Of course, keep in mind that Chris did that many years ago, when no one had developed these nice systems that we're able to just steal and use now, so Chris's perspective is rather warped on this. He thinks I'm improving fast, to let you know how warped it is.
However, Jason, you will be VERY surprised how fast you can improve at this. Once you get good at doing the commutators sighted, your speedsolving ability will kick in, and I'm sure you will be as fast as I am within weeks or even days. At least, that's what everyone else on here has done. And you're a faster cuber than most of them.
My first attempt at a 4x4x4 BLD was 88 minutes, and my first successful one was 63:42.73. So I would also consider an hour a normal first time. But if you miss a few of them before you get one right, I'm guessing you could easily get down to 30 minutes by the time you get your first one.
I suspect that by the time you have a chance to try this in a competition, you won't be satisfied with any less than 15 minutes. I think 20 minutes will be quite easy for you, as long as you get lucky and get one right. Even I'm averaging well below 20 minutes now.
By the way, how fast are you these days at 3x3x3 BLD? (Your most recent time on speedcubing.com is 2:30, but it's over 2 years old!)