Older cubers discussions

[mark49152]

Statistical analysis time, folks.

I keep an Excel plot of all my 3x3 averages. Just out of curiosity, I tried adjusting an exponential trend line to converge on different steady state values (i.e. the theoretical fastest I could ever get) and looked at which gave the best fit (R^2) against my data set. Depressingly, by far the best fit is a line that converges on 21 seconds. I hope that doesn't mean it's more than just a temporary plateau!

If I meet the targets I have set for myself this year, culminating in sub-18 by end of year, the trendline that passes through those would see me one day reach a theoretical limit of 15 seconds. If I want to be a sub-10 solver one day, my target this year should be sub-16.5 (although I would be in a retirement home by the time the line intercepts sub-10 anyway).

 

[MarcelP]

.. my target this year should be sub-16.5 (although I would be in a retirement home by the time the line intercepts sub-10 anyway).

LOL, the other people in the retirement home will be very annoyed by your cubing..

I am pretty sure sub 16 is out of reach for me. My ultimate goal will be siomething around sub 18. I would be very happy with that. I am quite sub 22 these days. And I have almost every day a Sub 20 or at least very low 20.XX Ao12. But in Ao100 I really do not see that happen soon. Looking at your signature.. I see you have almost same times as I do..

 

[mark49152]

LOL, the other people in the retirement home will be very annoyed by your cubing..

I am pretty sure sub 16 is out of reach for me. My ultimate goal will be siomething around sub 18. I would be very happy with that. I am quite sub 22 these days. And I have almost every day a Sub 20 or at least very low 20.XX Ao12. But in Ao100 I really do not see that happen soon. Looking at your signature.. I see you have almost same times as I do..

You have better smaller averages but our ao100s are close. I guess that means I'm more consistent. Today I did an ao50 before work and got 21.95 with stdev of 1.64. Best ao5 was still sup-20.

On the other hand, it shows you have better developed potential than me. You can already get sub-18 averages and you know what it feels like to be that fast. You've proven your capability. All you have to do is extend that form to the rest of your solving.

 

[Gordon]

LOL, the other people in the retirement home will be very annoyed by your cubing..

Most of them don't hear it, or they could swith off their hearing aids.

 

[mark49152]

Most of them don't hear it, or they could swith off their hearing aids.

I'll have them all cubing as well. We'll have races every day - winner gets to choose what to watch on TV

 

[MarcelP]

LOL!!!!! watching TV is the only thing to do so close before dying huh?

 

[MarcelP]

You have better smaller averages but our ao100s are close. I guess that means I'm more consistent. Today I did an ao50 before work and got 21.95 with stdev of 1.64. Best ao5 was still sup-20.

On the other hand, it shows you have better developed potential than me. You can already get sub-18 averages and you know what it feels like to be that fast. You've proven your capability. All you have to do is extend that form to the rest of your solving.

I think my fast solves depend on luck and not on potential Some different, could you please do Ao25 or 50 when you have the time with someting like csTimer. With inspection time, and 055 seconds holding (like stackmat it says)? So with picking up cube? I am curious if it gives you (a lot) worse averages?

 

[mark49152]

I think my fast solves depend on luck and not on potential Some different, could you please do Ao25 or 50 when you have the time with someting like csTimer. With inspection time, and 055 seconds holding (like stackmat it says)? So with picking up cube? I am curious if it gives you (a lot) worse averages?

Well yeah I would almost certainly suck at least until well practised with a new timer and procedure. I use a phone timer and start and stop with one hand on the cube. I don't time inspection either, although I don't spend long on it.

I time myself just for fun and am not competitive, but you are right, if we want to meaningfully compare our times, we should use consistent (competition) rules. I will give it a go when I have time.

Another factor that might affect our larger averages is how many outliers are excluded by the timer. I don't think there's a standard for that - some exclude only the best/worst 1, others exclude the best/worst 5%, etc. I think mine does the latter.

 

[MarcelP]

I time myself just for fun and am not competitive, but you are right, if we want to meaningfully compare our times, we should use consistent (competition) rules. I will give it a go when I have time.

Yeah, I think, if picking up the cube is not part of your normal routine it might throw you off a few secs also. It took me a while to adjust to that. Now at a competition I will be prepared. I suspect that you might be slight slower on Ao50 and 100 with picking up like that. You have to watch the screen to see if light is green so you can release spacebar (or stackmat). That causes you to look away from the cross solution you have in mind. Pre pare your self.. it is harder than you suspect.

