CLL probabilities

Novriil

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So I did 500 solves and wrote down what cases I got.. Here are the results:

Sune cases:

1. 21 times = 4.2%
6205117_orig.jpg

2. 13 times = 2.6%
1749727_orig.jpg

3. 7 times = 1.4%
8010263_orig.jpg

4. 17 times = 3.4%
618489_orig.jpg

5. 12 times = 2.4%
1061678_orig.jpg

6. 8 times = 1.6%
9357792_orig.jpg

Anti-Sune cases:

7. 20 times = 4%
3070532_orig.jpg

8. 10 times = 2%
288677_orig.jpg

9. 10 times = 2%
631299_orig.jpg

10. 9 times = 1.8%
6157671_orig.jpg

11. 7 times = 1.4%
7029659_orig.jpg

12. 24 times = 4.8%
1457840_orig.jpg


T cases:

13. 12 times = 2.4%
3761440_orig.jpg

14. 10 times = 2%
7314344_orig.jpg

15. 12 times = 2.4%
4699967_orig.jpg

16. 9 times = 1.8%
2987983_orig.jpg

17. 17 times = 3.4%
9878211_orig.jpg

18. 10 times = 2%
8796701_orig.jpg

L cases:

19. 12 times = 2.4%
9514823_orig.jpg

20. 11 times = 2.2%
5494588_orig.jpg

21. 10 times = 2%
1286252_orig.jpg

22. 11 times = 2.2%
3148519_orig.jpg

23. 12 times = 2.4%
9558407_orig.jpg

24. 10 times = 2%
7498686_orig.jpg

U cases:

25. 11 times = 2.2%
6987966_orig.jpg

26. 14 times = 2.8%
2014406_orig.jpg

27. 22 times = 4.4%
7966830_orig.jpg

28. 10 times = 2%
2487430_orig.jpg

29. 5 times = 1%
5213713_orig.jpg

30. 11 times = 2.2%
4046677_orig.jpg

Pi cases:

31. 15 times = 3%
1069012_orig.jpg

32. 9 times = 1.8%
2704544_orig.jpg

33. 9 times = 1.8%
4226112_orig.jpg

34. 16 times = 3.2%
7570878_orig.jpg

35. 7 times = 1.4%
157968_orig.jpg

36. 6 times = 1.2%
2283870_orig.jpg

H cases:

37. 7 times = 1.4%
3507312_orig.jpg

38. 5 times = 1%
1218166_orig.jpg

39. 15 times = 3%
5431036_orig.jpg

40. 19 times= 3.8%
2528722_orig.jpg

Other cases:

41. 9 times = 1.8%
SKIP!

42. 11 times = 2.2 %
T perm

43. 5 times = 1%
Y perm




Top:
1st: 12th case: 4.8%
1457840_orig.jpg


2nd: 27th case: 4.4%
7966830_orig.jpg


3rd: 1st case: 4.2%
6205117_orig.jpg


The least needed cases are:
29th case
5213713_orig.jpg


38th case
1218166_orig.jpg

and: Y perm
 
Well the probabilities are easy to compute. There are 162 possible last layers (disregarding AUF). All cases without rotational symmetry (39 out of 43) have 4 chances out of 162 (2.47%) to occur. The only cases with some rotational symmetry are:
- cases 37 and 38: 2 chances out of 162 (1.23%);
- skip and Y-perm: 1 chance out of 162 (0.62%).
 
If you kepd on going then these numbers *should* tend towards the theoretical probabilities posted by TMOY. If they're not then you've got scrambling issues. Easily fixed by using a random-state scrambler. ;)
 
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