2014 Predictions

[Coolster01]

2x2 single by Rami Sbahi or Lucas Etter

I'm gonna admit it, you made me laugh. xD

 

[CyanSandwich]

Red = Can't happen
Green = Can happen

I'll just guess the world records.

2x2 - Single stays, 1.60 average
3x3 - 5.37 single, 6.49 average
4x4 - 23.33 single, 28.89 average
5x5 - 49.21 single, 54.01 average
6x6 - Single stays, average stays
7x7 - 2:39.08 single, 2:50.02 mean
OH - Single stays, 12.40 average
Feet - 26.99 single, 30.01 mean
FMC - No change
Mega - 40.40 single, 47.11 average
Pyra - Single stays, 2.75 average
Sq1 - Single stays, 11.05 average
Clock - Both stay
Skewb - 2.35 single, 4.95 average
3BLD - 22.98 single, 27.85 mean
4BLD - 2:26.56
5BLD - 5:44.45
MBLD - 50/50

Note: I didn't know there was FMC mean back then, so I only meant single.

Well congrats people on outdoing a lot of my predictions. Also my skewb single wasn't too far off (so far)

 

[IRNjuggle28]

Pyra world record is going down if Drew gets a couple comps with Pyra.
2x2 world record if Chris ever gets his **** together.

 

[SolveThatCube]

I definitely think there will be a sub-3.8 Skewb WR avg by the end of the year.

 

[Sajwo]

Little update:

2x2 - WR Average by Lucas or Rami (~1.62)
3x3 -
4x4 -
5x5 - WR Average by Feliks (~54)
6x6 -
7x7 -
OH -
Feet - WR Average by Jakub (~30)
FMC -
Mega -
Pyra - WR Average by Drew (~2.75)
Sq1 -
Clock -
Skewb - WR Single (1.xx) by ??? and WR Average by Jonatan (~3.90)
3BLD - WR Single by Maskow (~22) and WR Average by Kaijun (~27)
4BLD -
5BLD -
MBLD -

 

[guysensei1]

Little update:


5x5 - WR Average by Feliks (~1:54)

Umm? Made a mistake?

 

[Sajwo]

Yup, sorry for that

 

[TDM]

3x3 single but sup-5 by Mats/Feliks - if Mats, OLL skip and F perm, if Feliks PLL skip
Maskow said he was going to attempt 50 cubes at Euro 2014
FMC sub-20?

My only predictions to have not yet happened are these, and all are still possible, except Maskow wasn't at Euros. He could still get 50 points at another comp though. And I don't know why I ever thought Mats would get WR with an F perm. Probably going to be OLL skip U/T/J perm.

 

[CiaranBeahan]

I still think 7x7 average will be broken again, either by Feliks, maybe Kevin(If he goes to a comp by the end of the year) or Mattia Furlan(If he ever gets good at edges).
Pyra average is a real possibility and so is skewb average.

 

[Coolster01]

Yeah, the two events I'm most sure about going down are pyra.'t and skewb average:

Pyraminx: Drew Brads will get down to 2.43 avg5
Skewb: Jonatan 3.78 avg5
If 2x2 WR gets broken, I think Chris ill make a huge leap and pull a 1.54 average (still not as good as Lucas's if he didn't +2 )

 

[Coolster01]

Yeah, the two events I'm most sure about going down are pyra.'t and skewb average:

Pyraminx: Drew Brads will get down to 2.43 avg5
Skewb: Jonatan 3.78 avg5
If 2x2 WR gets broken, I think Chris will make a huge leap and pull a 1.54 average (still not as good as Lucas's if he didn't +2 )

 

[IRNjuggle28]

If Kevin had kept cubing enough to improve, he would've beaten the 7x7 world record average. There was a fairly long stretch of time where he was the best in the world at 7x7 and he didn't have any comps. Now, I think he pretty much stopped practicing and won't beat anything.

 

[DuffyEdge]

2x2 - Chris will fail to get a WR. His best this year will be 1.76, but he will get a 1.07 PB single.

I was pretty close, right Chris?

