3bld/4bld/mbld official success rates comparison

[eyeoh]

I wanted to see whether there was any correlation between the success rates of 3bld, 4bld and mbld solvers. I wasn't sure if there was any website to perform that type of database query, so I got a bit carried away with making semi-manual spreadsheets.

Only successful solves and DNFs are tallied for total attempts - DNSs are ignored. Where a cell shows "N/A", it means that the competitor has never entered the event.

Here's what I've managed to put together so far:

Spoiler: World top 10s

Spoiler: United States top 10s

Spoiler: United Kingdom top 10s

Spoiler: Australia top 10s:

I've taken as much care as possible to ensure the tables are accurate but please do let me know if there are any errors - apologies for providing these as screenshots; it was about the easiest/quickest way for me to share this data.

For those who aren't logged in, here are external links to the images:

Spoiler

World top 10:

https://imgur.com/WY9KCk0

United States:

https://imgur.com/lkBVnuN

United Kingdom:

https://imgur.com/hyxOzcv

Australia:

https://imgur.com/tUqHXBe

 

[abunickabhi]

Interesting statistics.

Data looks accurate. Did you infer any correlation when you compiled all these tables?

I would also like if you could compile the list for 5BLD event as well, which has more DNF percentage.

 

[eyeoh]

Okies, I'll work on some 5bld tables - I'll make a set for India too.

I didn't find the results too surprising, and they confirmed that 4bld and even mbld can be extremely difficult events, even for very experienced 3bld solvers. However, I didn't quite expect to see so many 4bld/mbld DNFs (or even non-attempts) at the world or national levels. Even more curious to me was the competitor who avoided 3bld entirely and has only attempted mbld and bigbld in comp. If I may draw a loose chess analogy, 3bld appears to be like blitz chess, mbld like classical chess, and bigbld is more like higher stakes tournament classical chess requiring the most accurate and careful moves.

I think the biggest takeaway of this data is that it can be encouragement for people who aren't yet fast at 3bld - that they might still have success with 4bld if they can develop the right pace and approach to memo. For example, as you and others here might already be aware, Tingman typically averages somewhere between 2 and 3 minutes for 3bld, yet his very first competition 4bld attempt resulted in a mo3!

As far as my own 3bld progress goes - my successes currently average around 3:30 and I'm targeting ~3-minute averages in my current set of 50 solves while maintaining my >60% success rate (I'm using CEEC M2/OP). My times have been consistently improving week by week without any loss in accuracy, so I feel I'm in a sweet spot at the moment for continued improvement. I've also been practising 4bld sighted solves, and intend to attempt my first full attempt within the next week or two.

 

[eyeoh]

Here's the world top 10s, including 5bld:

Spoiler: World top 10s - all bld

 

[abunickabhi]

Thanks for the 5BLD results. DId you get any insights from the data that you tabulated?

 

[eyeoh]

To be honest, I haven't looked much into that as I'm just focusing on 3bld and 4bld for now which I understand serves as a good foundation. I've given 5bld sighted solves only a couple of successful goes but find the turning much trickier on my 62mm Meilong 5x5 M. I will however be receiving both an MGC 4 and MGC 5 in the post next week, after which I will still focus on 4bld until I'm very comfortable with that.

From a strategic point of view as far as competitions go, I'll be planning close to my entire time limit on 4bld for the time being while others attempt both 4bld and 5bld within the same combined rounds. In all, these are a couple of the reasons why I didn't initially tabulate 5bld data - it's further past the horizon to me for now, and I expect sample sizes below world-class level to be more sparse. I'll see if I can put together the India top 10s tomorrow.

 

[abunickabhi]

Oh cool good to know. Good luck with your practice with the new MGC cubes you will be getting. MGC is really good, and has made me a bit faster too. It will be kind of you if you have India's top 10 tabulated as well. Yes I agree 5BLD is always sparse, as even seasoned 3BLDers struggle with 5BLD sometimes.

Good luck on pushing 4BLD!

 

[eyeoh]

Here are India's 3bld/4bld/5bld/mbld top 10 - sorry about the delay; I got a bit preoccupied with learning Orozco corners over the past week!

Spoiler: India top 10s - all bld

And the next one I plan to make is China.

 

[abunickabhi]

Thanks a lot for making stats for India.
Stats for China will be super interesting since there are lot of fast BLDers now along with Kaijun, like Bowen Yifan etc.