0.000001% Chance Of THIS Happening!? INSANE

[ElyasCubing]

This is INSANE! I can't believe this happened to me ahahhaha. Please like the video and subscribe for more content!

 

[Fire Cubing]

This is INSANE! I can't believe this happened to me ahahhaha. Please like the video and subscribe for more content!

There's a glitch in the matrix

 

[Garf]

There's a glitch in the matrix

Naw. I think some insane probability has come up. Probably a very low chance of ever happening again, like 1 out of googol raised to the googol power
Edit for explaination of chance: You have a 89 million/7 billion chance of two people having the same initials, 2/14400 chance to get the same time, and a 2/282 870 942 277 741 856 536 180 333 107 150 328 293 127 731 985 672 134 721 536 000 000 000 000 000 chance to get a scramble similar to the other. Totaling up to a number one cannot simply comprehend

 

[cuberswoop]

This is INSANE! I can't believe this happened to me ahahhaha. Please like the video and subscribe for more content!

I call sorcerey.

 

[ElyasCubing]

ahhahaahah yess LOL

 

[DuckubingCuber347]

Naw. I think some insane probability has come up. Probably a very low chance of ever happening again, like 1 out of googol raised to the googol power
Edit for explaination of chance: You have a 89 million/7 billion chance of two people having the same initials, 2/14400 chance to get the same time, and a 2/282 870 942 277 741 856 536 180 333 107 150 328 293 127 731 985 672 134 721 536 000 000 000 000 000 chance to get a scramble similar to the other. Totaling up to a number one cannot simply comprehend

I think you underestimate the power of googol.

10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

This is a googol, one followed by exactly one hundred zeros. The number you posted is significantly smaller than this and isn't even comparable. Please don't make up claims that aren't even remotely believable, and never use false information with my favorite number. (*sigh* wait until he hears about Fish Number 7)

 

[Garf]

I think you underestimate the power of googol.

10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

This is a googol, one followed by exactly one hundred zeros. The number you posted is significantly smaller than this and isn't even comparable. Please don't make up claims that aren't even remotely believable, and never use false information with my favorite number. (*sigh* wait until he hears about Fish Number 7)

I know that googol is. And okay, maybe the number wasn't accurate. I was just stating stuff to make myself to seem smart. I know the number is remotely bigger.

 

[qwr]

The probability is not correct. It assumes a uniform distribution over numbers which is clearly not correct - most people have about normally distributed times. For example, if you average about 10 seconds, most of your times will be around 9-11 seconds with fewer times slower or faster. Also your solve times aren't really independent I would think.
The same applies for initials - some initials are much more common than others. The end of the alphabet is usually all East Asian names and some letters are just uncommon.

 

[abunickabhi]

This is INSANE! I can't believe this happened to me ahahhaha. Please like the video and subscribe for more content!

Insane indeed

 

[OtterCuber]

The probability is not correct. It assumes a uniform distribution over numbers which is clearly not correct - most people have about normally distributed times. For example, if you average about 10 seconds, most of your times will be around 9-11 seconds with fewer times slower or faster. Also your solve times aren't really independent I would think.
The same applies for initials - some initials are much more common than others. The end of the alphabet is usually all East Asian names and some letters are just uncommon.

These are good points. I looked at the WCA data, and 5x5 data do not appear to be normal.





Elyas's 5x5 times are also right-skewed:

8 | 5888
9 | 01455667
10 | 23345
11 | 138
12 | 288
13 |
14 | 19
15 | 346
16 | 07

 

[qwr]

These are good points. I looked at the WCA data, and 5x5 data do not appear to be normal.

View attachment 18403

View attachment 18404

Elyas's 5x5 times are also right-skewed:

8 | 5888
9 | 01455667
10 | 23345
11 | 138
12 | 288
13 |
14 | 19
15 | 346
16 | 07

Do those include how people improve over time? For example, first comps you are slower and you improve quickly at the start, giving a long tail. Also long tail is due to people who don't solve seriously and maybe have only been to one comp.

When I say normally distributed I mean if you do a cstimer ao100 session and look at the leaf and stem plot it'll be about normally distributed.

 

[OtterCuber]

Do those include how people improve over time? For example, first comps you are slower and you improve quickly at the start, giving a long tail. Also long tail is due to people who don't solve seriously and maybe have only been to one comp.

When I say normally distributed I mean if you do a cstimer ao100 session and look at the leaf and stem plot it'll be about normally distributed.

If we were to actually calculate the probability of two times being exactly the same, we would have to take time/improvement into consideration. However, for back-to-back solves, you're right that we can assume that they are randomly drawn from a normal distribution.