What are the odds of this happening?

[LukeKing67]

I got the exact same times on the pyramix, what are the odds of this?

 

[L4NC3_D4_AS14N]

I got the exact same times on the pyramix, what are the odds of this?

In a row?

 

[LukeKing67]

In a row?

Yeah

 

[Rossy]

Assuming you have a pretty large range of around 4 seconds, the number of possible outcomes is 4000 ( because of 4x1000 for the 3 decimal places). The probability is then 1/4000 because the first time can be anything and the second time has a 1/4000 chance of matching the first time. So the probability is 1/4000 or 0.025%

 

[LukeKing67]

Assuming you have a pretty large range of around 4 seconds, the number of possible outcomes is 4000 ( because of 4x1000 for the 3 decimal places). The probability is then 1/4000 because the first time can be anything and the second time has a 1/4000 chance of matching the first time. So the probability is 1/4000 or 0.025%

Oh wow ok thanks! But I actually average like 8 seconds

 

[Rossy]

But that is giving every possible number in that range an equal chance which is not very accurate as you’re probably more likely to get a 3 or 4 than a 1

 

[Rossy]

But if most solves are within 4 seconds of each other its still correct

 

[Cubinginatree]

There is no probability. It was complete chance there is no math behind this.

 

[LukeKing67]

But if most solves are within 4 seconds of each other its still correct

Ok thanks! I appreciate it

 

[THE_V01DL0RD]

Assuming you have a pretty large range of around 4 seconds, the number of possible outcomes is 4000 ( because of 4x1000 for the 3 decimal places).

am I stupid or would it be like 1000
(10 options per place)^3 decimal places = 1000
and if this would depend how often you get 4.x solves too

 

[THE_V01DL0RD]

I mean I guess it would be 1000^2 cuz you got it twice in a row(so 1000000)
so however often you get 4 second solves, uh multiply it by a million or smthn and you should get it

 

[Rossy]

What I originally put was for if you got solves that were usually within 4 seconds of each other (say you get between 1-5s or 8-12s) but if most solves were within 2 seconds the probability would go down even more (1/2000)

 

[THE_V01DL0RD]

What I originally put was for if you got solves that were usually within 4 seconds of each other (say you get between 1-5s or 8-12s) but if most solves were within 2 seconds the probability would go down even more (1/2000)

I feel like if you wanna use the difference between each solve as a factor, you'd need a much larger set of solves to evaluate. For all you know, he couldve done only 11 solves, making it a 10%
idk maybe I'm misinterpreting.

 

[J-EZ_Music]

I think to find out the true likelyhood of this happening to the OP we would need to know all* of his solve data.

 

[Rossy]

If you wanted to do this the most accurate way you would first calculate the probability of each solve time occurring then calculate the probability of that solve time happening twice in a row. What I put is just giving each solve a equal possibility of happening which in reality is not very true ( I would be more likely to get a 4.509 then a 2.134 but both in my numbers they both have a equal weight in the calculations )

 

[J-EZ_Music]

uhh. basically yeah.

 

[THE_V01DL0RD]

If you wanted to do this the most accurate way you would first calculate the probability of each solve time occurring then calculate the probability of that solve time happening twice in a row. What I put is just giving each solve a equal possibility of happening which in reality is not very true ( I would be more likely to get a 4.509 then a 2.134 but both in my numbers they both have a equal weight in the calculations )

I guess you'd have to know about the odds of certain scrambles happenin, the method OP uses, pick up time, the splits for each step, take pauses and (maybe) nerves into account, and a bunch of other sht like that.

I got the exact same times on the pyramix, what are the odds of this?

The odds of you existing are already inifintismal. the fact you can solve a pyraminx, get a 4.292, and get it again, while being you and while the world exists, is basically 0.
Congrats!

 

[Caleb Valenzuela]

interesting topic as i’ve encountered these situations MANY times before (6.68 twice in a row, and i think a 7.3 twice in a row as well, all on 3x3)

 

[SpeedCubingLord]

You tend to get certain times more than others due to turn speed and average move count. There is no probabaility, though I think integration in calculus may help with this (which I forgot more times than 3bld). This is honestly not that rare, happens to me many times.

 

[stoic]

You tend to get certain times more than others due to turn speed and average move count. There is no probabaility, though I think integration in calculus may help with this (which I forgot more times than 3bld). This is honestly not that rare, happens to me many times.

Yeah I’d imagine there’s a lot of this about. I did a round of 5x5 last year where both of my solves were 2:48.23.