 

[Schmidt]

Or... you could just use a stackmat and enter the times manually.

 

[MarcelP]

Or... you could just use a stackmat and enter the times manually.

Yeah. stackmat is the best way to go. I left mine at the last competion. All I have is a louzy QJ timer which does not even stop 50% of the times.

 

[mark49152]

Yeah, I think, if picking up the cube is not part of your normal routine it might throw you off a few secs also. It took me a while to adjust to that. Now at a competition I will be prepared.

Yeah I don't think I can be bothered with any of that. I doubt I will ever compete, and I do most of my solving on the sofa or bed with my phone on my knee. No desk or laptop or stackmat and it would be too much hassle to start with that. I start the timer before first turn and stop after last turn and that's good enough for me.

Feel free to treat my averages with skepticism that they aren't worth the same as yours

 

[MarcelP]

Feel free to treat my averages with skepticism that they aren't worth the same as yours

Oh no, it's nothing like that. I am just curious if we are at the same level It might explain why I get some good smaller averages.

 

[mark49152]

Oh no, it's nothing like that. I am just curious if we are at the same level I might epxlain why I get some good smaller averages.

We're not at the same level yet. I have made good progress in the last 6 months and certainly gained on you, but have not caught you yet; and I accept that even if I matched your ao100 PB tomorrow, you got yours under stricter conditions.

Have you got any comps planned?

 

[MarcelP]

Yeah. I am planning for Eat Sleep Cube Repeat (just the sunday) and Amstelveen. I am really looking forward to both. Seeing Mats, Erik Akkersdijk, Antoinie (fazfan) doing their stuff in real is a privilege.

 

[MarcelP]

You have better smaller averages but our ao100s are close. I guess that means I'm more consistent. Today I did an ao50 before work and got 21.95 with stdev of 1.64. Best ao5 was still sup-20.

Todays (well this mornings ) Ao100 was terrible.. Overall result was sub 21.5 so that's good but I felt it went terrible. Also no sub 20 Ao12's. And yes, my stddev is bigger than yours..

Spoiler

Generated By csTimer on 2014-7-5
solves/total: 100/100

single
best: 15.41
worst: 28.71

mean of 3
current: 20.42 (σ = 1.92)
best: 18.89 (σ = 3.37)

avg of 5
current: 20.17 (σ = 1.63)
best: 19.25 (σ = 0.12)

avg of 12
current: 20.61 (σ = 1.45)
best: 20.40 (σ = 1.55)

avg of 50
current: 21.25 (σ = 1.75)
best: 21.20 (σ = 1.59)

avg of 100
current: 21.41 (σ = 1.78)
best: 21.41 (σ = 1.78)

