Probability of last step for Ortega (2x2)

[hooboork]

Can anyone explain me what is probability to get each case for last step of Ortega? There are 6 cases (first one is solved cube, five are with algs.) and I hardly think that solved case (or R2 F2 R2) is as frequently as the other cases.

 

[qqwref]

For each layer the chance of an adjacent swap is 4/6, the chance of an opposite swap is 1/6, and the chance of solved is 1/6.

So the probabilities are
solved/solved - 1/36
solved/adjacent - 8/36
solved/opposite - 2/36
adjacent/adjacent - 16/36
adjacent/opposite - 8/36
opposite/opposite - 1/36