Where do you see cubing 10 years from now?

[Dane man]

Simple question. What do you see in the future of speedcubing? Ten years from now, what will it look like? What will the world records be? What will be the more popular methods?


I think Roux will catch up a lot to CFOP in popularity. I think the WR for 3x3 will be somewhere in the 4-5 second range (unless someone gets crazy lucky, in which case 3.5-4). I think that cubing will continue to grow in popularity due to it's intrinsic value as a puzzle. I see cubes getting a tad more expensive (but not much) for a short period of time (2-3 years or so), then dropping in price. I also see quite a few more things being computationally discovered about the cube.

What do you see?

 

[Please Dont Ask]

WR - 3 sec
Price - 40$ for rubiks brand

 

[tx789]

If it continues to grow then there will be a lot more speedcubers around. WRs will have plateaued, and new events may have been added. Cubes may be way better than they are now, if so Moyu won't be the company who makes all the "best" speedcubes. 10 years is a lot of time. However it could become more unpopular if world records become hard to beat, though that is unlikely. By this point the WCA may have added fastest solve and average to their website for each calendar year, you can already add that filter. But what I mean is that the fastest solve of the year could be much, much more significant. The possibilities are endless. We will just have to wait 10 years to see. I also think a lot of people currently on the forum may have either completely lost interest in cubing, or cube a bit, but not much. On topic of cube price, I'd expect to see the prices higher due to inflation. There may be a lot more speedcubes around. V-Cubes could have been forgotten which is likely to be unlikely. Regardless they will of released up to 11x11 (which I expect be in 2017 if they continue releasing a cube a year). Also I doubt anyone who's fast today will be fast in 10 years. There is next to no chance. People loss interest, or real life commitments get in the way and even both. Most speedcubers are teens; in 2024 they will be in their twenties. I think there will be a lot more older speedcubers. Some of which, if most will be people who have been speedcubing since their teens some of which who are speedcubing now.

A good comparison is what was speedcubing like in 2004.

Spoiler

I guess that's some of what I have to say. This post rambles on a bit.

 

[Stefan]

Made this graphic. I had noticed that Germany is getting less active, so it's nice for me to see that at least the worldwide trend is still very much upwards.

By this point the WCA may have added fastest solve and average to their website.

What do you mean? We have that already:
https://www.worldcubeassociation.org/results/regions.php

 

[tx789]

What do you mean? We have that already:
https://www.worldcubeassociation.org/results/regions.php

I meant a page like world records but for that paticular calendar year I reliae that filter exist but I added to the above post of mine.

 

[goodatthis]

(Some of) My WR predictions over the next 10 years:

(format is single/average, exception is MultiBLD, BigBLD)

3x3: sub 4/sub 5
4x4: sub 18/sub 21
5x5: sub 35/sub 39
6x6: sub 1:28/sub 1:35
7x7: sub 2:15/sub 2:30
3BLD: sub 15/sub 20
4BLD: 1:50ish
5BLD: 3:40ish
MBLD: 65 points
OH: sub 6/sub 8
WF: sub 18/ sub 21

Theres no point in adding small event predictions because those mostly rely on luck.

 

[ChickenWrap]

(Some of) My WR predictions over the next 10 years:

(format is single/average, exception is MultiBLD, BigBLD)

3x3: sub 4/sub 5
4x4: sub 18/sub 21
5x5: sub 35/sub 39
6x6: sub 1:28/sub 1:35
7x7: sub 2:15/sub 2:30
3BLD: sub 15/sub 20
4BLD: 1:50ish
5BLD: 3:40ish
MBLD: 65 points
OH: sub 6/sub 8
WF: sub 18/ sub 21

Theres no point in adding small event predictions because those mostly rely on luck.

These are ridiculous.

 

[Berd]

These are ridiculous.

10 years is a very long time...

 

[goodatthis]

These are ridiculous.

They are, but I think for big cubes especially the current WRs can be improved a lot. Some of these singles have already been done or are close to these times. (4BLD, 3x3, prepared 5x5, 3BLD, WF)

And as Berd said, 10 years is a very long time.