Average: 21.41 (σ = 1.78)
Mean: 21.48

Time List:
1. 20.26 R2 F2 B' R' F2 U' F D F' R U' L2 U2 L2 F2 D F2 U R2 U'
2. 26.87 B2 L2 D R2 D L2 D R2 B2 F2 R2 B L B2 R2 F2 D L R U B
3. 21.23 R2 L' D2 B2 R2 U D' B' R2 U' D2 R' D2 R U2 R F2 D2 L
4. 20.22 U' B' U' B' R U R' F U2 B D2 R2 U2 F2 U' F2 R2
5. 23.17 R' D' R' F B2 R B' L U L' F B2 D2 F L2 B' D2 R2 B2 L2
6. 23.10 U' R U R D' F R L2 U' F2 B2 D F2 D2 F2 D F2
7. 26.16 L R B2 D2 L U2 R' B2 U2 B2 L2 F' D' B D U R' F2 R' D L2
8. 21.12 R F2 L F2 D2 U2 L D2 F2 D2 B R' D2 U R2 F D B2 L' U2
9. 19.30 U2 D R B2 U D' B U2 L' F' U B2 U L2 U' L2 U F2 D'
10. 19.74 F' R' F' R' D' L F2 B2 R U L2 D F2 U B2 U L2 F2 D'
11. 24.83 L F2 D2 F2 L' D2 L' R' D2 B2 F U F R D L' B2 R' F R'
12. 19.03 U2 L2 R2 F2 L2 U2 B U2 F2 L2 R' B L D F2 L2 F' D2 L
13. 23.53 D' R2 F D' B' D2 R U2 R' F U2 L2 F L2 U2 R2 F'
14. 22.48 L2 R2 F' D2 B' F U2 L2 R2 F L' R F' U2 B D' L2 F D2 F2
15. 20.74 D' R2 D R2 U F2 L2 U2 B2 F U R' B' D' U B2 L' D2 B
16. 20.15 B2 U' L2 U' L2 U F2 U' R2 F2 D2 R D L2 B' D2 R' B R U' R
17. 19.79 R2 D' R F2 B U' B R F2 L U2 L2 F B2 R2 L2 F' R2 D2 F2 L2
18. 20.72 L2 B R2 D F2 R2 U2 B D' F2 R2 D2 R U2 R2 B2 R2 L B2 D2
19. 19.67 U2 B' L2 F2 D2 B L2 B U2 L2 B L' B2 D2 R U' L B L'
20. 22.32 U2 L2 B2 U' F2 B D L' B' R U2 L2 F2 R2 U2 L2 D' B2 D2 L2 F2
21. 22.64 U2 B U2 D2 R' U2 B' U2 D' L F2 L2 B2 U R2 U2 F2 B2 U L2 B2
22. 22.67 U2 L F R B R F2 B R B L2 F2 R2 F2 U2 F2 D' R2 U R2 U2
23. 24.06 D F2 U R2 U2 L2 R2 U' B2 F2 U' B D B D2 F' R B U' F' U'
24. 20.92 L2 U2 F2 R2 F2 L2 B L2 U2 F U2 L' F D' R F2 U' L' U L2 B
25. 20.66 B2 L2 U2 R2 D L2 D' B2 U' L2 B2 L' F R D2 B' U B D2 U2 F
26. 19.68 L U L2 B' D R' D2 L' D F' R2 D' B2 U' F2 D2 F2 D' L2 U'
27. 22.24 R2 B L2 R2 B L2 B2 U2 B' D2 L2 R B F2 U F2 R2 B L U F
28. 24.96 U2 L2 F2 D2 U L2 B2 U2 B2 F2 U' L' F R2 D' R2 B' D' F L U'
29. 21.31 U2 R' U B' R' U2 L B L2 U D2 R2 D2 F L2 F R2 L2 U2 F' R2
30. 24.35 B L2 R2 B' F2 L2 D2 B2 F' L2 R' D R D2 B' R' D L U' F2
31. 19.52 D R2 U2 L2 D' B2 U' F2 L2 U2 R B D B' U F D R B R'
32. 26.21 D L2 D' B2 D2 B2 R2 U' L2 F2 L2 F U2 R' B2 F2 U2 B' D F2 U'
33. 19.67 L' F2 U2 L' D2 B2 L' B2 R U2 F2 D' L' R B D2 U' L' B2 F2 U'
34. 28.71 F' L2 D2 B' L2 B' R2 B' R2 D F' U L R' D' L2 D F2 U2
35. 24.38 L2 D2 B2 R2 F2 L2 U2 R2 U' F2 D' B R' U F' U2 R2 F L U' R
36. 21.15 U2 F2 L F2 B D' R F R' L' D2 R2 D' R2 L2 F2 D' B2 R2 F2 D'
37. 17.85 F2 L2 R F2 U2 L U2 L B2 U' L2 B F' D' F' L' B F' L'
38. 19.73 L2 R2 F2 D' L2 D2 B2 D' F2 U R B2 U R' D' R2 U' L B' R2
39. 21.23 D' B2 F2 D' F2 R2 D2 R2 U B2 D' F' D' F D' L2 R B' L F' U'
40. 19.43 L2 B U2 B U2 F L2 F2 L2 D' U2 L2 U2 B' R' F2 L' D2 U2
41. 20.50 L2 D B2 D' B2 R2 D' L2 U B2 R2 F' R' D' B R' B2 U2 F' R F
42. 22.71 B' R U2 L B' L2 B U2 F U' L2 B2 D' B2 U F2 U F2 B2
43. 22.16 F2 U2 R2 U' R2 F2 U B2 U L2 R2 B U2 L2 R' F L2 B U' F2 U2
44. 19.59 L2 D' R2 F2 U' F2 R2 F2 L2 U2 R' U2 B' U F R F L B F'
45. 20.11 D' U' R2 F2 D L2 B2 L2 F' R' D' F D2 L2 F2 R' U' L
46. 21.54 R2 F2 L2 D R2 U' F2 L2 U2 B2 R U F D L R D R D B2
47. 20.68 U R' F U' L F2 U' R' B' U2 D2 F D2 B2 R2 B' L2 D2 F
48. 19.22 D' L2 U B2 R2 U' R2 U' F2 L2 D2 B' L' D' B' F2 D R B L' F2
49. 19.38 U' L2 D2 R2 B2 F2 D2 B2 R2 U' L2 B' F' L' U R2 F' D2 R' D R'
50. 22.12 R2 D F2 L2 D2 U' B2 R2 B2 L2 D L' F U2 B D' F' U' L' D'
