kcl
Legend
Nope. Just from experience with the event, (I average low 4) 3.15 will take some seriously easy scrambles and a good solver to beat.
Safe/unsafe WRs
- Thread starter ryanj92
- Start date
Nope. Just from experience with the event, (I average low 4) 3.15 will take some seriously easy scrambles and a good solver to beat.
kunparekh18
Veteran
Square-1 average is quite safe.
MTGjumper
Veteran
I think square-1 single is quite safe. I did 1300 solves prior to Euros, and had 4 sub-WR singles, one of which was a lolscramble.
Sajwo
Veteran
Safe:
- 3x3 average
- Megaminx single
- Pyraminx single
- Square-1 average
- Square-1 single
- Skewb average
- 3x3 MBLD
Unsafe:
- 2x2 single
- 2x2 average
- 3BLD single
- 3BLD average
- 3x3 WF average
- Pyraminx average
- Clock average
- Clock single
- Skewb single
- 7x7 average
- 4BLD
- 5BLD
- 3x3 average
- Megaminx single
- Pyraminx single
- Square-1 average
- Square-1 single
- Skewb average
- 3x3 MBLD
Unsafe:
- 2x2 single
- 2x2 average
- 3BLD single
- 3BLD average
- 3x3 WF average
- Pyraminx average
- Clock average
- Clock single
- Skewb single
- 7x7 average
- 4BLD
- 5BLD
TMOY
Veteran
Depends on how you define "safe". From the OP:
With that definition, square-1 single WR is definitely not safe. Even I could break it with a lolscramble.
Sajwo
Veteran
lolscrambles are unlikely
Dene
Premium Member
Safest are obvious:
2x2 single, clock single, and FMC
Least safe? Very difficult to say... Perhaps both megaminx and 5x5 singles and averages.
2x2 single, clock single, and FMC
Least safe? Very difficult to say... Perhaps both megaminx and 5x5 singles and averages.
ryanj92
Veteran
Thanks for your responses, everyone 
I think when I thought about this the first time, I didn't consider luck as a factor so much, as every competitor has the same chance of getting a lolscramble in a competition (well, obviously overall it depends on how many solves each person does in comp but on a solve by solve basis at least). So I would call things like 2x2x2 single and 3x3x3 single at least a little unsafe, as even though the probability of them being beaten on any given scramble is quite small, there are many people who on an easy scramble (eg another 4 mover on 2x2x2) could beat the WR. Maybe I'm thinking about it in the wrong way, I don't know
I guess an exercise would be to think about each WR, and think 'if this WR was broken, would i be able to guess who broke it?' if the answer is yes, that event is probably quite safe because there are not many people who could break it, and vice versa.
I think when I thought about this the first time, I didn't consider luck as a factor so much, as every competitor has the same chance of getting a lolscramble in a competition (well, obviously overall it depends on how many solves each person does in comp but on a solve by solve basis at least). So I would call things like 2x2x2 single and 3x3x3 single at least a little unsafe, as even though the probability of them being beaten on any given scramble is quite small, there are many people who on an easy scramble (eg another 4 mover on 2x2x2) could beat the WR. Maybe I'm thinking about it in the wrong way, I don't know
I guess an exercise would be to think about each WR, and think 'if this WR was broken, would i be able to guess who broke it?' if the answer is yes, that event is probably quite safe because there are not many people who could break it, and vice versa.
Berd
Legend
I think the hardest WR to be is going to be MBLD. You just have to look in the video description on Maskows memo / exo per cube. Its insane...
CiaranBeahan
Veteran
I see a lot of people say this, but honestly I don't agree. There's a possibility that it will never be broken, but there's also the possibility that it will be broken this weekend.
Look at this year for example, there's been 5 sub 1's, 3 of which were sub .9, 1 of which was sub .8 . Rami also got .85 just +2. Ben Whitmore came .06 within breaking the 2x2 single.
What I'm trying to say is that don't be fooled because it's the longest standing WR, it can still be broken any second!
Safest:
SQ-1 single
3x3 average
Skewb average
Multi Bld
Unsafe:
Pyra average
6x6 single & average
3x3 single
7x7 single & average
LucidCuber
Veteran
This firstly, few people have really practised it, so there is a lot of undiscovered talent out there. Also simply by the fact that it is so new. I'm sure eventually we will get an average with 3/4 extremely lucky scrambles.
MTGjumper
Veteran
Except since the move to random state, lolscrambles are much more unlikely. I had a 4.xx lolscramble in 1200 solves, but that was the only one, and it was significantly less easy than lolscrambles used to be (my solution was 11 twists, which turned out to be optimal).
kinch2002
Premium Member
I predict sub-2 average by end of 2016. With several easy scrambles and a fast solver of course
People will be 1-looking a ton of 'normal' scrambles by then
MirzaCubing
Veteran
Safe:
5x5 single and average
4x4 single
Skewb average
Pyraminx single
3x3 average
6x6 single
MBLD
Unsafe:
3x3 single
2x2 average
3BLD average
Pyraminx average
6x6 average
7x7 average
4BLD
5BLD
5x5 single and average
4x4 single
Skewb average
Pyraminx single
3x3 average
6x6 single
MBLD
Unsafe:
3x3 single
2x2 average
3BLD average
Pyraminx average
6x6 average
7x7 average
4BLD
5BLD
antoineccantin
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I'm actually surprised that nobody even mentioned OH WR average yet. Is it in the middle?