 

[Sajwo]

2014 is coming to the end, most wrs surpassed my predictions a lot.

I'd like to share with you my list of world records broken this year under this link.

Spoiler

Some translations:

Poprawa o - improved by
Od początku roku x zawodników ustanowiło y rekordy świata - Since the beginning of the year x competitors set y world records
Najwięcej rekordów świata ustanowił x (7) - X set the most world records (7)
Średnio jeden WR na x dnia - One WR per x days in average
I'll skip the translations of the months, its easy to guess

Hope we'll se more breathtaking results in the next 2 weeks

 

[XTowncuber]

Forgot to mention, I'm predicting a sub 4 lol skewb single.

This is the funniest thing I have ever read. (although technically it came true)

Pyra - single stays, 2.55 +-.1 drew

nailed it

2x2 - Single stays, 1.60 average
MBLD - 50/50

not bad either, although 50/50 is still unofficial

 

[Randomno]

ShengShou will release an 11x11 and people will forget Yuxin forever.

A cuboid will be added to WCA puzzles.

I have ~4.5 billion years to try and get closer than this, assuming immortality is invented within my lifespan.

 

[Iggy]

Sub 5 3x3 single by Faz
Sub 50 5x5 single by Faz
3BLD WR by Maskow
Feet WR single by Gabriel Campanha
Pyra WR average by Drew
Megaminx WR average by Simon Westlund
Big BLD WRs by Ollie
OH WR average by Antoine

Everything was right except the 3x3 single and the megaminx average

 

[Stefan]

I'd like to share with you my list of world records broken this year under this link.

Nice one, though let me add a more compact display of just the averages, ordered by % dropped.

Spoiler: WR average improvements 2014 so far

Using data from WCA_export538_20141212 and Stefan's WCA Data Tools.

[TABLE="class:grid,align:left"]
[TR][TD]Event[/TD][TD]2013[/TD][TD]2014 so far[/TD][TD]% dropped[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Pyraminx[/TD][TD="align:right"]2.96[/TD][TD="align:right"]2.56[/TD][TD="align:right"]13.51%[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Rubik's Clock[/TD][TD="align:right"]6.79[/TD][TD="align:right"]6.00[/TD][TD="align:right"]11.63%[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]4x4 Cube[/TD][TD="align:right"]29.17[/TD][TD="align:right"]26.03[/TD][TD="align:right"]10.76%[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Megaminx[/TD][TD="align:right"]47.82[/TD][TD="align:right"]42.89[/TD][TD="align:right"]10.31%[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Square-1[/TD][TD="align:right"]11.31[/TD][TD="align:right"]10.21[/TD][TD="align:right"]9.73%[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]3x3 one-handed[/TD][TD="align:right"]12.67[/TD][TD="align:right"]11.85[/TD][TD="align:right"]6.47%[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2x2 Cube[/TD][TD="align:right"]1.71[/TD][TD="align:right"]1.60[/TD][TD="align:right"]6.43%[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]3x3 blindfolded[/TD][TD="align:right"]28.87[/TD][TD="align:right"]27.51[/TD][TD="align:right"]4.71%[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]3x3 fewest moves[/TD][TD="align:right"]25.67[/TD][TD="align:right"]25.00[/TD][TD="align:right"]2.61%[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]7x7 Cube[/TD][TD="align:right"]2:52.09[/TD][TD="align:right"]2:48.03[/TD][TD="align:right"]2.36%[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]5x5 Cube[/TD][TD="align:right"]55.33[/TD][TD="align:right"]55.10[/TD][TD="align:right"]0.42%[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Rubik's Cube[/TD][TD="align:right"]6.54[/TD][TD="align:right"]6.54[/TD][TD="align:right"]0.00%[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]3x3 with feet[/TD][TD="align:right"]30.57[/TD][TD="align:right"]30.57[/TD][TD="align:right"]0.00%[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]6x6 Cube[/TD][TD="align:right"]1:51.30[/TD][TD="align:right"]1:51.30[/TD][TD="align:right"]0.00%[/TD][/TR]
[/TABLE]

