Safe/unsafe WRs

[ryanj92]

I had a thought earlier, and I thought I'd share it because I thought it would make for some good discussion...

If we define a 'safe' WR as one which very few people are likely to beat, how many of the current WRs do you think are safe, and which do you think is the most/least safe?

Personally, I think MBLD is the safest WR right now.

 

[Bob]

I think FMC single is the safest. It will be really damn hard to beat 20 moves.

 

[CyanSandwich]

Safe: MBLD, FMC (single)

Unsafe: 5BLD, 4BLD

 

[AvGalen]

Other people have come close to 20 (21)
Nobody is close to Feliks on 555 avg, but he keeps breaking it himself. Does that mean it is safe or not?
If that is considered safe I think the 6.54 333 avg is the safest. Nobody else got close.
2x2x2 single is also mostly impossible to beat
3multiblind has been completely perfected by Marcin. He dominated but not only did he start to do more and quicker, he also got more accurate

 

[Tim Major]

Safe: Skewb average, 3x3 average, multi
Unsafe: 2x2 average, 4bld, 5bld, OH single

 

[Cale S]

I agree with FMC and multi BLD being safe, as well as 2x2 single, 4x4 single, skewb average, square-1 single, and megaminx single.
WRs I think are unsafe are pyraminx average (because Drew) and 4BLD.

 

[goodatthis]

Yeah, I think it's going to take a long time before anyone but Maskow beats the MBLD WR.

If I could rank them, here would be my list

Safest:

MBLD
Skewb average
5x5 single
6x6 single
Megaminx single
3x3 average

Unsafe:
5BLD (mainly because Ollie is wicked fast at home)
4BLD (same as above)
2x2 average
3BLD mean

Also, I do think that FMC single is beatable, anyone can get lucky. Unless you're unlucky enough to get a distance-20 position for your scramble (which is pretty unlikely), there is a sub 20 solution for every scramble.

 

[Lucas Garron]

One thing I've learned from 8 years of cubing is that it is surprisingly hard to predict what's "safe" and what the "limits" for something are.

You can make some sensible observations, but I wouldn't bet on anything.

I do find it surprising is that Feliks is consistently so good at many things. After Matyas Kuti, I expected that every event will require a lot of specialization, and that the tops of the rankings would usually be close. (Sure, the WR would jump every now and then, but the top 10 times would mostly just inch down.) Erik's "basic speed" theory has proven more relevant instead.

 

[Bob]

Skewb safe? Really? I think the event is too new and will be broken again relatively soon...

 

[goodatthis]

Skewb safe? Really? I think the event is too new and will be broken again relatively soon...

3.15 is pretty tough, I think it's going to be lolscrambles from here on out if that's to be broken. I'm pretty sure that it hasn't been entered into the WCA database yet though, so if you're thinking about the 4.5x, I agree with you on that.

 

[Robert-Y]

I agree with FMC and multi BLD being safe, as well as 2x2 single, 4x4 single, skewb average, square-1 single, and megaminx single.
WRs I think are unsafe are pyraminx average (because Drew) and 4BLD.

Yes I agree with most of these. Square-1 in particular. I think on most scrambles, even if you rehearse your solution enough, you probably couldn't get sub 7.
Same goes to 2x2x2 single.

 

[DeeDubb]

I agree with FMC and multi BLD being safe, as well as 2x2 single, 4x4 single, skewb average, square-1 single, and megaminx single.
WRs I think are unsafe are pyraminx average (because Drew) and 4BLD.

Megaminx Single - If Yu Da Hyun gets a chance, she could break it.

As for safe records, do we define "safe" as safely set at their current score, or safe from someone other than the current holder to take it? Because Maskow is the only one who can beat his MBLD, and Feliks seems to be the only one who can take 3x3 average.

 

[blade740]

Yes I agree with most of these. Square-1 in particular. I think on most scrambles, even if you rehearse your solution enough, you probably couldn't get sub 7.
Same goes to 2x2x2 single.

Square-1 single is not safe. Look at 2nd place.

 

[cubingallday]

3x3 should be broken soon (Mats or Feliks..)
Felik's has already got close...corner twist

 

[Tom606060]

Square-1 single is not safe. Look at 2nd place.

Look at the average of the guy in second place.

 

[SolveThatCube]

2x2 WR single needs to go!

 

[Robert-Y]

Look at the average of the guy in second place.

No, I think he is right. But what point are you trying to make anyway?

 

[Coolster01]

2x2 average, pyra average, and skewb single can be beaten pretty easily with abit of luck.

4x4 is safe. xD

 

[rybaby]

3x3 should be broken soon (Mats or Feliks..)
Felik's has already got close...corner twist

I think quite a few people have potential to break 3x3x3 single. Considering single times can depend a lot on luck, if a sub 9 cuber gets a good F2L then some skip the solve could be a 5. Feliks is probably most likely to break it, but imo Alex and Bill, too.

 

[goodatthis]

Yeah, with an LL skip a lot of people are in contention for a 3x3 single WR.