There's lots of timers on the net or on your computer. I use qqtimer e.g.
But if you want to do outdoor cubing without a laptop it's still ok .

 

[Zane_C]

3BLD: 39.44, 40.05, 43.46, 46.41, 49.19 = 43.71
Solved: 9/10
1:02.49, 1:18.63, 46.41, DNF, DNF, DNF, 50.43, DNF, DNF, DNF, DNF, 43.46, 40.05, 58.50, 49.19, 39.44, DNF, DNF, DNF, DNF
Comment: Too many DNFs.

4BLD:
7:18.02, DNF, DNF, 4:16.43, 6:06.11, 4:39.11, DNF, DNF = 4:27.77
Comment: 3 successes in a row is nice, even though they weren't in the one sitting. 4:16 is a pb.

5BLD:
DNF, 12:50.55, DNF = 12:50.55
Comment: I've left the 4th attempt blank because I'm not sure if I've attempted the scramble.

 

[porkynator]

I decided to join the race...
I'm racing for sub-1 with 3BLD, and I'm still trying to get my first 4BLD success

DNF, 1:22.17, DNF, 1:30.57, DNF, 1:23.67, DNF, 1:21.15, DNF, DNF, 1:12.40, 2:12.46, DNF, DNF, 1:28.47, DNF, 1:14.14, 1:18.06, 1:16.36, DNF = 1:16.42 Mean of 5 best solves

So slow and so many DNFs... Well, at least I'm sure I will improve next week
I'll try 4BLD later, or maybe tomorrow

 

[Jakube]

3BLD: 1:29.23
1:23.65, 1:53.71, 1:50.52, 1:44.16, 1:40.99, 2:11.03, DNF(1:29.82)[3 corners], 1:52.18, 1:48.61, 1:45.49, 1:27.02, 1:44.94, 1:47.10, 1:41.50, DNF(1:46.21), 1:25.54, 1:33.28, 1:36.64, 1:39.14, 1:45.29+
Current Avg12: 1:40.90
4BLD: DNF
DNF(22:07.29), DNF(15:26.84)
After I got a 7:43.33 (it´s PB for me) in the competition last weekend (Czech Open 2011), but only got 5th place, I finally gave up U2, r2 and old Pochmann. I´m starting parcticing BH and commutators to improve my times. So my times are slow now, but hopefully will be much better.

 

[cmhardw]

Results from week 28:

3x3BLD (Most attempts out of 500):
1. Mike Hughey: 353
2. MatsBergsten: 151
3. cmhardw: 150
4. aronpm: 60
5. Zane_C: 50
6. insane569: 28
7. RyanReese: 22

4x4BLD (mean of 2 best attempts):
1. Zane_C: 5:05.17
2. Mike Hughey: 7:05.11
3. MatsBergsten: 7:06.27

5x5BLD (best of 4 attempts):
1. Mike Hughey: 13:53.51
2. Zane_C: 14:44.18
3. MatsBergsten: 16:23

 

[MatsBergsten]

3x3BLD: 1:56.89 only managed 5/20, horrid!

Spoiler

time memo errors
02:19.52 62 3
01:42.67 45 1
02:57.27 42 1
02:11.72 70 0
02:42.59 44 3
01:56.93 47 0
01:34.63 23 1
02:08.83 37 1
01:41.98 40 2
01:59.22 27 0
01:18.37 26 2
02:21.25 30 1
02:05.25 42 1
01:38.12 39 0
01:51.22 42 1
01:58.46 46 0
01:55.35 62 2
01:44.11 38 1
03:21.00 30 2
02:26.87 40 1

4x4BLD: 8:13.70, DNF , DNF , 7:23.71, DNF, DNF, DNF, 6:31.25 = 6:57.47

5x5BLD: 15:46 [ 8:58], DNF [18:46, 11:24], DNF [17:27, 9:50], DNS = 15:46

Thanks Chris for last weeks result. I intended to do it this morning
only to find that you already had.

 

[Mike Hughey]

3x3x3 BLD: 1:17.17
Accuracy: 17/20
Best single: 1:13.86
Best average 3/5: 1:18.25
Best average 10/12: 1:34.48
DNF [1:22.06, 3C], 1:52.75, 1:34.71, 1:27.78, 1:26.74, 1:23.97, 1:17.21, 1:39.11, 1:33.55, DNF [1:58.75, 5C 4E], 1:20.38, 1:30.70, 1:55.13, DNF [1:32.00, 3E], 1:16.95, 1:13.86, 1:17.47, 1:20.34, 1:26.76, 1:33.77

Comment: Ugh - porkynator beat me by less than a second. Funny how four of my five fastest were consecutive.

4x4x4 BLD: 7:07.48
DNF [7:05.69, 3:16], 7:35.80 [3:51], DNF [7:28.75, 3:42], DNF [7:38.68, 3:38], 9:53.72 [5:25], DNF [9:03.39, 2:47], 6:39.16 [3:19], 7:48.18 [4:07]

Comment: First one off by 2 centers, third one off by 3 centers, fourth one off by 7 centers, sixth one off by 3 wings. The sixth one was extremely fast memo for me, but I forgot the last location and then messed it up when I had to undo part of it.

5x5x5 BLD: 12:40.49
DNF [19:44.90, 11:42], DNF [16:48.46, 9:44], 12:40.49 [6:42], 14:21.40 [7:39]

Comment: I did the first one too late at night; off by 3 + centers. The second one was off by 3 corners and 5 wings. The third one was one of my best ever.

@Jakube: It's crazy that you can get 7:43.33 at 4x4x4 BLD and get 5th place, and not even at World Championships! That was one deep field for 4x4x4 BLD.