Spoiler: SQL

[NOPARSE]SELECT eventId Event, wr2013 '2013[T]', wr2014 '2014[T]', (wr2013-wr2014) / wr2013 '% dropped[%]'
FROM
  (SELECT eventId, min(average) wr2013 FROM Results join Competitions on id=competitionId WHERE regionalAverageRecord='WR' AND year<=2013 GROUP BY eventId) a
  NATURAL JOIN
  (SELECT eventId, min(average) wr2014 FROM Results join Competitions on id=competitionId WHERE regionalAverageRecord='WR' AND year<=2014 GROUP BY eventId) b
  JOIN Events on id = eventId
WHERE rank < 990
ORDER BY wr2014 / wr2013;[/NOPARSE]

 

[Randomno]

Nice one, though let me add a more compact display of just the averages, ordered by % dropped.

Spoiler: WR average improvements 2014 so far

Using data from WCA_export538_20141212 and Stefan's WCA Data Tools.

[TABLE="class:grid,align:left"]
[TR][TD]Event[/TD][TD]2013[/TD][TD]2014 so far[/TD][TD]% dropped[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Pyraminx[/TD][TD="align:right"]2.96[/TD][TD="align:right"]2.56[/TD][TD="align:right"]13.51%[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Rubik's Clock[/TD][TD="align:right"]6.79[/TD][TD="align:right"]6.00[/TD][TD="align:right"]11.63%[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]4x4 Cube[/TD][TD="align:right"]29.17[/TD][TD="align:right"]26.03[/TD][TD="align:right"]10.76%[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Megaminx[/TD][TD="align:right"]47.82[/TD][TD="align:right"]42.89[/TD][TD="align:right"]10.31%[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Square-1[/TD][TD="align:right"]11.31[/TD][TD="align:right"]10.21[/TD][TD="align:right"]9.73%[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]3x3 one-handed[/TD][TD="align:right"]12.67[/TD][TD="align:right"]11.85[/TD][TD="align:right"]6.47%[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2x2 Cube[/TD][TD="align:right"]1.71[/TD][TD="align:right"]1.60[/TD][TD="align:right"]6.43%[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]3x3 blindfolded[/TD][TD="align:right"]28.87[/TD][TD="align:right"]27.51[/TD][TD="align:right"]4.71%[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]3x3 fewest moves[/TD][TD="align:right"]25.67[/TD][TD="align:right"]25.00[/TD][TD="align:right"]2.61%[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]7x7 Cube[/TD][TD="align:right"]2:52.09[/TD][TD="align:right"]2:48.03[/TD][TD="align:right"]2.36%[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]5x5 Cube[/TD][TD="align:right"]55.33[/TD][TD="align:right"]55.10[/TD][TD="align:right"]0.42%[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Rubik's Cube[/TD][TD="align:right"]6.54[/TD][TD="align:right"]6.54[/TD][TD="align:right"]0.00%[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]3x3 with feet[/TD][TD="align:right"]30.57[/TD][TD="align:right"]30.57[/TD][TD="align:right"]0.00%[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]6x6 Cube[/TD][TD="align:right"]1:51.30[/TD][TD="align:right"]1:51.30[/TD][TD="align:right"]0.00%[/TD][/TR]
[/TABLE]

Spoiler: SQL

[NOPARSE]SELECT eventId Event, wr2013 '2013[T]', wr2014 '2014[T]', (wr2013-wr2014) / wr2013 '% dropped[%]'
FROM
  (SELECT eventId, min(average) wr2013 FROM Results join Competitions on id=competitionId WHERE regionalAverageRecord='WR' AND year<=2013 GROUP BY eventId) a
  NATURAL JOIN
  (SELECT eventId, min(average) wr2014 FROM Results join Competitions on id=competitionId WHERE regionalAverageRecord='WR' AND year<=2014 GROUP BY eventId) b
  JOIN Events on id = eventId
WHERE rank < 990
ORDER BY wr2014 / wr2013;[/NOPARSE]

5x5 will be 54.20 when it gets put on the WCA.