Predicting the Winning 3x3x3 Average for World Championships 2009

[FU]

11.xx wins the championship. (yes I'm just guessing that everyone will get nervous on that day)

 

[Pedro]

sub-11...something like 10.5 to 10.8

 

[Derrick Eide17]

11.19

message too short

 

[sheriff]

11.10

no way sub10, impossible. 10.8 or so maybe the best avg in the WC

how can you guys talk about 9, or EVEN 8 SECONDS!!??!?! that way you seem not to appreciate how how difficult is to be sub11...seriously...

 

[trying-to-speedcube...]

9.63, by erik:

(7.48), 9.96, 10.13, (10.56), 8.80

 

[Harris Chan]

If you round off some winning averages, you get this:

20, 15, 12.5, which has change of 5, 2.5. Perhaps the next change will be 1.25, so that means 11.25 average. Of course, it'll probably be sub 11. I don't think that WR averages will be set in WC though, as it never happened before (except in 2003, because that's the first time it was done).

P.S. The limit of this "function" would be 10 seconds. Haha

 

[blah]

P.S. The limit of this "function" would be 10 seconds. Haha

So I was a little too optimistic when I mentioned 6 then?

 

[hawkmp4]

How about we predict what the next great physics discovery will be?
I think we'll have better luck with that. We're all talking out of our asses here.

thats the second time today where i've read a post where you say that. we are not all talking out of our rears(need i remind you that this is an all ages forum?) the equation i gave is perfectly reasonable, and well within the bound of extrapolation, given such a high R value. since Erik almost got a 10.97 at Brussels, i dont think its unreasonable at all to think that one year from now someone will be able to pull of a 10.7 or so in compitition. Last year, i dont think anyone would have though that we would have 3 non-lucky sub-9 solves by 3 different people. and the progress made on 4x4 and 5x5 is frankly insane. sub-11 is very reasonable.

i will admit that people who think a sub-9 avg will be possible in a years time are indeed talking out of their tushes, but they are not the majority.

Well, really, we have no idea at all. Especially with an average of 5, which isn't all that indicative of someone's ability. Plus, with it being in competition, with the pressure, that allows for even more variability. Someone could be having a bad day, be under a lot of stress, anything.
And its not like we're looking at 20 years of times to look at. We're trying to fit an equation to 3 points...
And as for talking out of our asses, my theory is, if something isn't filtered out by the forum then its fine.

 

[shelley]

We may only have three points to look at, but trying to fit a linear regression to something like this is just silly.

 

[Fobo911]

We may only have three points to look at, but trying to fit a linear regression to it is just silly.

Well, linear regression was the only thing I could do with such big x values as 2003, etc. I didn't know that I could have used 1, 2, 3, etc. instead. Well, I learned something from this thread.

 

[pjk]

I think a 10.73 second avg will win the competition, as I mentioned earlier.

However, I think the WR avg by the time Worlds '09 comes about will be sub 10.5.

 

[Neutrals01]

10.6x wr avg...just guess...hmm..

 

[cubejunkies]

Let's see... I did a linear regression and got a best fit line equation of -3.77x+23.393333333333 which means that my guess for the winning average is... 8.31 seconds as well , which is only for WC averages, my real actual guess is...

Take the best averages of each single year from 2003 to 2008 you get a best fit line equation of -1.5214285714287x+19.553333333334 and my actual guess is an average of 8.9 seconds

 

[fanwuq]

Too difficult to say exact number. Best prediction is sub-12. I think that is probably 99.999999999% likely. Perhaps it will be somewhere around 10.5? sub-10 is possible, but not too likely.

 

[cubejunkies]

Too difficult to say exact number. Best prediction is sub-12. I think that is probably 99.999999999% likely. Perhaps it will be somewhere around 10.5? sub-10 is possible, but not too likely.

Well (while i still have my calculator out), the averages have dropped on average 1.744 seconds each year, so assuming a constant rate of change, then the average in one year is 9.536, so it may be a lot more possible, actually

 

[fanwuq]

Too difficult to say exact number. Best prediction is sub-12. I think that is probably 99.999999999% likely. Perhaps it will be somewhere around 10.5? sub-10 is possible, but not too likely.

Well (while i still have my calculator out), the averages have dropped on average 1.744 seconds each year, so assuming a constant rate of change, then the average in one year is 9.536, so it may be a lot more possible, actually

But it's not a linear relationship...

 

[cubejunkies]

Too difficult to say exact number. Best prediction is sub-12. I think that is probably 99.999999999% likely. Perhaps it will be somewhere around 10.5? sub-10 is possible, but not too likely.

Well (while i still have my calculator out), the averages have dropped on average 1.744 seconds each year, so assuming a constant rate of change, then the average in one year is 9.536, so it may be a lot more possible, actually

But it's not a linear relationship...

okay then, i did the exponential regression and the average in 2009 according to the equation 20.011389731627*.90239559299936^x is 9.75 seconds, again, sub 10

haha that rhymed

 

[Hadley4000]

I'm going to say high 10s-low 11s.


I think that there will be a sub-10 average some day, though.

 

[Dene]

I don't see why sub10 is so out-of-range. One solve sub9 (which is happening now), 2 solves sub10, 1 bad solve (12+), and one solve sub10.5ish, and you could have a sub10 average.

 

[cubejunkies]

I don't see why sub10 is so out-of-range. One solve sub9 (which is happening now), 2 solves sub10, 1 bad solve (12+), and one solve sub10.5ish, and you could have a sub10 average.

We did all, however, assume that a WR average would be set, which is sub-10 at the moment, and according to my calculations, a WR average of sub-10 seconds is probably going to happen at the end of next year, which could be at the WC09, but, keep in mind that last year, WR average was not set at the WC