Rare Occurences

[4Chan]

8 times as much I believe.

 

[xbrandationx]

boxxy is the cancer.

 

[Zane_C]

Thanks kinch2002, so (1/36)^4=1/1,679,616 probability of 4 PBL skips in a row (exluding AUF).
THAT'S RARE!

That's not the probaility of getting 4 PBL skips in a row, that's the probability of doing exactly 4 solves and getting PBL skips in all of them.

And as far as I know 4 PBL skips in exactly 4 solves is 4 PBL skips in a row.
I think I may of misunderstood you.

 

[adimare]

Thanks kinch2002, so (1/36)^4=1/1,679,616 probability of 4 PBL skips in a row (exluding AUF).
THAT'S RARE!

That's not the probaility of getting 4 PBL skips in a row, that's the probability of doing exactly 4 solves and getting PBL skips in all of them.

And as far as I know 4 PBL skips in exactly 4 solves is 4 PBL skips in a row.
I think I may of misunderstood you.

Let's replace the event of solving the cube with flipping a coin. The probability of flipping 3 heads in a row if I flip the coin thrice is \( \frac{1}{8} \). However, if I've been flipping a coin all day and at some point witness 3 heads in a row, it doesn't mean anything to go in a coin flipping forum and say that I witnessed an event that had a \( \frac{1}{8} \) probability of occurring. Even if I only flipped the coin a total of 5 times, the chances of witnessing 3 heads in a row increase to \( \frac{3}{16} \). The amount of throws one would expect to have to throw to witness 3 heads in a row is just 14.

You solve the 2x2x2 a bunch of times during the day, you get a bunch of PBL skips, after each one of those you encounter, the chances that the next three are also gonna be PBL skips are \( \frac{1}{46,656} \). Incredibly rare of course! But nothing compared to \( \frac{1}{1,679,616} \).

 

[Zane_C]

Thanks, your very good at probability.

 

[adimare]

Thanks, your very good at probability.

Thanks! I was just looking for an excuse to try out LaTeX! 4 PBLs in a row is freaking crazy no matter what!