Chances of getting oll and pll skip

[adimare]

Do you want the chances calculated using logic or math?
With math they are 1/216 for an OLL skip and 1/72 for a PLL skip, with logic the chances are higher.

Uh... what?

I was just making fun of this thread: http://www.speedsolving.com/forum/showthread.php?p=197726#post197726

I got one of those once, so mathematically you will get one every 15,552 solves.

Eugh, that's not how it works.

I repeat, MATHEMATICALLY
Yes, the chances of it happening excactly every 15,552 solves is rare.

The chances of getting a single LL skip in 15,552 attempts are:
1/15,552 * (15,551/15,552)^15,551 * 15,551 =
(15,551/15,552)^15,551 = 0.3679

36.79% chance of getting exactly one LL skip if you solve 15,552 cubes, not so rare

 

[Stefan]

I was just making fun of this thread: http://www.speedsolving.com/forum/showthread.php?p=197726#post197726

Ah, yes, that makes sense. I vaguely remember it as being hilarious.

 

[Dene]

I was just making fun of this thread: http://www.speedsolving.com/forum/showthread.php?p=197726#post197726

Ah, yes, that makes sense. I vaguely remember it as being hilarious.

LMAO how did you miss that reference? Congratulations to adimare, that post was absolutely hilarious!!!

 

[Stefan]

LMAO how did you miss that reference?

Getting old. We'll talk when you're my age.

 

[Zane_C]

Do you want the chances calculated using logic or math?
With math they are 1/216 for an OLL skip and 1/72 for a PLL skip, with logic the chances are higher.

Uh... what?

I was just making fun of this thread: http://www.speedsolving.com/forum/showthread.php?p=197726#post197726

I got one of those once, so mathematically you will get one every 15,552 solves.

Eugh, that's not how it works.

I repeat, MATHEMATICALLY
Yes, the chances of it happening excactly every 15,552 solves is rare.

The chances of getting a single LL skip in 15,552 attempts are:
1/15,552 * (15,551/15,552)^15,551 * 15,551 =
(15,551/15,552)^15,551 = 0.3679

36.79% chance of getting exactly one LL skip if you solve 15,552 cubes, not so rare

No, I mean on the 15,552 attempt you get LL skip is as rare as any other time (1/15,552).
You seem to have a good understanding of probability.