The idea of "lucky" and "non-lucky" is ridiculous.

amostay2004 said:
He probably meant that he worked for the higher chance at a PLL skip by permuting the corners as well.
Click to expand...
If his method doesn't involve PLL, he can't skip it. And if he uses COLL+EPLL in addition to OLL+PLL, he might be working for getting EPLL instead of PLL, but that's not working for an EPLL skip. It's working for getting EPLL instead of PLL. Unless he's doing more than just regular COLL, his PLL skip probability after COLL doesn't exist and his EPLL skip probability is 1/12 which he ought to consider lucky, by the long-standing 20% rule.
 
I meant that part of the reason I do COLL is for the 1/12 chance of EPLL skip. It's not the classical definition of "working for it", but 1/12 is a good enough chance that I expect to get at least one any time I do a decent number of solves.
 
can i bring some roux to this thread?

ok, so after i make my 2 blocks and all of my edges are oriented. Then i do my coll/cll/cmll (i use a big mix of them all) would my solve be consider lucky because i "accidentally" skipped a step? i myself would not consider this solve lucky
on the other hand if i do my cmll, then i orient edges and i end up with a solved cube. i do consider that lucky.
 
Of course it would be dumb if it were much higher than 20% and I agree with that, but I am just interested in the origin of the 20% figure - how was it decided upon and why? If you go by the simple definition of "lucky" - occuring by chance - then anything that happens less than 1/2 the time would have to be considered "lucky" and nonlucky solves would be incredibly rare.

And of course in the cubing sense there's also the problem of evaluating what a lucky F2L is...
 
I've always been under the impression that a lucky solve wasn't one with a step skipped, it was just one that's not at all representative of your average solve length. If I look at my CCT log, almost all my recent times are between 34 and 50 seconds, with one 28 second solve. I remember that, and it wasn't a PLL skip or anything, it was just a normal solve that I did an unusually good job with F2L lookahead on...

Lucky solves are just statistical outliers, that's all. It doesn't matter WHY the solve was the time it was.
 
I knew OLL and PLL, then I learned COLL, and from there, I kept going.
I only know enough ZBF2L to have a certain degree of fluidity, but I don't yet know all of it yet.

This thread isnt about ZB though, I don't want to thread hijack. ;)
 
The reason I said that is that ZBLL requires ZBF2L, which I was considering in my mind an extra last layer step. But yeah I guess it is a 1LLL.
 
haha good point. interesting to know though.

back on topic: would it be lucky to be pairing up an f2l peice and as I'm finishing it another one matches up? I mean... I suppose it wasn't on purpose, but I'm not working for the f2l peices to be in any specific place, I just solve them from where they are.

... I hope this makes sense. Like for instance, I prefere same-color-on-top for pairing f2l... but it isn't lucky if I get that... so where is the line drawn?
 
Exactly, with each step the are lucky and non lucky cases.

3 move cross.
Pre-paired edges.
OLL skip.
Easy perm.

The idea of a lucky solve is too nebulous for it to have real significance.
 
I've done a bit of math (which I'm bad at, so please, let me know if I'm wrong).

After COLL, the odds of getting an EPLL skip are 1/12. This means the chance of getting at least one EPLL skip in an average of 12 is 1-((11/12)^12), or roughly 65% (or 35% in an average of 5). The probability of getting EXACTLY one skip is ((1/12)*(11/12)^11)*12, or 38% (13% in an average of 5).

If I am correct, the probability of getting a skip that affects my average (2 or more skips in an average) is over 26% for an average of 12 or 22% in an average of 5.
 
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