LL Skip at a comp?

[adimare]

Since there are 45000 people who have done at least 1 solve at a comp, there have definitely been LL skips.

Not necessarily, but still a pretty safe bet.
Using CFOP with 0 edge control you still have a chance of ~5.5% of getting 0 LL skips in 45k solves.

 

[Bindedsa]

Not necessarily, but still a pretty safe bet.
Using CFOP with 0 edge control you still have a chance of ~5.5% of getting 0 LL skips in 45k solves.

Most people have done more than 1 solve, more than 2 even.

 

[not_kevin]

Most people have done more than 1 solve, more than 2 even.

No, he's saying that there's actually a ~5.5% chance that there are actually 0 LL skips in 45k solves. I was surprised by this, too, but given that the chance of an LL skip is 1 in 15552 (4! * 4! * 2^3 * 3^3 / (2 * 4) - factorials for permutations, powers for orientation, divide by 2 for permutation parity, divide by 4 for AUF), and (15551/15552)^45000 ~ 0.0554.

For the probability that there are no LL skips (assuming no last layer control of any sort) in n solves to be less than 5%, you'd need about 46.6k solves.

 

[Bindedsa]

No, he's saying that there's actually a ~5.5% chance that there are actually 0 LL skips in 45k solves. I was surprised by this, too, but given that the chance of an LL skip is 1 in 15552 (4! * 4! * 2^3 * 3^3 / (2 * 4) - factorials for permutations, powers for orientation, divide by 2 for permutation parity, divide by 4 for AUF), and (15551/15552)^45000 ~ 0.0554.

For the probability that there are no LL skips (assuming no last layer control of any sort) in n solves to be less than 5%, you'd need about 46.6k solves.

I understand that, I'm saying the 'definitely' comes from the fact practically everyone does more than 1 solve. The statistics is interesting.

 

[turtwig]

Given the number of people with averages and singles in 3x3-7x7, OH, and feet, I got a 0.0000000234% chance of no LL skips.

 

[not_kevin]

I understand that, I'm saying the 'definitely' comes from the fact practically everyone does more than 1 solve. The statistics is interesting.

Oh, oops - sorry, just skimming the thread, and made a bad assumption >.< Thanks for the clarification!

 

[AlexMaass]

Thought you meant official but then I checked your WCA results

yeah i was joking this solve never happened

 

[hamfaceman]

I had a friend who averages like 9 on 2x2, and he got 4 PLL skips and a last layer skip in one average. It ended up being like a 6 average. Makes me so upset that I didn't compete for 2x2 in that comp.

 

[Sajwo]

I had a friend who averages like 9 on 2x2, and he got 4 PLL skips and a last layer skip in one average. It ended up being like a 6 average. Makes me so upset that I didn't compete for 2x2 in that comp.

It's not so rare in 2x2.

I think that I'm one of luckiest guy up here in terms of amount of official skips haha. My first solve ever in comp was 12.6x with PLL skip (average >17), I got official 13.3x OH solve with PLL skip (average >20), official 6.8x with LL skip on 3x3 (average >10) and last week I got 2 PLL skips and one OLL skip in one round of 5x5. Ended up being 1:33 average, a little bit faster that my home average.

 

[Jaysammey777]

Given the number of people with averages and singles in 3x3-7x7, OH, and feet, I got a 0.0000000234% chance of no LL skips.

But what about people who don't have an ll, i.e. They use roux

 

[asacuber]

OMG I got a LL skip at my 1st comp!!!!
But that was while practicing OH with handmade scrambles

 

[Mikel]

I got an LL skip on the 3rd attempt of 3x3 round 2 at MCC Alpha 2016 yesterday. It was an 8.96! I dropped my official PB single from 11.14.

 

[G2013]

I got an LL skip on the 3rd attempt of 3x3 round 2 at MCC Alpha 2016 yesterday. It was an 8.96! I dropped my official PB single from 11.14.

Brandon why don't you send me some of those good vibes? ;D