 

[CyanSandwich]

Maybe this can be a little time capsule of sorts.

Predictions for 2024.

(single/average)

2x2: 0.47/1.08
3x3: 3.76/5.00
4x4: 18.53/20.97
5x5: 37.86/43.22
6x6: 1:30.11/1:35.09
7x7: 2:04.95/2:19.10
3BLD: 15.98/19.55
4BLD: 1:36.50/1:49.90 (4BLD and 5BLD means might be ranked some day)
5BLD: 3:49.92/4:18.15
MBLD: 63 points (bonus: 64/65 in 58:55)
OH: 5.97/7.88
WF: 17.24/20.82 (unless it gets removed)
Pyra: 0.97/1.42
Mega: 31.64/37.99
Skewb: 0.99/1.60
Sq-1: 4.89/7.65
Clock: 3.98/4.88
FMC: 18/21.00

 

[obelisk477]

I think community interest will die down once records arent being broken every other day. Once the records no longer feel attainable because of that momentum, I think people will start to lose interest.

 

[maps600]

I think community interest will die down once records arent being broken every other day. Once the records no longer feel attainable because of that momentum, I think people will start to lose interest.

Unfortunately I have to say that I agree.

 

[guysensei1]

Unfortunately I have to say that I agree.

But with the addition of more events I'm sure it would be just about the same.

 

[maps600]

But with the addition of more events I'm sure it would be just about the same.

Yeah, that's a valid point as well. In addition, not all speedcubers are really going for WR.

 

[Rocky0701]

Yeah, that's a valid point as well. In addition, not all speedcubers are really going for WR.

Not many speedcubers are going for the world record now either. Heck, nobody has even come close to Feliks' 3x3 average, but there are many people speedcubing.

 

[rowehessler]

These are ridiculous.

I've been cubing almost 10 years, if i saw back then what the WRs are right now I would have thought it was impossible

 

[Tim Major]

I've been cubing almost 10 years, if i saw back then what the WRs are right now I would have thought it was impossible

There's ridiculous and there's physically impossible.

1:36 4bld? Ridiculous. 1.4 Pyraminx average? Impossible.

 

[Sajwo]

~Single/~Average


2x2: 0.40/1.10
3x3: 4.45/6.10
4x4: 18.00/21.00
5x5: 42.00/49.00
6x6: 1:35.00/1:42.00
7x7: 2:25.00/2:30.00
OH: 7.50/10.00
FM: 18/21
WF: 18.00/22.00
3BLD: 15.00/19.00
4BLD: 1:50.00/2:00.00
5BLD: 4:50.00/5:00.00
MBLD: 65
Megaminx: 35.00/40.00
Pyraminx: 1.00/2.00
Square-1: 6.96/10.21
Clock: 4.20/5.20
Skewb: 1.35/2.30

4BLD and 5BLD means of 3 will be added, new event will be added.
Top100 3x3 singles will be sub6.5, top40 3x3 averages will be sub8.
New Feliks will be revealed. (Maybe he's already training?)
Square-1 WRs will last forever.

 

[goodatthis]

Of course, some times will never be reached. They're impossible, obviously. Just like the sub 4 minute mile, the sub 10 100m, a marathon under 2:05, a woman ever even being able to run ultramarathons, and the list goes on of the records thought to be unobtainable.

[video=youtube_share;PXVnIgMKREw]http://youtu.be/PXVnIgMKREw[/video]

And the thing about cubing is that it is such a new "sport" that there is lots of room for improvement.

Also, what about the first world record being labeled as "very hard" to break?

 

[tseitsei]

I think community interest will die down once records arent being broken every other day. Once the records no longer feel attainable because of that momentum, I think people will start to lose interest.

I disagree.

In track&field sports records aren't broken that often anymore because they are so good already but still people are interested in that stuff.
When records become so good that they are rarely broken, stuff like winning world championships and doing "world leading" (best result for that calendar year) results become increasingly more important.

+I think that (most) people practise speedsolving because it's fun and not because of records anyway.