Sebastiano Tronto's 16 move single is the 5th longest lasting record in the history WCA

[OtaMota]

Minh Thai's 22.95 in the 80s is not listed in the picture as the WCA was not made yet.

 

[Cubinginatree]

View attachment 27067

Minh Thai's 22.95 in the 80s is not listed in the picture as the WCA was not made yet.

The question is… will it ever be beaten. And if so, when?
I think for the next 3 years it won’t be beaten.

 

[An Animating Cuber]

The question is… will it ever be beaten. And if so, when?
I think for the next 3 years it won’t be beaten.

Probably not, I think there’s a good chance someone ties it but findable 15 movers are so rare you’ll virtually never see them

 

[OtaMota]

Cool thing is that in 1 month, if unbroken, the 16 move single will last longer than Feliks's 6.88 OH. TBH, it has a short timeframe to get up to second longest lasting.

 

[fes_77]

Congrats to @porkynator for this insane wr!

 

[TheSilverBeluga]

Honestly the craziest part about it to me is that it’s still untied.

 

[espeed]

I remember a similar post. Someone quoted Jayden McNeill (I think) and he said there were like two 15 movers in the history of FMC and only one had a somewhat findable solution (scrambles are public after comps)

 

[Billabob]

I remember a similar post. Someone quoted Jayden McNeill (I think) and he said there were like two 15 movers in the history of FMC and only one had a somewhat findable solution (scrambles are public after comps)

Yep, here: https://www.speedsolving.com/thread...bles-in-past-competitions.89832/#post-1536022

 

[abunickabhi]

View attachment 27067

Minh Thai's 22.95 in the 80s is not listed in the picture as the WCA was not made yet.

FMC has so little space for beating the record, as we need integer values, and also hope that the optimal solution is <16.

 

[ProStar]

Honestly the craziest part about it to me is that it’s still untied.

Even a 16 is crazy; the fact that Sebastiano found one when he did was absurd

 

[Spencer131]

It will be pretty difficult to beat 16. The odds of getting a scramble that can be solved in 15 moves or fewer is ~0.226%

You can find that by adding all the probabilities for Moves 0 through Moves 15

And even if you get such a scramble, you have to find the optimal solution

Moves	Count	Probability
0	1	2.2884E-20​
1	18	4.1191E-19​
2	243	5.5608E-18​
3	3,240	7.4144E-17​
4	43,239	9.8948E-16​
5	574,908	1.3156E-14​
6	7,618,438	1.7434E-13​
7	100,803,036	2.3068E-12​
8	1,332,343,288	3.0489E-11​
9	17,596,479,795	4.0268E-10​
10	232,248,063,316	5.3147E-09​
11	3,063,288,809,012	7.01E-08​
12	40,374,425,656,248	9.2392E-07​
13	531,653,418,284,628	1.2166E-05​
14	6,989,320,578,825,350	0.00015994​
15	91,365,146,187,124,300	0.00209079​
16	1,100,000,000,000,000,000	0.02517224​
17	12,000,000,000,000,000,000	0.27460627​
18	29,000,000,000,000,000,000	0.66363181​
19	1,500,000,000,000,000,000	0.03432578​
20	490,000,000	1.1213E-11​

 

[OtaMota]

2019 was crazy for FMC. At the beginning, the WR single was an 18, then there were two 17s and a 16. Since then, only one more 17 has been found in 2021. TBH, I think even someone getting a 17 would be big news at this point.