Overland Park Open 2017

[Draranor]

I'm so glad this comp has 4x4, I was hoping someone would organise one with it before the cutoff for nats, so I can try to get a qualifying time. Also, if you need anymore staff (judges, scramblers, etc.), I'd be more than happy to help out

 

[aybuck37]

I'm so glad this comp has 4x4, I was hoping someone would organise one with it before the cutoff for nats, so I can try to get a qualifying time. Also, if you need anymore staff (judges, scramblers, etc.), I'd be more than happy to help out

Can't wait to see you there!

 

[JustinTimeCuber]

I think I'm gonna make a Pick 'Em™®© for this once it's full

 

[JustinTimeCuber]

75% full, so I get to do my statsies soon. Also, the comp's a month from today, really looking forward!

 

[Draranor]

Only 10 more spots til it's filled up! Looking forward to it

 

[WACWCA]

It's a 15 day walk for me, when should I leave?

 

[Tycubing]

It's a 15 day walk for me, when should I leave?

now

 

[biscuit]

It's a 15 day walk for me, when should I leave?

You can stay at my house. But you'll have to walk from there.

 

[Tycubing]

Well, Chris and Josh signed up! but... there goes my podium for skewb

 

[Cale S]

Starting to look like I might not go...
so many other closer comps

 

[biscuit]

Well, Chris and Josh signed up! but... there goes my podium for skewb

I believe that Chris just signed up in case he can go. He's no 100% I don't think.

 

[JustinTimeCuber]

If Chris doesn't go I'm almost guaranteed to podium either 2x2 or 3x3, probably both. He still should go though, he's a cool guy, I'll just make sure to do well

So once this is full I'm going to do a simulation for all people who have been to a comp before. How it will work is:
1) Collect all their times from (up to) their last 3 competitions.
2) Select a random competition but weight the competitions by 1/[days since comp*number of valid solves at comp] (A competition 4 weeks ago with 14 valid solves (excl. a DNF) would have a weight of 1/392)
3) Select a random solve from that competition, add or subtract 3% of the time, 1% chance of DNF
4) Repeat steps 2-3 five times
5) Repeat steps 1-4 for each competitor
6) Sort by average
7) Re-do with only second round peeps (top 24)
8) Sort by average again
9) Re-do with only finals peeps (top 12)
10) Sort by average again
11) Repeat lots of times and collect statistics along the way
12) Post boring and/or flawed statistics to the forum

 

[aybuck37]

If Chris doesn't go I'm almost guaranteed to podium either 2x2 or 3x3, probably both. He still should go though, he's a cool guy, I'll just make sure to do well

So once this is full I'm going to do a simulation for all people who have been to a comp before. How it will work is:
1) Collect all their times from (up to) their last 3 competitions.
2) Select a random competition but weight the competitions by 1/[days since comp*number of valid solves at comp] (A competition 4 weeks ago with 14 valid solves (excl. a DNF) would have a weight of 1/392)
3) Select a random solve from that competition, add or subtract 3% of the time, 1% chance of DNF
4) Repeat steps 2-3 five times
5) Repeat steps 1-4 for each competitor
6) Sort by average
7) Re-do with only second round peeps (top 24)
8) Sort by average again
9) Re-do with only finals peeps (top 12)
10) Sort by average again
11) Repeat lots of times and collect statistics along the way
12) Post boring and/or flawed statistics to the forum

woah. tell me how i do in the simulation

 

[Draranor]

It would be awesome if Chris is able to go. If he's not though, I might be able to make top 5 at least

 

[Tycubing]

Well, Chris is sure he is able to go.

 

[biscuit]

If Chris doesn't go I'm almost guaranteed to podium either 2x2 or 3x3, probably both. He still should go though, he's a cool guy, I'll just make sure to do well

So once this is full I'm going to do a simulation for all people who have been to a comp before. How it will work is:
1) Collect all their times from (up to) their last 3 competitions.
2) Select a random competition but weight the competitions by 1/[days since comp*number of valid solves at comp] (A competition 4 weeks ago with 14 valid solves (excl. a DNF) would have a weight of 1/392)
3) Select a random solve from that competition, add or subtract 3% of the time, 1% chance of DNF
4) Repeat steps 2-3 five times
5) Repeat steps 1-4 for each competitor
6) Sort by average
7) Re-do with only second round peeps (top 24)
8) Sort by average again
9) Re-do with only finals peeps (top 12)
10) Sort by average again
11) Repeat lots of times and collect statistics along the way
12) Post boring and/or flawed statistics to the forum

Well, Chris is sure he is able to go.

RIP Justin's podiums

I'm interested in this simulation thing. How are you doing it? I.E are you using custom functions in excel/google docs, or coding in a programming language? If so, which one? Lastly, would you be willing to share the code?

Now for questions on how it'll work. Will you be repeating it many times and averaging the results (as they do for sports simulations)? Do you mean add/subtract a straight 3%? I feel like add/subtract 0-3% is a better way to do it.

I'd love to review some code for you if you'd like.

 

[JustinTimeCuber]

RIP Justin's podiums

of course not!

I'm interested in this simulation thing. How are you doing it? I.E are you using custom functions in excel/google docs, or coding in a programming language?

Programming language, although a spreadsheet would be cool if I could figure that out

If so, which one?

Processing because it's simple enough for my little brain to comprehend

Lastly, would you be willing to share the code?

Sure, it's not like it'd be any good

Now for questions on how it'll work. Will you be repeating it many times and averaging the results (as they do for sports simulations)?

Yeah.

Do you mean add/subtract a straight 3%? I feel like add/subtract 0-3% is a better way to do it.

Yeah, basically do time*random(0.9709, 1.03)

I'd love to review some code for you if you'd like.

I'll post the "draft" once I do it, probably by this weekend.

 

[JustinTimeCuber]

Am I the only one here that wants fivethirtyeight to make an interactive for the Rubik's Cube World Championship or US Nats? That'd be so cool.

 

[AlphaSheep]

3) Select a random solve from that competition, add or subtract 3% of the time, 1% chance of DNF

Step 2 is fine because it increases the weighting of mere recent comps. For step 3, it's probably better to generate a random number from a normal distribution with the same mean and standard deviation as the solves from that comp.

 

[JustinTimeCuber]

Step 2 is fine because it increases the weighting of mere recent comps. For step 3, it's probably better to generate a random number from a normal distribution with the same mean and standard deviation as the solves from that comp.

I'll figure that out if I can get the núb approach to work.