CLL probabilities

[Novriil]

So I did 500 solves and wrote down what cases I got.. Here are the results:

Sune cases:

1. 21 times = 4.2%

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2. 13 times = 2.6%

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3. 7 times = 1.4%

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4. 17 times = 3.4%

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5. 12 times = 2.4%

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6. 8 times = 1.6%

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Anti-Sune cases:

7. 20 times = 4%

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8. 10 times = 2%

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9. 10 times = 2%

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10. 9 times = 1.8%

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11. 7 times = 1.4%

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12. 24 times = 4.8%

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T cases:

13. 12 times = 2.4%

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14. 10 times = 2%

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15. 12 times = 2.4%

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16. 9 times = 1.8%

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17. 17 times = 3.4%

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18. 10 times = 2%

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L cases:

19. 12 times = 2.4%

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20. 11 times = 2.2%

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21. 10 times = 2%

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22. 11 times = 2.2%

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23. 12 times = 2.4%

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24. 10 times = 2%

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U cases:

25. 11 times = 2.2%

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26. 14 times = 2.8%

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27. 22 times = 4.4%

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28. 10 times = 2%

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29. 5 times = 1%

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30. 11 times = 2.2%

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Pi cases:

31. 15 times = 3%

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32. 9 times = 1.8%

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33. 9 times = 1.8%

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34. 16 times = 3.2%

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35. 7 times = 1.4%

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36. 6 times = 1.2%

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H cases:

37. 7 times = 1.4%

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38. 5 times = 1%

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39. 15 times = 3%

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40. 19 times= 3.8%

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Other cases:

41. 9 times = 1.8%
SKIP!

42. 11 times = 2.2 %
T perm

43. 5 times = 1%
Y perm




Top:
1st: 12th case: 4.8%

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2nd: 27th case: 4.4%

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3rd: 1st case: 4.2%

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The least needed cases are:
29th case

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38th case

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and: Y perm

 

[TMOY]

Well the probabilities are easy to compute. There are 162 possible last layers (disregarding AUF). All cases without rotational symmetry (39 out of 43) have 4 chances out of 162 (2.47%) to occur. The only cases with some rotational symmetry are:
- cases 37 and 38: 2 chances out of 162 (1.23%);
- skip and Y-perm: 1 chance out of 162 (0.62%).

 

[miniGOINGS]

Yea, this is as much "probabilities" as "occurences" in your solves.

 

[Cride5]

If you kepd on going then these numbers *should* tend towards the theoretical probabilities posted by TMOY. If they're not then you've got scrambling issues. Easily fixed by using a random-state scrambler.