51. 19.15 F2 L D2 L F2 D2 R' D2 R2 D2 L B U2 B2 D' F L' B' L' U2
52. 15.41 F2 L2 F2 D' U2 L2 R2 F2 D' L2 D' F' D' F L' D2 B2 F2 R D F'
53. 22.59 U2 B2 R' L2 F U2 B' R' D F B' R2 U2 F' R2 F2 L2 B' D2 F'
54. 25.20 L2 R2 U2 F2 D' B2 D' R2 U2 L2 R' F U R D2 L' B' R F D2 U2
55. 24.73 U2 B2 L' D2 U2 R D2 B2 L2 R' D2 F' D2 B' L U R D' R F U'
56. 18.70 F2 R2 U' L2 D' L2 F2 R2 U2 L B' F2 L' R2 U2 R B D'
57. 20.22 R D' F2 L' F R2 U D R' B R' B2 R D2 L B2 R L' F2 U2
58. 20.98 D2 U2 B' L2 B2 L2 U2 L2 F2 R2 B2 U B' D' L R' D' B2 U' R' F
59. 20.75 R2 B R L' U2 L' B U' L2 F D2 L' F2 R' U2 R' L' F2 R' U2 B2
60. 20.07 U2 F2 R2 D2 U2 B2 L' D2 L2 F2 R' U' B2 L' D2 U2 B D2 L' R
61. 21.80 B2 U2 L2 D' B2 D' R2 D F' U R D F2 L F' U B2 F
62. 19.31 D B' R2 U B U2 D2 R B L' U2 D2 R F2 L U2 D2 F2 R2
63. 21.80 U2 L2 R B2 U2 L U2 R' U2 B2 R' B F' R U F' D' F2 R B'
64. 24.18 F R2 F D2 F2 L2 B' R2 F2 L2 R2 U B' U2 L2 F' L U' B' D'
65. 21.86 U' R' B' D2 B2 L F' U' R' D' R2 B L2 B' R2 F D2 R2 F L2 B2
66. 21.83 R2 D L2 U L2 D F2 L2 D U' R2 F' U B2 U2 R2 D2 L B2 R2 U
67. 17.72 D F U R B2 U2 L' B2 U L' F2 R' U2 F2 L D2 F2 D2 L'
68. 23.43 R' F2 L2 B2 L R2 D2 L2 B2 U B2 U2 F' D' R U2 R' F U
69. 20.95 R2 U' B2 F2 L2 U L2 D' B2 F2 U2 B' U L F2 D R U' R B2 L
70. 16.37 F2 U' R2 D L2 F2 L2 U2 R2 U R U B F R F D' B' L D'
71. 21.92 L2 U F2 U2 B2 D' L2 U L2 U R' F' D U F2 D2 L' B' D2 F
72. 21.82 F2 L' F2 L B2 R' D2 L U2 R2 U B' R D F L D B2 U2 R2
73. 27.71 L' B' L' D2 R' U2 R B U' F2 R' D2 B2 R B2 R F2 R2 D2 F2
74. 21.88 R2 D' B R2 D2 R' U L' F B2 R2 U D2 F2 D R2 U2 L2 U
75. 22.25 L2 F D2 F2 R2 B' L2 U2 L2 F L2 D' R' F' L2 B' U' L R2 U2 R'
76. 23.26 U' R2 U F2 R2 U2 F2 D' F2 U2 L2 R' U' F2 U2 R D' B' F L U'
77. 22.93 D B2 D R2 F2 U B2 D B2 L' B' D2 B D2 L' R B' U' B F
78. 22.51 R2 F2 U2 R2 B' L2 F D2 U2 L2 B2 R' B' R2 F2 U2 L' U L R'
79. 22.29 R2 U2 L F2 U2 R2 D2 F2 R F2 R2 U F' L B L F L U2 L D'
80. 23.08 U2 R2 B F2 U2 R2 B2 D2 R2 B' F L' D R' B' F2 R2 B2 R2 D F'
81. 18.50 L2 D2 F2 D' U2 F2 R2 U B2 R2 D' F D R' U' L' B2 F2 L B U2
82. 21.93 B2 L D R' D2 F' U B' D' R L2 U2 F' L2 D2 F B2 R2 B2 U2 F'
83. 26.92 B2 D' U2 L2 U' R2 B2 L2 U2 B2 R' B' D' B' F2 D B' U2 R B
84. 18.91 L2 B2 L' U2 R' F2 L' B2 R D2 R2 D F2 D B' U' R D U R B
85. 22.00 U2 B2 L2 R2 U2 F' U2 B' D2 L2 B' D R' U2 B F2 U L' R' U F'
86. 20.79 B2 D2 B2 U' L2 R2 U' R2 F2 U L D2 B D2 F R' D R B' U
87. 20.55 U' L2 B2 L2 U F2 D2 B2 F2 R' B R' F D U' L' D' F' U
88. 18.85 D B2 D F2 D' R2 D B2 D2 U' L2 F D' F' R2 F' R B2 D2 B F
89. 23.06 F' R B R L2 U' F U' B R2 L U2 B2 L2 D2 F2 R' U2 D2 B2
90. 25.15 D2 R' D2 B2 L R2 B2 D2 R D B2 R2 U2 F' U' B F L2 R'
91. 20.95 R' D2 B2 F2 L2 R' U2 F2 R' F2 R U R' B' D' F2 R U L R2
92. 19.00 L2 U F2 D' L2 D U2 R2 F2 U2 B2 R' U L2 F' U' L2 F' R2 U R
93. 19.09 L2 D2 R2 F2 L2 D' R2 D' U' R2 B2 F R' U2 B2 R2 U R' D L U'
94. 20.97 F2 R2 U2 L2 U' B2 D L2 F2 D B L' F' D2 R U' L2 B2 F' D' R
95. 20.52 B2 R2 B F2 U2 R2 D2 L2 B2 F D2 R B2 U' F L U' R' F' D R
96. 21.27 D2 F' R2 D2 F' U2 F2 D2 F D2 B' L' U B2 U R' B D U F' U
97. 17.32 L2 U F2 L2 F2 D F2 D2 F' U' L B2 D F' R' U' L F
98. 22.01 L2 F' R2 B L2 F D2 L2 F D2 U L' U2 R' D' B U2 F U2 L D2
99. 18.30 D' L2 B2 U' B2 U' F2 L2 F2 D2 R2 F' L F' L U' L R2 F R F2
100. 20.96 R2 B2 D' F2 D2 L2 U F2 U2 R2 B R2 U2 L F' R2 B' D' B2 U

