Get to 3 min for 4x4 in one month realistic?

[shadowslice e]

You're probably right, the question is how much commitment you're willing to give it. 2,529 people have official 4x4 times under 1 minute out of 10,390 with official times, or about 24.3%. 8,575 have official averages under 2 minutes, or 82.5%. That gives me statistical hope for 2 minutes, but I'm pretty pessimistic about 1.

This is my first 100 Yau solves (that i put in my spreadsheet), if it uploads properly:

View attachment 6005

There's that. But think about how many of those people who don't have sub-1 times are merely just on their way to getting it or have got it at home and haven't been to a comp very recently.

Therefore, I would say that the percentage of people who get sub-1 is much higher than the number of people who currently have a sub-1.

 

[One Wheel]

I would say that the percentage of people who get sub-1 is much higher than the number of people who currently have a sub-1.

You make a reasonable point, but I suspect you're wrong.

First, I used averages rather than single times, which should reduce the influence of lucky solves.

Second, many competitions have cutoff times, which would artificially inflate the number of faster cubers (on a percentage basis)

Third, whereas 3x3 is (it seems) a more participatory event, there needs to be a higher level of commitment to do 4x4. People are more likely to compete if they believe they can do well. This will also artificially inflate the percentage of faster solvers with official times.

Finally, in all likelihood the number of people who can consistently solve sub-1 or sub-2 but had a bad day at the competition or haven't been to a competition in a while is probably not much more than the number of people who cannot consistently solve under those benchmarks, but happened to have a good day at the competition.

 

[shadowslice e]

You make a reasonable point, but I suspect you're wrong.

First, I used averages rather than single times, which should reduce the influence of lucky solves.

Second, many competitions have cutoff times, which would artificially inflate the number of faster cubers (on a percentage basis)

Third, whereas 3x3 is (it seems) a more participatory event, there needs to be a higher level of commitment to do 4x4. People are more likely to compete if they believe they can do well. This will also artificially inflate the percentage of faster solvers with official times.

Finally, in all likelihood the number of people who can consistently solve sub-1 or sub-2 but had a bad day at the competition or haven't been to a competition in a while is probably not much more than the number of people who cannot consistently solve under those benchmarks, but happened to have a good day at the competition.

I still don't think you're taking into account the number of people who did 4x4 as soon as they learned how and will only have done it for about a month beforehand and so could get much, much better in a short period of time- especially those who are 3 mins+, probably more. Plus the people who don't make cut-off will usually not be practising 4x4 as a main event- I know I was one of those people until pretty recently but I still don't practise it as frequently as, for example, Megaminx (in fact, very rarely I practise it).

Lastly, there are the people who don't even go to comps or at least don't compete in the events. One good example (though extreme I admit) is Nicholas Niang. or perhaps Ollie Frost who could likely do much better at MBLD even though he can't really be bothered to do much more half of the time.

 

[mark49152]

This thread gives a comparison between official times for different puzzles:-

https://www.speedsolving.com/forum/...-2x2x2-7x7x7&highlight=Relative+times+puzzles

Presumably the steeper slope for 3x3 vs 4x4 is because there are many who focus on 3x3 and don't care so much for bigger cubes (people towards the right of the graph). Then there may be a few (probably fewer) people who focus on 4x4 and up and don't care so much for 3x3 (left of graph).

Anyway, if you assume 4.5 represents approximately the ratio you'd see in someone equally committed to both puzzles, then you could say that reaching a time of N on 4x4 is about the same level as N/4.5 on 3x3. Or 3 minutes on 4x4 is roughly equivalent to 40 seconds on 3x3.

 

[One Wheel]

That looks like some good data, and it does seem to indicate that there is probably not a significant skew toward faster solvers in 4x4. I guess I just need to work harder. It feels like I'm better at 4x4 than at 3x3, but I do tend to average right around 40 seconds on 3x3 and 3 minutes on 4x4. Now I need to decide whether I should focus on improving those, or try to improve on my 6:00ish 5x5 or 9:00ish megaminx. On the one hand my megaminx is so bad it couldn't be that hard to get better, but on the other hand it's so bad it needs a lot of work to get to less than embarrassing.