Ninja Storm
Veteran
ain't nobody breaking that
henrysavich
Veteran
From Least to Most Safe
Skewb Single - If I've broken it at home, there is no way it will last past 2014
Pyra Average - Drew is good enough to break it, he just needs a few more oppurtunities
Feet Average - Camphana is still consistently improving, so we will see him break the average again
4BLD - Ollie
5BLD - See above
2x2 Average - Chris Olson is easily fast enough, Lucas or Rami could as well
2x2 Single - A lot of people are saying this is safe, but there has been scrambles since trentin 2011 that have potential, people just weren't there
7x7 Single - There are so many people who could possibly break this,- Lin, Feliks, Bence, Kevin
3BLD Single - Someone is going to smash the record with a sub 20
6x6 Average - Kevin can break it, probably pretty easily
3x3 Single - Feliks is overdue for this one
Mega Single - Simon or Yu Da-Hyun
FMC Average - I forsee a high 24 in the near future
Clock Average - I don't know much about clock, but it looks like Evan Liu could surpass it still
Pyraminx single - 1.3 is hard to beat without a really lucky scramble, and a fast solver
7x7 Average - same as single, but slightly harder
5x5 Single - Feliks, again, could do it
3x3 Average - It is extremely safe from being broken by anyone but Feliks, but Feliks has a good chance
OH Single - Cantin or Pleskowicz could break this if they had a lucky scramble
3BLD Mean - Just because of how uncommon means are, if Maskow did a safe mean just for the WR, he possibly could
OH Average - Most likely Pleskowicz, but it may take a while
Clok Single - Again, I don't much about clock, so this is a rough estimate
6x6 Single - I don't know how common sub 1:40's are for Kevin, I'm estimating 1 in 20 maybe?
4x4 Average - I think only Sebastian could beat it at this point, and that would still require some luck
5x5 Average - Feliks is the only contender, and I think it will take a while for him to beat it
MBLD - Maskow may,I think 41/41 is really good for him
Sq1 Single - Bingliang could, square 1 solves have the potential to be very lucky
Feet Single - maybe I'm underestimating Gabriel, but 25 single for a 30 avg seems fairly lucky
4x4 Single - It would require a lot of luck, and either Feliks or Sebastian, maybe KC3
FMC Single - Just because 19 is so much harder than 20
Mega Average - I'm still wondering how Louis got the current one
Sq1 average - Only Bingliang, and that still requires some luck
Skewb average - So much luck in the current one, I think it will last at least to mid 2015, probably longer
Skewb Single - If I've broken it at home, there is no way it will last past 2014
Pyra Average - Drew is good enough to break it, he just needs a few more oppurtunities
Feet Average - Camphana is still consistently improving, so we will see him break the average again
4BLD - Ollie
5BLD - See above
2x2 Average - Chris Olson is easily fast enough, Lucas or Rami could as well
2x2 Single - A lot of people are saying this is safe, but there has been scrambles since trentin 2011 that have potential, people just weren't there
7x7 Single - There are so many people who could possibly break this,- Lin, Feliks, Bence, Kevin
3BLD Single - Someone is going to smash the record with a sub 20
6x6 Average - Kevin can break it, probably pretty easily
3x3 Single - Feliks is overdue for this one
Mega Single - Simon or Yu Da-Hyun
FMC Average - I forsee a high 24 in the near future
Clock Average - I don't know much about clock, but it looks like Evan Liu could surpass it still
Pyraminx single - 1.3 is hard to beat without a really lucky scramble, and a fast solver
7x7 Average - same as single, but slightly harder
5x5 Single - Feliks, again, could do it
3x3 Average - It is extremely safe from being broken by anyone but Feliks, but Feliks has a good chance
OH Single - Cantin or Pleskowicz could break this if they had a lucky scramble
3BLD Mean - Just because of how uncommon means are, if Maskow did a safe mean just for the WR, he possibly could
OH Average - Most likely Pleskowicz, but it may take a while
Clok Single - Again, I don't much about clock, so this is a rough estimate
6x6 Single - I don't know how common sub 1:40's are for Kevin, I'm estimating 1 in 20 maybe?
4x4 Average - I think only Sebastian could beat it at this point, and that would still require some luck
5x5 Average - Feliks is the only contender, and I think it will take a while for him to beat it
MBLD - Maskow may,I think 41/41 is really good for him
Sq1 Single - Bingliang could, square 1 solves have the potential to be very lucky
Feet Single - maybe I'm underestimating Gabriel, but 25 single for a 30 avg seems fairly lucky
4x4 Single - It would require a lot of luck, and either Feliks or Sebastian, maybe KC3
FMC Single - Just because 19 is so much harder than 20
Mega Average - I'm still wondering how Louis got the current one
Sq1 average - Only Bingliang, and that still requires some luck
Skewb average - So much luck in the current one, I think it will last at least to mid 2015, probably longer
Stefan
Legend
Magic is safest.
IRNjuggle28
Veteran
I wouldn't have thought that. Kaleta isn't the best in the world at it, and an 11 second AO5 isn't that amazing. The next 14 results are all sub 13 and none of those 14 results are Przemyslaw. Antoine and Michal and Feliks could all break that.
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Sajwo
Veteran
Przemysław can break it as well, but with bigger propability. He's averaging at home ~12. Have you seen Antoine's results on Facebook? He's barely sub14. Michał won't get WR average (I would say that he's more capable of WR single, he's getting 8s quite often). Don't know how fast is Feliks at home :rolleyes:
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