Probability Thread

[Hssandwich]

What a are the odds of an under 3 moves last layer for beginner's method on 15 puzzle? I got one earlier

 

[TDM]

What a are the odds of an under 3 moves last layer for beginner's method on 15 puzzle? I got one earlier

What's the beginner's method?

 

[Berd]

What's the beginner's method?

Bens tutorial maybe? [emoji136]

 

[TDM]

Bens tutorial maybe? [emoji136]

Ok, but

What a are the odds of an under 3 moves last layer for beginner's method on 15 puzzle? I got one earlier

What's the 'last layer'?

 

[Berd]

Ok, but

What's the 'last layer'?

Last 2 layers [emoji136]

 

[Hssandwich]

Yeah, sorry, should have been clearer.

 

[TDM]

Yeah, sorry, should have been clearer.

Ok, here's how I would see it, but I could be wrong:
There are 8!/2 = 20160 cases for the last two layers.
Using the beginner's method, your blank can be either were 11 or 12 goes. This means there are four <=3 move ways to solve from there (moving the blank):
D
RD
DR
LDR
4/20160= 1/5040

 

[Leo123]

What's the beginner's method?

The Dan Brown tutorial probably is.

 

[GuRoux]

The Dan Brown tutorial probably is.

i think he is talking about 15 puzzle beginner's method.

 

[Hssandwich]

I'm a 15 puzzle nub, I average sub 20 on an app on my ipad

 

[TDM]

I'm a 15 puzzle nub, I average sub 20 on an app on my ipad

It's hard to be fast on a touchscreen. Download ben's sim on a computer; it's much easier to use keyboard.
(use two hands; don't do what I did and use OH for half a year, because switching is hard)

 

[Leo123]

i think he is talking about 15 puzzle beginner's method.

Oh!

 

[PixelWizard]

How high is the possibility that you can use Winter Variation?

 

[guysensei1]

How high is the possibility that you can use Winter Variation?

pretty sure that the probability of a solved EO (so you can use WV) is 1/8 (I may be horribly wrong)

 

[Bindedsa]

pretty sure that the probability of a solved EO (so you can use WV) is 1/8 (I may be horribly wrong)

Should be halved, unless you always force a made pair.

 

[guysensei1]

Should be halved, unless you always force a made pair.

Well it's not too hard to use R U' R' to get a solved pair. I guess. (Maybe we should account for last slot skips too but idk how?)

Also it depends on how you solve your F2L pairs. Maybe all of your F2L solutions don't end with a connected pair.

 

[Antonie faz fan]

How high is the possibility that you can use Winter Variation?

100% ( uf you use edge control, wich is like very easy).

 

[guysensei1]

100% ( uf you use edge control, wich is like very easy).

if you go through all that effort just to use WV you may as well do OLL/PLL right?

 

[Antonie faz fan]

if you go through all that effort just to use WV you may as well do OLL/PLL right?

maybe, but he didn't ask what was more efficient to do though :3

 

[PixelWizard]

if you go through all that effort just to use WV you may as well do OLL/PLL right?

If I understood right, then you get a oll skip everytime you use WV, so I planned to learn it and use it as much as possible... WV seems to drop the times a lot...

I average about 16-17 seconds. Before learning WV I have to learn OLL completely (around 5 to go).