How to know if you are sub-x (confidence intervals)

[Spencer131]

Have you ever wondered "When can I call myself sub-x?"

Try out the tool Am I Sub-X?

In statistics, there is a concept called 'confidence'. It basically means "How sure are we that this is correct?"

Instead of saying "100 solves is good enough", we can calculate how confident we are that you are sub-X.

In any average, there is a chance that you got lucky or unlucky, so we can never know the "true" average with 100% confidence. The confidence score tells us how confident we are that the "true" average is sub-X.

Example

 

[F'prime]

Wow, ill use this later in my progression to Sub 15.

 

[fes_77]

For people who don't know how to run python notebooks
If people want it, I can add this to cubingapp

Please add it to cubingapp

 

[An Animating Cuber]

Have you ever wondered "When can I call myself sub-x?"

This code on github computes the confidence intervals for your cstimer sessions. If you know how to run python notebooks, feel free to try out the code yourself.

Confidence intervals come from statistics, and a 95% confidence interval means that there is a 95% chance for a solve to fall within that interval.

Instead of a concrete number like "You need 100 solves to be considered sub-x", confidence intervals become more confident the more solves you have.

Now you don't have to use inaccurate measures like "If you get a sub-10 average of 100, then you are sub-10"

Example
Session name: sq1
Average: 23.30
95% confidence interval: (22.60, 24.00)

Session name: OH
Average: 22.18
95% confidence interval: (20.70, 23.66)

Session name: 3x3
Average: 10.75
95% confidence interval: (10.40, 11.11)

For people who don't know how to run python notebooks
If people want it, I can add this to cubingapp

Really cool, I feel like along with this you could also add other statistics like that one defunct website I forgot the name of.

 

[Spencer131]

Really cool, I feel like along with this you could also add other statistics like that one defunct website I forgot the name of.

I assume you're talking about kuebiko? What did people use kuebiko for, and what does it do differently from the cstimer trends?

 

[An Animating Cuber]

I assume you're talking about kuebiko? What did people use kuebiko for, and what does it do differently from the cstimer trends?

I liked all the statistics about the history of your sessions like first sub-x and the more detailed time trends and I also liked fastest solves.

 

[fes_77]

I assume you're talking about kuebiko? What did people use kuebiko for, and what does it do differently from the cstimer trends?

what ever happened to kuebiko? i really liked it all i know is that it shut down but WHY?!

 

[quanloh]

It was a personal project and I think the site owner just decided to not run it anymore.

 

[Spencer131]

Please add it to cubingapp

Done

Check out Am I Sub-X?

 

[fes_77]

Done

Check out Am I Sub-X?

this is really cool! the only thing you should change is instead of something like 114 seconds its 1 Minute and 54 seconds

 

[An Animating Cuber]

Done

Check out Am I Sub-X?

Cool, I think that people who keep lifetime sessions have inflated confidence intervals but there's not much that can be done.

 

[CoderGuru]

Done

Check out Am I Sub-X?

Oof. I use CubeDesk. If you could integrate that it would be nice but dont feel rushed to do jt

 

[Spencer131]

Oof. I use CubeDesk. If you could integrate that it would be nice but dont feel rushed to do jt

There are so many timers to integrate and it's difficult to know which ones people actually want

I think the kuebiko website ran into a similar issue. Looking at the code it seems like they supported cstimer, zyxtimer, chaotimer, and qqtimer

Side note: I'm trying to reach out to Alex Friedman to see if he would allow me to use his code and keep kuebiko alive

 

[UncleFrank]

What did people use kuebiko for, and what does it do differently from the cstimer trends?

It had lots of great graphs and stats.
Here are some examples -

https://imgur.com/a/2dsxAsJ

Maybe you could create a fork? and add it to cubingapp?

GitHub - tussosedan/kuebiko-cubing: Analyze speedcubing timers export data with interactive charts and data insights

Analyze speedcubing timers export data with interactive charts and data insights - tussosedan/kuebiko-cubing

github.com

 

[Spencer131]

Maybe you could create a fork? and add it to cubingapp?

I would like to

I just want to make sure the original developer is amenable to it first

 

[UncleFrank]

Done

Check out Am I Sub-X?

I posted this to Reddit /r/cubers, if that's ok.

 

[Spencer131]

I posted this to Reddit /r/cubers, if that's ok.

yes, thank you

 

[Ayce]

Yeah I don’t know, the site calls me sub 16 on 3x3 and sub 10 on clock, which aren’t wrong but even my ao5000 is better than that

 

[Spencer131]

Yeah I don’t know, the site calls me sub 16 on 3x3 and sub 10 on clock, which aren’t wrong but even my ao5000 is better than that

I have a feeling it could be thrown off by solves that are really old. So basically if you got faster, the older times would be holding you back

One way I could solve that is to calculate the confidence scores with only the 1000 most recent solves, for example

 

[UncleFrank]

yes, thank you

Have you added more timers? Twisty Timer for android, CubeTime for ios, seem to be the most popular mobile apps.