I'm not convinced. If there are N+1 targets without swap, where N is even, you will have either N or N+2 if you swap instead. Intuitively the odds would be 50/50 and I'm sure I've seen that confirmed mathematically somewhere. So the average is still N+1 targets.
If you use vanilla M2, edge parity costs about the same as an edge target, so swapping hasn't bought you much on average. Best case is that your standard deviation goes up and you get a few slightly faster singles as well as a few slower ones, which is arguably worthwhile for an event ranked by single. That assumes it doesn't cost you any extra thinking time to swap.
If you're a faster solver and use full edge comms, you're more likely to see an advantage on average because the cost of parity is close to the cost of a full comm (pair).
IMHO, apart from the chance of slightly faster singles, the biggest advantage of swapping is that you can turn it to your advantage when you spot flipped or solved pieces in the UB or UL positions. Turning a flipped piece into a regular target to avoid a flip alg is worth more than avoiding a parity alg. Example: I have parity and plan to swap UL and UB. When tracing I spot that UB is already in the UL position but flipped. So I change my mind and don't swap, doing the parity alg instead, effectively trading a flip alg for a parity alg.
Also, for 5BLD swapping the UB and UL wings during memo when you have midge parity is a significant saving compared to swapping those wings with an alg.