Seriously… when are we getting sub-2?

[Roux]

Earlier this year, we saw Teodor get a 2.76, which we had been waiting for since sub-4.
But so soon after a wave of 2s solves just poured into the speedcubing scene.
Bofan’s failed wr and finally… 2.51 by Xuanyi Geng. When do you think sub 2 will be surpassed?

 

[Sub 20 Cuber]

I feel like it’s gonna be in January 2027, it feels like it’s gonna be next year but at the same time it doesn’t

 

[iguana]

It could happen tomorrow - it doesn't even need to be someone like Xuanyi or Yiheng. What with the amount of young Chinese solvers who are becoming more and more capable of sub-2 F2Ls, and the fact that ZBLS increases the chance of a last layer skip from 1 in 15552 to 1 in just under 2000, sub-2 is not just possible, but inevitable.

 

[Martyt7777]

Probably 2027

 

[Sub 20 Cuber]

Probably 2027

Yeah it’s definitely gonna be 2027, there is a chance tho that it’s gonna in 2028

 

[Michael Wimberly]

I’m gonna say 70% chance it’s gonna be 2027, 30% chance it’s gonna be 2028. That’s what I think.

 

[iguana]

Probably 2027

Yeah it’s definitely gonna be 2027, there is a chance tho that it’s gonna in 2028

I’m gonna say 70% chance it’s gonna be 2027, 30% chance it’s gonna be 2028. That’s what I think.

I honestly think there's like a 20% chance that it's 2026, it's by no means impossible.

 

[ILCubing]

Simple answer: never

 

[Sub 20 Cuber]

Simple answer: never

lololol

 

[Roux]

It could happen tomorrow - it doesn't even need to be someone like Xuanyi or Yiheng. What with the amount of young Chinese solvers who are becoming more and more capable of sub-2 F2Ls, and the fact that ZBLS increases the chance of a last layer skip from 1 in 15552 to 1 in just under 2000, sub-2 is not just possible, but inevitable.

that is a very interesting perspective that i hadn’t considered! i really didn’t think about how much more likely skips are with ZB, and to be fair with the amount of young chinese ZB users could just get the right scramble and hit it tomorrow

 

[That0newe1rdo]

Logically, we can expect a sub 2 in 2027.

Realistically, never. Unless an extremely efficient method is created (talking like 20-35 moves on avg) and someone with insane tps (like 15+) uses it, I genuinely think it will never happen.

I know people said the same about sub 3, but 1 second is much longer when talking about 2s compared to 3s.

 

[BenChristman1]

Using some relatively basic math and fitting an exponential regression to the previous 4 WR singles, we can expect a sub-2 by August 2028. Using the same calculations since the first sub-5 (Lucas Etter in 2015), it would be expected in August 2031, which doesn't seem very realistic. Using those same calculations for all previous WR singles (leaving out 1982), sub-2 should've already happened in May 2024, which is also not very realistic, but in the opposite direction. If you include the 1982 record, sub-2 will happen in October 2043, which jumps back to being unrealistic in the same way as measuring from the first sub-5.

Now, if you change all that to a linear regression and measure from Erik Akkersdijk's 7.08 in July 2008, sub-2 will happen in May 2028. Measuring from Mats Valk's 5.55 in May 2013, sub-2 will happen in May 2029. Measuring from Yiheng Wang's 3.08 in February of last year, sub-2 will happen in April 2028.

I could go through and average out the number of days from now sub-2 will be broken by measuring while including different WRs since the very first one, but that's a lot of work.

TL;DR, sub-2 could happen literally whenever, but I would wager early to mid 2028.

(I'd love if somebody who's better at math than me could share a better way to predict this)

 

[pi=3.14]

August 16, 2027

 

[DuckDecoys]

Simple answer: never

It is very likely that it will happen next year, but in the next 15 years it has a 99.99999999 chance of happening.

 

[Turns_And_Twists2024]

Seems unlikley, i think it should happen before 2030 though

 

[iguana]

Logically, we can expect a sub 2 in 2027.

Realistically, never. Unless an extremely efficient method is created (talking like 20-35 moves on avg) and someone with insane tps (like 15+) uses it, I genuinely think it will never happen.

I know people said the same about sub 3, but 1 second is much longer when talking about 2s compared to 3s.

I appreciate that Yiheng doesn't use ZB, but he has still hit over 15 TPS in comp, and if Xuanyi and other ZB users can get their recog down even more than they already have, they may be able to follow suit. Also, world records do tend to be extremely efficient - Xuanyi's is 32 moves, and Teodor's was 29.

 

[Drewe]

November 4th, 2034

 

[Sub 20 Cuber]

November 4th, 2034

lol