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When and who will get the first sub-4 average

Eli Apperson

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I'm going to be optimistic and say it's possible to happen relatively soon. As cubing becomes bigger and bigger, there will be more full time solvers, and more competitions, and thus more chances to get 3-4 lucky scrambles. Max currently has a 4.27 comp sim average, and there are at least 3 others who have sub 4.5 at home averages. I'm going to say within 5 years this will happen.
 

Timona

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I'm gonna say it'll happen in 2025. To start with, the first sub-4.5 average will be by Tymon since he attends more comps than Max and he has definitely proven himself to be capable of doing it. The first sub-4.5 average might even be this year, who knows. Either Tymon, Max or Matty will get the first sub-4 average.

This isn't counted, but Tymon will break the 3x3 Single WR in the space of a year.
 

Blau

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he attends more comps than Max
well not anymore, Tymon used to attend almost all polish comps and has 360 solves from 2021 till now, whereas max only has 230 (including R1 Southeast Champ), but now the US has more and more comps and Max has more registered competitions and hence more rounds of 3x3 than Tymon.
there are at least 3 others who have sub 4.5 at home averages.
ao5:
Max 4.27/4.46 on cam
Tymon 4.39/4.86 on cam(wr)/4.74 official rolling
Yiheng 4.42 smart cube/4.83 on cam
Ruihang 4.49 on cam
Patrick 4.59
Matty 4.63/4.82 on cam
Feliks 4.7x/4.81 on cam
leo 4.79/4.99 on cam

Kyle Santucci 4.31(with suspicion)/ 5.16 on cam

ao12:
Max 4.75/4.99 on cam
Tymon 4.82/5.11 official rolling
ruihang 5.01(including 4.49ao5 on cam)

Kyle Santucci 4.91(with suspicion)
 
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turtwig

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It took almost exactly 5 years to get sub-5 after sub-6 and about 4 years to get sub-6 after sub-7. Before that, Feliks broke sub-10, sub-9, and sub-8 in the span of about 3 years. It's unlikely that this barrier will be broken faster than the previous few and much more likely that it'll take longer. Personally, I think it'll take 5-7 years to get to sub-4, leaning towards it taking longer, although I'm optimistic that it can happen before 2030. After the first sub-5 single, it took only 3 years for the first sub-4 single, but I would consider Du's solve to be a massive fluke (which are much less likely in averages). The second sub-4 was Asher's solve which happened around 6-7 years after the first sub-5, so another reason to expect the average to fall at around this rate (without the pandemic we probably would've gotten one a bit sooner but it would still fall into the 5-7 year range).

EDIT: As the post says below, Feliks actually got sub-10 to sub-8 in 1 year. I mistakenly used his chain of records from 9.21 to 7.49 (right before the 6.54) which was about 3 years.
 
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It took almost exactly 5 years to get sub-5 after sub-6 and about 4 years to get sub-6 after sub-7. Before that, Feliks broke sub-10, sub-9, and sub-8 in the span of about 3 years.
feliks actually got his first sub-12 Ao5 on the 30th of January 2010 and less than 10 months later (13th of November 2010) he got the first sub-8 Ao5
 
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