 

[mark49152]

Well, 4x4 practice tends to improve 3x3 too, as it helps with lookahead, if you do a lot of it. I dont think the converse is true though. You could try doing 4x4 exclusively until you hit 2:15 and see if it magically gets your 3x3 sub-30.

 

[One Wheel]

Interesting thought. I might just do that.

This a little off topic, but people talk about being sub-30 or sub-20, or whatever. Is there any agreed-upon standard for what that means? I just did 20 3x3 solves, with a range of 33.51 seconds to 1:09.42. I've had averages of 5 as low as I think ~37.5 seconds, and my best single is 26.89. The best Ao5 in that 20 was 40.78 seconds, and at the end of those 20 it's 46.39. It's not just one bad solve throwing off the range, either. These are pretty typical times for 20 solves for me:
49.62
40.35
43.74
39.26
43.24
40.57
42.50
38.98
1:09.42
45.22
56.15
38.42
40.20
43.79
39.49
46.44
55.64
33.51
39.85
52.87

 

[mark49152]

people talk about being sub-30 or sub-20, or whatever. Is there any agreed-upon standard for what that means?

Not really. It's pretty meaningless. Occasionally there's a debate about it on here, but the very fact people like to debate it illustrates its meaninglessness. Better to just cite PBs.

 

[PurpleBanana]

Not really. It's pretty meaningless. Occasionally there's a debate about it on here, but the very fact people like to debate it illustrates its meaninglessness. Better to just cite PBs.

Some people have posited that a PB average of 100 is a good definition of a global average. We might as well define it that way to remove the vagueness of the term.

 

[mark49152]

Some people have posited that a PB average of 100 is a good definition of a global average. We might as well define it that way to remove the vagueness of the term.

And others disagree. Good luck getting that (or any other) definition universally adopted. In the meantime, you could just say "PB ao100" instead of "global average", just to be unambiguous.

 

[PurpleBanana]

And others disagree. Good luck getting that (or any other) definition universally adopted. In the meantime, you could just say "PB ao100" instead of "global average", just to be unambiguous.

In the meantime can everyone just admit that "global average" is a general estimate and not a statistic?

 

[mark49152]

In the meantime can everyone just admit that "global average" is a general estimate and not a statistic?

Yeah, that's the point, why did you try to define it then?

 

[PurpleBanana]

Yeah, that's the point, why did you try to define it then?

I realize that it is not anything specific at the moment, which is why I was trying to see if it could be made more tangible.

 

[Lykos]

Btw, I think I am going to make it. I still have 2 weeks and I am close to 3 minutes. If I get lucky, it can be 2:45, most solves are between 3:00 and 3:30.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

 

[One Wheel]

You could try doing 4x4 exclusively until you hit 2:15 and see if it magically gets your 3x3 sub-30.

It doesn't seem to be working that way. I've done close to 300 solves and gotten my best Ao12 for 4x4 down to 2:22.19 (Ao100 2:33.63), but I just did an Ao12 on 3x3 of 49.52. Still a ways to go, but they seem to be going opposite directions due to lack of 3x3 practice.

 

[nalralz]

I don't see why not! Just do an average of 5 every day or so and you will get there in no time!

 

[Lykos]

I made it btw. I broke my pb at the competition and got 2:31.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

 

[One Wheel]

Probably. On the other hand, I care more about 4x4 than 3x3, and if I keep on my current trajectory I'll probably get about 1:30 4x4 and 55 second 3x3, which would have to be close to a record ratio for one person at one competition.

 

[One Wheel]

And on the other hand, you're probably right that with not too much work I could shave ~15 seconds off my 3x3 time, and probably also gain the same 15 seconds on my 4x4 times, since at this point the 3x3 stage is the slowest part of 4x4 for me.