For only one setup move, my calculations indicate that square-square (as a given) plus 15 other shapes are required to reach any of the 90 shapes.
First, I note that no shape can cover any 2 the following shapes:
cccccc-cceeeeeeee
cccccc-ceeeeeeece
cccccee-ceeceecee
ccccece-ceeceecee
cccceeee-cececece
ccceecee-cceeecce
cceeecce-cceeecce
cceeecce-cceeccee
cceeecce-cececece
cceecece-cececece
ccececee-cececece
cceceece-cececece
Thus, at least 12 shapes are needed to cover the above 12. A brute force search was done to cover all of the above shapes using 12 shapes, plus using square-square and any other 2 shapes to try to cover the rest of the shapes. However, this found that only up to 89 shapes could be covered this way. Thus, square-square (as a given) plus 15 other shapes can allow reaching all shapes with at most one setup move, and no smaller set will work.
One of many possibilities (that has relatively large probability of not requiring a setup move) is this set of shapes:
cececece-cececece (square-square)
cccccee-cceeeeece
cccccee-cceeeecee
cccccee-cceeceeee
ccccece-ccceeeeee
ccccece-ceeeecece
cccecce-ccceeeeee
cccceeee-cceeecce
cccceeee-cceceece
ccceecee-cceeccee
ccceecee-cceecece
cceeecce-cceeecce
cceecece-cceceece
cceecece-ccececee
cceceece-ccececee
cceceece-cececece
(The above is the best set that I found but the search was not exhaustive, so it's possible there could be a sufficient set that has a better probability of not requiring a setup move.)
The (up to) two setup move case turned out to be easier.
For two-move setups, I found that 89 shapes (everything except square-square) can be covered from only 4 shapes. So square-square or anything that covers square-square can be the 5th shape to cover all.
To cover 89 out of 90 shapes from only 4, my search indicates those four must be:
(1)
ccccece-ceeeecece
(2)
cccceeee-cccceeee
(3)
ccccece-cceeeecee
or
ccccece-cceeceeee
(4)
one of the following five:
ccceecee-cceceece
ccceeece-ccececee
ccceceee-cceecece
cceecece-cceecece
ccececee-ccececee
But if square-square is a given shape, there are several other possibilities for covering all shapes with square-square and 4 others (since only 86 shapes must be covered by the other 4). The best of these is the following set:
cececece-cececece (square-square)
cccccee-cceeeecee
ccccece-cceeeecee
ccceecee-cceceece
ccceecee-ccececee
The above set (or its mirrored version) minimizes the number of shapes requiring two setup moves (41), and also minimizes the probabilistic average of setup moves (1.276).
This table gives how much is covered by zero-, one-, and two-move setups.
Code:
setup moves shapes percent chance
0 5 7.72%
1 44 56.99%
2 41 35.29%