Predict the amount of participants by 2010..?

[Neutrals01]

Just now I somehow browsed WCA to search the total amount of participants that attended official competition for 3x3 average.. I found out that the number is 2800+.. I remembered few months ago when I started cubing time...if not mistaken the number was 2000~2100+..

An increment of almost 40% compared to 4 months ago.. 700+ participants increased in 4 months... and cubing is getting more and more popular... now 4 months = extra 700 ppl... 1~2 years later? 4 months = extra 1500 ppl?

4 months ago I noticed that sub 15 average able to get around top 30~40+ ranking... now sub 15 cant even get top 100..

I think the amount of ppl that have sub 30 average unofficially is at least 3 to 4 times more than the current official number...

So I predict there would be up to 5000~6000+ ppl or even more..that participate in official competition by 2010.. what do you guys think?

 

[AvGalen]

5000 people by the end of 2010 seems very reasonable. I remember when there was 1 competition a month in Europe and we all thought that was quite a lot

1 year ago I was nr. 7 in the world for multi-blind with 2/2 in 27 minutes

 

[Neutrals01]

I guess organizing a cube competition is much easier than organizing any other competitions or events... just need stackmats...displays...a place to hold the competition...some volunteers..and also approval from WCA other competitions example chess or so...need to prepare lots of chess sets, while cubing..everyone can bring their own cubes

The rapid increment of popularity in cubing I think is because of competitions... with competitions..ppl tend to train more and more just to compete and get a good rank.. unlike 10~20 years ago...most ppl just cube for fun, because they ain't much competitions to keep cubers to train a lot..

 

[AvGalen]

10-20 years people trained just as much as people do now. One of the biggest differences between then and now is that internet helps you find nice algs. 10-20 years ago people discovered most algs that are available to everyone right now.

 

[Rabid]

10-20 years people trained just as much as people do now. One of the biggest differences between then and now is that internet helps you find nice algs. 10-20 years ago people discovered most algs that are available to everyone right now.

The difference is the modern age allows for a virtual community. Youtube and Forums allow for collaborations and peer encouragement without border restrictions.

Iron Sharpens Iron.

 

[mrbiggs]

10-20 years people trained just as much as people do now. One of the biggest differences between then and now is that internet helps you find nice algs. 10-20 years ago people discovered most algs that are available to everyone right now.

And the fact that a personal computer can find 10 or so versions of any given alg in a few seconds from which the user can pick the most finger-friendly doesn't hurt either.

Nor does the increased number of types of cubes and knowledge about how to get them to spin faster, cut corners better, and lock up less.

 

[DavidWoner]

I think the community is the biggest part of the increased rate of sub-20 and sub-15 cubers. Knowing someone who is faster than you definitely helps. I was the only "fast" cuber i knew for the first few months I cubed, and I got down to about 40 sec avg with LBL, with no intention of switching. then when one of my friends started to catch up at an alarming rate, I decided to get off my lazy rear and learn Fridrich F2l. and of course I taught it to my friend and he kept dropping rapidly as well.

I think the increasing number of cubers has something to do with the fact that the negative social stigma surrounding cubers is starting to fade. When people realize that they can cube and still be cool, they want to learn. Back in KC I got 2-3 people serious enough to go to the Kansas City Open, if it ever occurs(hmm i need to message waris about this...). and right now I am trying to get 3 people ready for the Drexel Open next month.

i agree with arnuad, 4000 in 1-2 is not at all unlikely.