obelisk477
Member
That's what you use to set the prior. You update the prior based on evidence.
I can believe it if someone has a much worse official result in one or two events than what they get in these weekly comps. Hell, my own 4×4×4 official results are complete garbage compared to what I get here. Even so, it's stretching it if this happens across almost every event.
(But also there may be an underlying legitimate reason to perform poorly overall, so this isn't exceptionally strong evidence of cheating; I think it'd be fair to give cubeshepherd a chance to defend himself before jumping to conclusions.)
Yeah I'd be more forgiving if it was a couple of events, but it's *every single event*, and they're all mediocre times, across all of the rounds (look at the updated cubecomps above). Also, if someone was that good, and had a lot of nerves, you'd expect to see a couple of fast singles here and there, and then really bad times on other solves, leading to a mediocre average. But there are literally no fast singles at this most recent comp except maybe a pyra one. On the contrary; his times are fairly consistent, but consistently meh. It would take an overwhelming amount of evidence, at least for me, to believe that he's actually that fast, at all events.
Also, I'm not gonna hack out the math, but if you look at his week after week results on the speedsolving forum comps, his "times" consistently line up with someone you would consider to be one of the better overall cubers in the world.
I just don't believe it.