 

[mark49152]

Todays (well this mornings ) Ao100 was terrible.. Overall result was sub 21.5 so that's good but I felt it went terrible. Also no sub 20 Ao12's. And yes, my stddev is bigger than yours..

That's actually very similar to a typical distribution for me. I usually see the ao50/100 around high 21 (22 on a bad day) and the ao5/12 around low 20 or high 19. Stdev is usually around 1.8.

 

[MarcelP]

Stdev is usually around 1.8.

Mine is usually way over 2. After these 100 I changed cube to my Weilong V2:

Spoiler

101. 20.40 B R' D' F2 B' U2 F' L2 U2 L B' U2 D2 R2 F' D2 B R2 B2 L2 U2
102. 19.73 R F' B' D' L' U' D B' D' F' U B2 D2 L2 F2 D' F2 R2 F2 R2 F2
103. 19.93 D2 L D F2 L D' F R' U R2 F2 R2 F2 R' F2 D2 B2 L F2 L
104. 18.83 U' L B' D' F B' U' B2 D R D' R2 F2 U' D2 B2 L2 U2 L2 D2
105. 18.53 F B' R2 D' L F2 R' L2 U' F L2 F R2 U2 F2 R2 L2 U2 B' D2
making:

avg of 5
current: 19.50 (σ = 0.58)
best: 19.25 (σ = 0.12)

avg of 12
current: 19.94 (σ = 1.07)
best: 19.94 (σ = 1.07)

 

[DeeDubb]

Marcel, let's race to Sub-20 Ao100 I'm having issues right now because I'm adding color neutrality, but it's getting better.

 

[MarcelP]

Yeah sure. I think you are progressing a bit faster than me but I could use the motivation.