Minesweeper Probabilities

[Zaterlord]

Do you never have to guess on Beginner?

 

[Georgeanderre]

I never guess on any mode until I absolutely have to. To this day I have only ever guessed on the last 2 squares of expert when its in the corner and either could be the final mine.

I have also played a very similar game called Vinesweeper, if you've played it you'll know what I mean, I have never needed to guess on that and I have scored in excess of 3million points... if you have no idea what Vinesweeper is, don't ask

but for the meantime... big necro -.-

 

[MattMcConaha]

I used to play alot of minesweeper in my college days, true that the first click is always a wild guess, then the next few clicks would also be a guess but if you got 1 area open wide, that's the time to simultaneously click left and right click right? to know which one is the mine and which one is not.

In minesweeper, the first click is NEVER a numbered spot. This means that at least you will have opened up a 3x3 hole in the board (unless you click a corner, then you get at least a 2x2.) With this 3x3 opening it is often times possible to open up the gap more until you have plenty of easy mines.

And as for the RL simulclick: The only thing that does is click on all the surrounding spaces around a number. if you RL click on a 1 that you put a flag beside, then that's the same as clicking all the spaces around the 1. However, if you put the flag in the wrong spot, then you lose. If you have the incorrect number of flags around the number, then RL clicking does nothing.

 

[Bicycling Bob]

My Statistics

Hey everybody, I'm a minesweeper nut and have been using Google to try and figure out what percentage of Expert minesweeper games are winnable without guessing (specifically without having to guess a 50:50 case). So far I haven't found this calculation anywhere and seeings how there are quite a few math/probability geniuses here I figured I'd ask.

One possible explanation for me not finding this calc yet is because it is impossible to compute.. Minesweeper is NP-complete when considering mine placement, but I think that calculating a percentage of winnable games (without guessing) is a different issue and thus possibly not NP-complete.

MineSweep: Impossible endings aginst games won.
Series No Games % Un-
#: End Won winable
1: xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxx ------- 19 32 37%
2: xxxxx xxxxx ------------------ 10 25 40%
3: xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxx 18 52 35%
4: xxxxx xxxx ------------------- 9 18 33%
5: xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx 25 47 35%
6: xxxxx xxxxx x ------------------- 11 22 33%
7: xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx 30 53 36% Ongoing
xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx 60 116 34% Ongoing
xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx 90 163 36% Ongoing
xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx 120 222 35% Ongoing
xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx 150 282 35% Ongoing
xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx 180 348 34% Ongoing
xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx 210 438 32% Ongoing
xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx 240 512 32% Ongoing
xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx 270 555 33% Ongoing
xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx 300 612 33% Done
8: xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx 30 71 30% Ongoing
xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx 60 141 30% Ongoing
xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx 90 202 31% Ongoing
xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx 120 271 31% Done[/B]
9: xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx 30 72 29% Ongoing
xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx 60 138 30% Ongoing
xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx 90 207 30% Done
10:xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx 30 48 78% Ongoing
xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx 60 100 38% Ongoing
xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx 90 157 36% Ongoing
xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx 120 218 36% Done
11:xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx 30 70 30% Done
12:xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx 30 70 30% Done
13:xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx 30 64 32% Done
14:xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx 30 64 32% Done
15:xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx 30 54 36% Ongoing
xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx 60 127 32% Ongoing
xxxxx xxxxx

Games won against games guess: I replay any game I lose so this is pretty (actually extremely) accurate. As you can see it's 1/3 for every 3 games played, it's 1 game guess.
Each x = 1 guess game in the series. "No Ending" = Guess ending. "Games Won" = Games I won

As you can see, short runs can vary a lot. Even 30 game series can vary a lot.
You can see how the #10 series started a 78% "Guess Ending" but ended at 36% "Guess Endings"
If you add up all these series you will get a pretty good (Actually very accurate) idea of what the end is.

1 Guess game for every 3 games played.

Pretty bad competitive sport.

Can you rely on my endgame. You bet. I'm good. Very good.

 

[Bicycling Bob]

Bicycling Bob

Sorry about that.

All formatting was done before I posted but it didn't come out right after posting. Good luck fixing their error.

 

[Game Nut]

I consider myself an expert minesweeper player. I don't have the fastest of times, (average of about 150 seconds) but that's just because i like to flag everything. However I believe I can play the closest anyone can get to a perfect game. I've played over 2,400 minesweeper games over the past 2 years and with probably about 100 of those games being throw away games where I didn't try. my percentage is 36%. I've since reset my statistics out of curiosity of the same question you are asking. I want to know how high I can get my percentage playing perfectly. Algorithms aren't good enough because most of them don't take into account percentages of all possibilities of selecting a set of squares along with the probability of the selecting square being beneficial to further completion of the board.

 

[~Adam~]

my percentage is 36%.

=O

Anyone know the chance of playing an expert game in which you don't have to guess at all?

Many of my games I have a 50/50 guess twice. Those darn corners.

Edit - then I read the thread and apparently I've asked the question the OP did.