next WR lucky - probability ?

[MalusDB]

Unrelated: those old posts are lolcake

Indeed. The talk about the sub 10 barrier just seems so... silly now lol.

Just goes to show HOW quickly cubing is still growing. Maybe with an optimised version of the new LL that Kir is proposing there might be even faster times possible than we could imagine. Feliks is awesome and stuff but it feels we have yet to have a true cubing "genius" really take speedoslving seriously enough to get down that far. Theres a chance there's be someone who can no-life it and get rediculous times (like sub 6 average) between now and the next 50 years. Then again, maybe not. It's an exciting time to be alive and cubing

 

[Stefan]

Unrelated: those old posts are lolcake

Indeed. The talk about the sub 10 barrier just seems so... silly now lol.

I don't quite see why, though. So why?

Nobody was like "ZOMG 9.77 !!1!11". Was a serious attempt to estimate the probability that the next world record will be lucky, and the same question and can be asked and the same solutions might be applicable to today's world record(s). Lucky solves are more likely to be records, but non-lucky solves are more likely. Which wins? I'm still interested in the question, and maybe today with probably way more training statistics than back then, we can find a good answer.

So, does anybody have some useful statistics for this lying around, number of recent sub-5.66 solves and what percentage were lucky? Or a different idea of how to estimate this?

 

[Dene]

A selection of pretty funny quotes (whether accurate or not) given how things have changed in 5 years:

People get a little over 10.xx second non-luckly solves... one lucky of those will break it by a good second, at least I think so. Or maybe someone who solves with another method will break it, that would be something.

There are a few people who can solve sub-10 non-lucky somewhat consistently... The next WR will probably be lucky, but there's a possibility it will be broken by a non-lucky solve.

I've never been close to being sub 10

And also this one

The WR will be broken again, that is for sure!

Joel