US Nationals 2011

If I only had a chance to win one event (which I don't) then I wouldn't flip. If I could win 2+ then I wouldn't flip on the first but would probably flip on all the ones afterwards.
 
I'm not a gambler, so I'd take the $500 now. Any true gambler would take the coin flip, though, since you average $600 on the deal.

In Vegas, the $600 might still be taken by a serious gambler, since the odds are probably good enough that they're in your favor (to beat the $500 automatic). (I'm not sure about that, though - I don't know how the odds stack up on a roulette wheel in Vegas.) But I'd guess you'd cut some people out who have less gambling blood in them.

This is a rare scenario you're creating, though - one where gambling actually favors the gambler.

Edit: Interesting question - what would be my breaking point? A part of me would want to say I'd never flip because I'd want to be a good example to my kids. But at some point it would become stupid not to do the flip. (A true gambler would say that happens at $500.01. :))
 
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Mike, I think I disagree with you :P Since the coin flip is 50/50, and the payout is $600, then really you're averaging $300. This is less than if you were to just take the money. I'd say to make even money, it'd have to be $1,000. I'd still want More than that though, probably 2k+.
 
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Tyson said:
Certainly there's some point where you would flip if I changed the numbers. Such as $500 now, or $2,000 on a coin flip.
Click to expand...

Firstly, it would depend on how much I needed the money. At the moment, $500 would be nice but not life changing. $2,000 is not worth the gamble for me. $5,000 would be, I think.
 
You're missing the point, he didn't specify heads or tales. He said lands one way, and lands the other way. And you may be talking about no standard coin regulations in the WCA for betting...but before you make a claim like that (without specifying), you should research the Gaming Commission (either the Federal or your state's, might also be referred to as the Gaming Board instead of commision).
 
Well, not sure what exactly "true gambler" means. Mike, are you saying a "true gambler" will make a decision based only on EV?

Maybe the more interesting way to do this is...

$500 for sure now
$1,000 if you solve the next cube under your winning average in the final round. That, of course, might adversely select against the competitor since their winning average is probably going to be a good average. And I would imagine that a single solve with $1k riding on it might produce inordinate amounts of pressure.

The real key though, is to do this in Vegas, and that way the organizational team is not at risk for paying out double, but instead, is only paying $100 for the entertainment of watching someone bet all his winnings.
 
Tyson said:
$500 for sure now
$1,000 if you solve the next cube under your winning average in the final round. That, of course, might adversely select against the competitor since their winning average is probably going to be a good average. And I would imagine that a single solve with $1k riding on it might produce inordinate amounts of pressure
Click to expand...

Definitely not. Monetary incentive has a negative impact on skill-based performances.
 
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